We are requesting your assistance with gathering farmer participation in an online simulation exercise. As part of a NRCS CIG grant, UMD is leading a team of researchers from UMD, UD, and PSU to better understand how to better incentivize the adoption of novel nitrogen management practices in corn. We have a team of behavioral economists from UD as project partners and they have developed this simulation to help us better understand how to increase farmer adoption of practices through incentives and rewards.
If you are a farmer, we would greatly appreciate your feedback using this Google Form. Upon completion of the Google Form, participants will receive a link to the simulation and unique participation code via email within minutes. In the simulation, participants will make corn sidedress decisions on a simulated field over ten growing seasons and their choices will help us understand how they chose to adopt novel practices (or not). The exercise should take no longer than 30 minutes, and you can earn Nutrient Management credits for your participation, AND earn cash up to $150.
Please contact Dr. Nicole Fiorellino at nfiorell@umd.edu if you have any questions.
Nidhi Rawat, Small Grains Pathologist University of Maryland
Welcome to the wheat and barley heading and flowering season, Maryland! This is the first FHB risk forecast for this season from me, and I will continue to provide you with regular commentaries over the next 6-7 weeks. Wheat is some weeks away from flowering, but barley is starting/ will soon start to head, especially in the Eastern shore of the state. Unfortunately, for barley, there are no FHB-resistant varieties available so far. So, if you have planted barley, keep monitoring closely for the FHB risk over the next couple of weeks. With the rainy spell of the last week, and some more rain forecasted this week, currently, the Epidemiological models are showing elevated FHB risk over the next 6 days. So, if your barley is starting heading you might consider applying fungicides on it. If you are still some weeks away from your barley heading, keep monitoring for the risk. Remember, the best stage for applying FHB fungicides on barley is when the heads are completely out of the boots. The FHB fungicides are triazole-containing products (Miravis-Ace, Prosaro, Prosaro-Pro, Sphaerex). Do not apply strobilurin-containing fungicides after heading. Wheat is not at a stage susceptible to FHB right now.
Some barley growers from across the state reported stunting, yellowing, and death of barley plants in their fields. The most probable cause of this issue in my opinion is freeze injury. Sudden dips in temperature after the plants caught up after winter may have led to the issue. I have discussed this issue with the other regional pathologists from the US, and they also report similar issues in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New York. They also think it to be a result of cold injury.
Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate | mtownsen@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension, Frederick County
Grain markets have slid significantly from the highs posted last summer that followed the perceived drought in the Midwest.
Image Credit: Barchart: December ‘24 Corn Contract from June 2023 to April 3, 2024.
Unfortunately, these drought concerns were generally unfounded as key growing areas received timely rains to keep yields from suffering in the corn belt. In fact, the U.S. set a new corn production record at 15.234 billion bushels topping the previous record set in 2016 at 15.148 billion bushels. The trifecta of a record large U.S. crop, a large Brazilian corn crop, as well as underwhelming domestic and export demand sent prices spiraling lower from August 2023 to February 2024. The March ‘24 Corn contract traded at three-year lows on February 26th dipping below $4 following 11 consecutive week-over-week price declines.
Soybeans were unfortunately no better, falling $2.90 from their summer high ($14.18) to their low ($11.28) in the March ‘24 contract. Much of the same stories plagued this market including an unrealized weather rally and outstandingly large South American production that punished U.S. export demand.
To add insult to injury, “the Funds”—traders in the market who manage money for clients as either hedges or other investment strategies hit a record 340,732 net short position in the corn market on February 20th. Simply stated, these traders placed the largest-ever bet on corn prices continuing to decline, which has placed a metaphorical wet-blanket on any hopes of a rally.
Today
Grains have rallied from the end of February and throughout March. The inflection point was the last day of notice for March hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contracts. To that point, sellers (farmers, dealers, etc.) had the choice of pricing corn at current prices or “rolling” the contract to the May contract. The bleak outlook forced many hands and stimulated selling which pulled prices lower until the selling pressure was over.
Since then, both the corn and soybean markets have rallied off the lows and recovered to price levels previously seen in early February. The upward momentum has been driven by a phenomenon known as “short covering” that creates a positive feedback loop–the more it happens, the more it happens. As prices rise, “The Funds” in their net short position lose money as their bet has turned against them. To stop this, they must exit their position by buying a contract to offset the one they previously sold1. The buying stimulates further price increases that induce another fund manager having to offset their short position. At its extreme, this feedback loop can throw prices to astronomical levels2. In this case, the bump is a welcomed change but is unlikely to send us much higher for now.
More recently, the USDA released its Prospective Plantings Report compiled from surveys asking farmers their planting intentions this season. The report suggests growers will plant 90 million acres of corn and 86 million acres of soybeans, indicating that growers are shifting acres away from corn to soybeans. This was unsurprising, however traders found this as good news as the nearby contracts in both markets traded higher the day of the report. However, traders are generally wary of this recent report given the low farmer response rate and the tendency for acreage figures to climb with subsequent USDA planting reports.
Season Outlook:
The saying, “all models are wrong, but some are useful” may hold true for commodity market predictions as well; there is a significant degree of uncertainty in any market that can render any forecast absolutely incorrect. As such, this is not meant to be a forecast but more of an observation of trends and conditions that may prove useful.
Supply and Demand Fundamentals
Image Credit: Barchart. CFTC Commitment of Traders in the Corn Market (all contracts).
Every market most fundamentally relies on the interplay between supply and demand. Currently in the grains, supply has outstripped demand. Following last year’s record crop, U.S. corn supply is almost burdensome.
A common metric that evaluates how efficiently we use the crop we grow is the Ending Stocks-to-Use (S/U) ratio derived from the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) each month. Currently, the USDA projects the 2024/25 ending stocks (that which we will not use from the crop we’re about to plant) at 2.53 billion bushels and an S/U ratio of 17.2%–a level we have not seen since the 2006 when corn traded at an average price of $2.62/bu. This current 2023/24 marketing year (ending Sept. 1, 2024) is currently pegged at 14.9% S/U ratio–well higher than the 7-10% range of the last three years and the 12.6% historical average.
The soybean side of things is only marginally better and certainly not rosy by any stretch. The current S/U ratio projection for this year’s crop is 9.9% with the current marketing year sitting at 7.6%. Both these figures are a far cry from the burdensome supplies we accrued during the 2018-2019 trade war with China (22.9% S/U) yet they signal a surplus of soybeans.
Market Movers
With the current fundamentals dreary at best, it’s pleasant to think of those things that could actually help prices higher.
Midwestern drought conditions continue to worsen throughout the growing season. US weather conditions are a significant driver of price action in the growing season–as exemplified by last year. Currently, some of the Midwest is experiencing a moderate drought, with some agronomists questioning the subsoil moisture levels before planting. Importantly, drought conditions would have to persist throughout the growing season well past planting. Generally, drought is bearish to corn in April and May as Midwest growers can plant at a breakneck pace just in time for timely rains that pull yields higher and prices lower. As evidenced by last year, corn did not rally until late-May over weather concerns and in 2012, corn did not rally until mid-June. Both these years indicate that prices will likely stay mixed until real concern over crop condition emerges during the growing season.
The South American (Brazil + Argentina) soybean production is lower than expected, improving export demand for U.S. soybeans. Soybean harvest in Brazil is nearing completion, however final production estimates remain volatile. The same is true with South American corn production: a supply-side shock could support U.S. corn prices. Brazil has completed corn planting this last week of its large safrinha corn crop. Currently, much of the key corn growing regions are in a minor drought or have experiences greater than normal rainfall. More serious and persistent crop-damaging weather events could certainly be a boon to the U.S. market.
Recently, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will likely keep the Federal Funds rate higher for longer–increasing borrowing costs. If this holds true, investors may find themselves less attracted to debt and equity markets as companies may have a more difficult time generating earnings. Instead, investors may revert back to commodities–a market often seen as a hedge against inflation–as they did in 2022. As mentioned above, this may trigger a significant unwinding of short positions which could carry the market to higher prices. Unfortunately, this is likely the most unlikely scenario for increasing commodity prices as equities soar to all time highs in recent weeks.
So What Can We Do About It?
Marketing grain in 2024 will likely be challenging on all fronts. Put another way, given the current outlook, it is incredibly unlikely that selling grain in the fall at harvest prices will be a winning strategy. Similarly, it’s unlikely that an unhedged, unpriced JFM ‘25 sale will offer anything better as there are additional storage costs involved. That said, developing a preharvest marketing strategy may very well be a key to success this marketing season. Betting on the aforementioned weather stories is hardly a marketing plan.
Like every year the first step is knowing your cost of production inside and out. Marketing opportunities will present themselves, but it will take knowing what is and what is not a good price. With today’s relatively high input costs, “yielding your way out” of low prices is more challenging than previous years. Therefore it may be more crucial than ever to make judicious agronomic decisions.
Take advantage of seasonal market patterns. Generally speaking, we see 3-6% increase in corn and soybean prices between mid-March and late-May from their post-harvest lows in January. As old crop marketing wanes, and concerns over the current year’s crop emerges (like the weather), prices rise slowly during this time. It may be best to price some grain sooner rather than later to take advantage of this general trend. Put it more directly; from May 1st to October 1st, corn prices fall more than $0.30, 74% of the time. Would you bet on something weighted 75% against you?
Track local basis. Generally, basis tends to follow broader market conditions especially when it comes to spreads between nearby and more distant contracts. Seasonal trends in basis also exist with harvest often being the low point and spring generally higher.
Keep a watchful eye on the markets this season. It may be such that prices are favorable for a day or two before they fall back lower.
Please also consider attending a University of Maryland Extension grain marketing meeting. These meetings are filled with all the above strategies, general information, and more that could help you with your marketing decisions.
Best of luck to you all. Here’s to blue skies and high prices!
Reports are for crop conditions up to April 5, 2024.
Western Maryland
Wet, wet, wet. This spring is off to a very different start than last year. Late winter and early spring have gone a long way in replenishing soil moisture and groundwater. Soil temperature and moisture will delay planting for a few weeks, but we are happy to have the moisture. Chicken litter, dairy manure, and first-pass nitrogen have been applied. These rains are now filling pits uncharacteristically. We are seeing Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus in some triticale. This is new since triticale was once thought to be resistant to everything. Next fall, we will need to think about scouting for aphids. All in all we are off to a better start than 2023.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.
Central Maryland
We’ve had quite the up and down with the weather this month. A few days in mid-March brought highs into the 60s, but most of the month has been cooler (lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s). In the past week, areas around the region have received 2 or more inches of rain. Soil temperatures have hovered around 50 degrees F. Green-up and manure applications have gone out. Looking forward to some warmer weather next week!—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.
Northern Maryland
The past week has been cool and wet, which has been the story for most of the winter/early spring thus far. Field work has been very limited due to all the rain; second shot of nitrogen on wheat and weed control is needed as soon as the weather turns. Soil temperatures are still cool and the first seeds will not be going in the ground any time soon. Cover crops and small grains are generally variable across fields and winter annual weeds have been noticeably abundant this spring.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.
Upper and Mid Shore
No report.
Lower Shore
It’s been a wet spring, which has interrupted farm activities. Many fields are waterlogged or flooded. Farmers have been applying manure as they can get into fields. Most cover crops are still growing, which has been helpful to keep the rain water in the crop fields. No corn or soybean has been planted yet.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.
Southern Maryland
Rains continue to fall with only a few days here and there suitable for field work. Farmers are practicing patience as much work remains spreading litter/manure, applying herbicides and completing field operations. If weather conditions allow, planting will commence in a couple of weeks. Soils are wet and cold at present. Small grain crops are at jointing stage. Most wheat acreage received a first application of N with the second application being made when field conditions allow. Aphids have been active in some fields. Alfalfa got off to an early start this year, and growers are encouraged to scout for alfalfa weevil which has also been active. In So MD, most populations are resistant to pyrethroids, leaving Steward as the best option. Cool season grass hayfields are greening up now. On the weed front, Virginia Pepperweed seems to be more prevalent this year. Marestail and Common Ragweed are around and need to be controlled prior to planting. Burndown applications are being made in preparation for planting. With cooler temperatures, we may struggle to kill larger Italian ryegrass, brassicas, and cereal grain with standard rates of glyphosate.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.
Andrew Kness, Senior Agriculture Agent | akness@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension, Harford County
Various fungal pathogens can infect seedling soybeans and cause disease, especially beans planted early into cool and/or wet soils. Fungicide seed treatments have varying levels of efficacy against these pathogens, so it is important that your seed is treated with the correct chemical for the pathogens you are trying to manage in your field. The table below can be used to compare fungicide seed treatment efficacy against various soilborne pathogens of soybean. Note that fungicide seed treatments will provide about 2-4 weeks of protection. These tables are produced by the Crop Protection Network and the full publication can be accessed at cropprotectionnetwork.org.
Jarrod Miller1, Agronomy Extension Specialist | jarrod@udel.edu and Nicole Fiorellino2, Agronomy Extension Specialist 1University of Delaware |2University of Maryland, College Park
15″ (right) vs. 30″ (left) soybeans.
Soybean Row Spacing and Population Studies
Modern soybean varieties can tolerate lower seeding rates and still produce good yields, providing there are no other issues with stand loss or stress. In southern Delaware two studies (2022 and 2023) observed no yield difference when planting full season beans (MG 4.2, late May planting date) when planted between 60,000 to 180,000 seeds per acre (Figure 1). You may consider dropping your seeding rates, considering your regional weather, planting date, and soil conditions.
Figure 1. Soybean yields by a) population, row spacing, and irrigation in 2022 (average yields below the legend) and b) irrigated yields by population and row spacing in 2023. Soybeans were planted in a coastal southern- Delaware climate.
Over both years, 15” row spacing provided an 8-to-10-bushel advantage compared to 30” rows. A narrower row spacing helps soybeans canopy faster, providing more leaf area per acre to increase yields. Water is consistently a major yield limiting factor, where irrigation boosted yields by 26 bushels in 2022. All these yield differences were statistically significant
Maryland and Delaware Planting Date Studies
Planting soybeans earlier can provide more vegetative growth before flowering commences, closing the canopy earlier and providing more nodes for pods. In years prior, soybeans would be planted after corn, so that early planting usually referred to May. Now we may consider late April to be early, and many mid-western studies have observed yields steadily decline as soybeans are planted later into May. Even when you choose to plant earlier, colder soils (<50°F) and saturated conditions can limit germination and growth. What is considered early for the Mid-Atlantic though, where our climates range from Coastal to Appalachian?
Between 2020-2022, University of Maryland and University of Delaware performed planting date trials for soybeans from lower Delaware (Georgetown) to the mid-shore (Wye Rec, MD), piedmont (Clarksville, MD), and Ridge & Valley (Keedysville). All planting dates were at least two weeks apart, typically starting in mid-April (weather and field conditions permitting) and the final planting date in mid to late May (Table 1).
Table 1. Planting dates for each site and year of the study for early, mid, and later planting dates.
Site
Year
Early (1)
Mid (2)
Late (3)
Delaware
2020
8-May
21-May
4-Jun
2021
12-Apr
28-Apr
10-May
2022
13-Apr
26-Apr
11-May
Wye
2021
23-Apr
12-May
28-May
2022
2-May
23-May
7-Jun
Clarksville
2021
21-Apr
5-May
19-May
2022
18-Apr
2-May
28-May
Keedysville
2021
11-May
28-May
7-Jun
2022
28-Apr
11-May
31-May
Although earlier planting (April) did produce earlier canopy closure and sometimes earlier flowering, yields were only statistically different at two site years, the Wye and Clarksville in 2021 (Figure 3). The latest planting date at the Wye (May 28th) did have the lowest yields, compared to either April 23 or May 12, 2021. In Clarksville, yields were higher on the latest planting date of May 19th, compared to April 21st or May 5th. This could be due to the timing of rainfall or temperature conditions during early stages that season, as there was a lot of variability for the first two planting dates in yield.
For the other seven site by year combinations, there was no benefit to planting earlier, but there was also no yield penalty (Figure 3). In fact, we purposely did not apply a seed treatment to provide a more suitable environment for disease pressure. At the UD site in 2021, one row unit planted too deep in April, but yields remained similar to May planting. Freeze damage at UD in 2022 cause the death of some leaf and cotyledon tissue, but the soybeans recovered and matched later planted yields.
As there was no clear benefit to planting in mid to late April for soybeans, planting decisions can be made based on field suitability, disease presence, or tillage and soil temperatures. As noted in the population studies above, these decisions should be matched with local knowledge of yield potential, planting dates, and potential freeze damage.
Figure 3. Soybean yields based on early (1), mid (2), and later (3) planting dates for soybeans in Delaware (UD), the Wye Rec, MD, Clarksville Rec (CV), MD, and Keedysville Rec (KV), MD.
Shannon Dill, Principal Agriculture Agent | sdill@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension, Talbot County
The University of Maryland Extension has updated www.go.umd.edu/grainmarketing site with new input data and spray programs for the 2024 field crop budgets.
Crop Budgets
Cost of production is very important when making decisions related to your farm enterprise and grain marketing. Preliminary surveys from 2024 UME Winter Crop Production meetings report 66% of farmers believe input costs are the greatest challenges facing their farm operation. Enterprise budgets provide valuable information regarding individual enterprises on the farm. This tool enables farm managers to make decisions regarding enterprises and plan for the coming production year. An enterprise budget uses farm revenue, variable cost, fixed cost, and net income to provide a clear picture of the financial health of each farm enterprise.
The 2024 Maryland enterprise budgets were developed using average yields and estimated input costs based on producer and farm supplier data. Fertilizer prices, pesticide availability, and fuel expenses have fluctuated greatly. The figures presented are averages and vary greatly from one farm and region to the other. It is, therefore, crucial to input actual farm data when completing enterprise budgets for your farm.
Cost Per Acre, 2024
Year
Corn
No Till
Corn
Conventional
Soybeans
Wheat
Wheat/Beans
2021
$540
$592
$346
$401
$608
2023
$736
$800
$423
$538
$800
2024
$690
$749
$410
$514
$752
Difference 23-24
-$46
-$51
-$13
-$24
-$48
Percent Change
-6%
-6%
-3%
-4%
-6%
How to Use University Enterprise Budgets
The enterprise budgets can be used as a baseline for your operation, and you can change these budgets to include your production techniques, inputs, and overall management. The budgets are available electronically in PDF or Excel. Use this document as a start or reference to create your crop budgets. Contact information is on the website if you have problems downloading any information.
2024 Crop Summary
Cost per acre expenses for 2024 have decreased a small amount from 2023 record highs. Based on estimates received cost of production includes: corn no-till costs $690 per acre, corn conventional $749 per acre, soybeans $410 per acre and wheat $514 per acre. While these are slightly (3-6%) lower than 2023 they are still 16%-22% higher than prices just 3 years ago (2021).
Kurt Vollmer, Weed Management Specialist | kvollmer@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension
Italian ryegrass has been giving us trouble the past couple of years. I’ve had several reports of ryegrass control failures following glyphosate applications. Last year, seeds from 49 ryegrass populations from Maryland and Delaware were screened for glyphosate-resistance by Dr. Caio Brunharo’s lab at Penn State. Out of 40 populations screened, all were controlled by glyphosate at 2 lb. ae/A.
This indicates that recent troubles controlling ryegrass may be due to application issues rather than glyphosate-resistance. This species can be particularly tricky to manage this time of the year, so it’s important to remember:
Cold weather affects glyphosate uptake and translocation. Applications should be made when the temperature is greater than 55°F and consistently remain above 45°F for 3 to 5 days to be effective.
Higher rates will be needed to control ryegrass compared to other species (1.25 to 1.5 lb. ae a/A).
Plants should be less than 6” but no more than 8” tall at the time of application.
Other components in the tank can also affect glyphosate performance.
Include a spray grade ammonium sulfate (8.5lb. to 17lb. /100 gal) in the tank to abate water quality issues. UAN and high rates of triazine herbicides (>0.25 lb. ai/A), such as atrazine, that are included in the tank can also reduce glyphosate absorption and translocation.
If glyphosate alone fails, try tank mixing or alternative herbicides. Last year at the Lower Eastern Shore REC, 98% ryegrass control was achieved with glyphosate (1.25 lb. ae/A) + clethodim (0.121 lb. /A) + nonionic surfactant (0.25%v/v) + AMS (8.5lb./100 gal) or sequential applications of paraquat (1 lb/A) + crop oil (1%v/v) + AMS (8.5lb./100 gal) made 14 days apart (Figure 1). In trials conducted in Pennsylvania, glyphosate + 0.02 lb. rimsulfuron/A also controlled ryegrass greater than 95%. Always consult the label for important information such as tank mixing and plant back intervals before applying any pesticide.
Figure 1. Italian ryegrass response 22 days after application to a) non-treated, b) glyphosate + clethodim, c) paraquat fb paraquat plots. Images: K. Vollmer, University of Maryland.
An Agricultural Technician is sought to provide technical support for the State Extension Agronomist with applied research and extension programming. This program performs applied research at seven UMD Research and Education Centers located across the state related to the production of corn, soybean, wheat, barley, and other crops of interest to Maryland producers. The incumbent may assist with research performed at private farms within Maryland. The incumbent will also assist with Extension programming, including preparation for field days, twilight tours, or other educational events.
To view the complete listing and to apply, go to https://ejobs.umd.edu/postings/117883. Best consideration date is April 4, 2023 and all applications must be submitted through the website. For questions or inquiries, contact Nicole Fiorellino at nfiorell@umd.edu.
College Park, MD – The University of Maryland and the University of Delaware will host the Hiring and Retaining Farm Employees – What you Need to Know and Do four webinars every Friday in April at noon starting on April 5th and ending on April 26. The free webinars will cover developing an employee handbook for your operation, basic legal requirements, and how to incorporate benefits that agricultural employers deal with. The funding for this program is thanks to the Northeast Risk Management Education Center.
The webinar schedule includes:
April 5: Introduction to the Employer Guide and Workbook – Nate Bruce, Farm Business Management Specialist, UD Cooperative Extension;
April 12: Finding the right person, Employee Handbook, Paul Goeringer, Sr. Faculty Specialist and Extension Specialist, UMD
April 19: Overview of health insurance options with case study, Jesse Ketterman, PhD, AFC, Senior Agent, University of Maryland Extension
April 26: Overview retirement savings options with case study, Maria Pippidis, Extension Educator, Financial Wellness, University of Delaware Cooperative Extension;
“This program will be a great opportunity for agricultural employers to get valuable information on their legal responsibilities and options,” said Paul Goeringer. “This information will be useful for any employer, regardless of the size of the operation,” said Goeringer.
For more information or to register for the webinars, go to https://bit.ly/3uwXmdx – and do not hesitate to reach out to Paul Goeringer at lgoering@umd.edu if you have any questions.
This material is based upon work supported by USDA/NIFA under Award Number 2021‐70027‐34693.
