Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland
Information from USDA WASDE report
Attached is the summary for the August 2022 WASDE.
Corn
This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, slightly higher food, seed, and industrial use, smaller exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2021/22, where a reduction in corn used for ethanol is partially offset by greater use for glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection. Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Yields in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast below a year ago. Iowa is unchanged. Total U.S. corn use for 2022/23 is reduced 45 million bushels to 14.5 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected higher based on observed use during 2021/22. Exports for 2022/23 are cut 25 million bushels to 2.4 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are lowered 82 million bushels to 1.4 billion.
Soybean
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2021/22 exports. Soybean production for 2022/23 is forecast at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million with higher yields more than offsetting lower harvested area. Harvested area is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 0.3 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre is raised 0.4 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2022/23 are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, up 36 million from last month. U.S. soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to 2.16 billion on increased supplies. Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, up 15 million.
Wheat
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, higher domestic use and exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production forecast at 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month. Food use is raised 6 million bushels to 970 million, based primarily on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued August 1. The report indicated record wheat flour millings in the April-June quarter, which resulted in raising 2021/22 food use to a record 972 million bushels. Wheat exports for 2022/23 are increased 25 million bushels to 825 million with most of the upward adjustment for Soft Red Winter and White, based on competitive export prices. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 29 million bushels to 610 million.
