Scott Minnick, NOAA, Wakefield, VA
A wet and cool May was replaced by dry and seasonably warm conditions in June. Rainfall for much of the state ended 2 to 2.5 inches below normal, except those that received beneficial rainfall in the western portion of the state.
D-0 drought conditions have crept into the central part of the state, where rainfall amounts were only 25 to 50% of normal. Rainfall expected on July 6-7 should help alleviate some of those drought concerns. The seasonably warm and dry trend continued in early July, with medium range guidance indicating that the trend will continue through at least the middle of the month.
The occasional cold front will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some possible short lived relief from the July heat. However, long term guidance indicates that the latter half of the month could turn hot and dry. The Climate Prediction Center has highlighted the state for increased probabilities for above normal temperatures. However, there is less confidence in the precipitation forecast due to the nature of typical summer time convection. As a result, the forecast is for equal chances for above, below, or near-normal rainfall. July is one of the wetter months of the year, with an average of 3.5 to 4 inches for the month. July is also the climatological warmest month of the year, with average highs in the mid to upper 80’s, and lows in the mid to upper 60’s.
