September 2020 WASDE Summary

Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland

Information from USDA WASDE report

Attached is the summary for the September 11 WASDE.

Corn

Harvested acres estimate was adjusted down 0.5 million acres and yield estimates were adjusted down 3.3 bushels to 178.5 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks were adjusted up slightly but the net effect in total supply was a decrease of 353 million bushels. Domestic demand estimate was decreased by 200 million bushels but exports were increased by 100 million bushels so the net effect in demand total was a decrease of 100 million bushel. So the ending stock estimates were down by 253 million bushel decreasing the stocks to use ratio from 18.7% to 17.1%. This anticipated decrease in ending stocks has been factored into the market as the December futures price increased this past month from $3.27 on August 12 (last WASDE) to $3.70 on September 11.

Soybeans
Yield estimates for the 2020/21 crop year were adjusted down from 53.3 bushels per acre estimated in August to 51.9 bushels per acre current estimate. Beginning stocks were also adjusted down by 35 million bushel. These two changes resulted in a decrease of 152 million bushel in estimated 2020/21 supply. On the demand side, the only change was a decrease of 2 million bushel in residual. The resulting estimate of ending stocks was decreased by 150 million bushels decreasing the Ending stocks to use ratio from 13.7% from 10.4%. Just like corn, soybean futures market prices (November) have spiked during the past month from $8.83 per bushel on August 12 to $9.93 on September 11.

Wheat
There were no changes in the wheat supply and demand estimates. However, wheat futures prices (September) have followed corn and soybean prices and increased from $4.91 per bushel on August 11 to $5.35 on September 11.

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