Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland
Information from USDA WASDE report
Attached is the summary for the January 2021 WASDE.
This is all good news for farmers who still have crops in storage.
Corn
Yield estimate was adjusted down 0.5 bushels per acre from 175.8 to 172. This decreased production estimate 325 million bushels. Beginning stocks were adjusted down 76 million bushels. The two combined for a decrease of 400 million bushel in the supply estimate. Domestic demand estimate was decreased by 150 million bushels and the export estimate was decreased 100 million bushels for a decrease in the total demand estimate of 250 million bushel. The net effect of supply and demand decreased ending stocks 150 million bushels and the stocks-to-use ratio from 11.5% to 10.6%. This is the lowest stock-to-use ratio since the 2013/14 marketing year. These anticipated changes have been reflected in the market as March futures price for corn has skyrocketed almost $1.00/bu. this past month from $4.20/bu. on December 8 to a high of $5.17/bu. on January 12.
Soybeans
Yield estimate was adjusted down 1.2 bushels per acre from 50.7 to 50.2. This resulted in a decrease of 35 million bushel in estimated 2020/21 supply. Beginning stocks were adjusted up 2 million bushel and imports were adjusted up 20 million bushel. On the demand side, crushings were adjusted up 5 million bushels, exports were adjusted up 30 million bushels, and residual was adjusted down 13 million bushels. These adjustments resulted in a 21 million bushels increase in the total demand estimate. The resulting estimate of ending stocks was decreased by 35 million bushels decreasing the stocks-to-use ratio to a very low 3.1%. This is the lowest stock-to-use ratio since the 2013/14 marketing year. The March futures price for soybeans has spiked $2.71/bu. in the past month from $11.72 on December 8 to $14.23 on January 12.
Wheat
There were no adjustments in the supply side estimates. The demand estimate was increased by 26 million bushel (seed & feed) so the ending stock estimate was adjusted down 26 million bushels and the stocks-to-use ratio decreased from 40.8% in December to 39.1% in January. March wheat futures prices increased from $5.70/bu. on December 8 to $6.65/bu. on January 12.
