Category: Corn

October 2023 Grain Market Update

Information from USDA WASDE report

Attached is the summary for the October 2023 WASDE.

Corn

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and exports, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million on a cut in yield to 173.0 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, a decline of 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced by 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2023/24 are lowered 110 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel.

Soybean

Soybean production is forecast at 4.1 billion bushels, down 42 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 82.8 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 49.6 bushels per acre, down 0.5 bushels from the September forecast. The largest production changes are for Kansas, Michigan, and Nebraska. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 24 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 35 million bushels to 1.76 billion with increased competition from South America. Soybean crush is projected at 2.3 billion bushels, up 10 million, driven by higher soybean meal exports and soybean oil domestic demand. Soybean oil domestic use is raised in line with an increase for 2022/23. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 220 million bushels. 

Wheat

The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for higher supplies, increased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 85 million bushels, primarily on higher production as reported in the NASS Small Grains Annual Summary, released September 29. Domestic use is raised 30 million bushels, all on higher feed and residual use. The NASS Grain Stocks report released September 29 indicated a higher year-to-year increase for first quarter (June-August) domestic disappearance than previously expected. Exports remain at 700 million bushels with several offsetting by-class changes. Projected ending stocks are raised by 55 million bushels to 670 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season average farm price is reduced $0.20 per bushel to $7.30 on higher projected stocks and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.

Tar Spot Confirmed in Additional Counties in Maryland

Andrew Kness, Senior Agriculture Agent | akness@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Harford County

During the month of September we have confirmed the presence of tar spot of corn in four additional counties in Maryland. Fields with tar spot in Queen Anne’s and Kent County were found on September 19, Baltimore County on September 22, and Caroline County on September 25, and Dorchester County on October 6. This brings the confirmed distribution from Carroll County east to Cecil and south on the shore to Dorchester County (Figure 1). In my scouting travels a few weeks ago on the eastern shore, I was able to find tar spot in two out of a dozen fields that I visited.

Figure 1. Tar spot confirmed distribution as of October 9, 2023. Map downloaded from https://corn.ipmpipe.org/tarspot/.

Note that this is the confirmed distribution—this is not to say that you will not find it outside of these reported counties; as a matter of fact, I’d be surprised if it’s not out there in several other areas across the state. As you harvest corn this fall, it might not be a bad idea to hop out of the cab and check around. Tar spot can still be visible on dry, senesced tissue. The signs of tar spot are dark black, raised spots that resemble spattered black paint (Figure 2). These spots are the reproductive structures of the fungus, Phyllachora maydis. These structures, called stromata, are embedded in the leaf tissue, are slightly raised (visible under a hand lens), and cannot be rubbed or scratched off the leaf.

Figure 2. Signs of tar spot on corn.

When you are scouting you may notice several look-alikes that can fool you. Insect frass (poop) is one that looks very similar but you can wipe the spots off the leaf. You may also notice other fungi present on senesced tissue, giving the leaves a black appearance. These fungi are not tar spot but are instead secondary decomposers—i.e. they colonize dead plant tissue. You can distinguish these fungi from tar spot by looking closely at the spots. Tar spot will be strikingly dark black against the dead tissue and slightly raised, whereas these secondary fungi are less distinct and not raised (Figure 3). Also, tar spot infections start on green tissue that is still alive, so check the few green leaves that are still present for signs.

Figure 3. Tar spot on a senesced corn leaf vs. look-a-likes. Stromata are still easily visible on dead leaves. Dull, faded/blurred spots are not tar spot.

As far as management considerations for this year and moving into 2024: tillage has varied success and generally has very little effect on tar spot. While tar spot does overwinter on old crop residue and tillage can help accelerate residue decomposition, research from the Midwest has shown highly inconsistent responses to tillage for managing tar spot. A couple of reasons for this is because tar spot can be wind-blown short distances; and with the concentration of corn fields present in many areas of the state, inoculum can blow into “clean” fields from nearby infected fields. Another reason that tillage doesn’t have a major effect is because most tillage equipment (besides a moldboard plow) leaves at least some residue on the soil surface. Those exposed crop residues can be enough to get an infection started the following year.

A more effective management tactic to consider is hybrid genetics. While there is no complete resistance to tar spot, there are hybrids that tolerate it much better than others. Using more resistant hybrids next year can help manage this disease, especially in fields where you suspect that tar spot could be an issue. In addition, you can use planting date and hybrid maturity to your advantage. The combination of early planting and a early-maturing hybrids can be used to “avoid” tar spot infections by having corn beyond its critical growth stages (VT-R2) before cooler weather sets in later in the season, which is favorable to tar spot infection.

If you find tar spot in your fields, please report it by emailing akness@umd.edu or submitting a report at https://corn.ipmpipe.org/reporting-form/.

September 2023 Grain Market Update

Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland

Information from USDA WASDE report

Attached is the summary for the September 2023 WASDE.

Corn

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for slightly larger supplies and ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 5 million bushels lower based on mostly offsetting trade and corn used for ethanol changes for 2022/23. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, up 23 million from last month as greater harvested area more than offsets a reduction in yield. The national average yield is forecast at 173.8 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 87.1 million acres, up 0.8 million. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 14.4 billion. With supply rising slightly and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 19 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $4.90 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include lower beginning stocks, production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect an increase for exports in 2022/23. Soybean production is projected at 4.1 billion bushels, down 59 million with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.1 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 50.1 bushels per acre is down 0.8 bushels from last month. The soybean crush forecast is reduced 10 million bushels and the export forecast is reduced 35 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, down 25 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.90 per bushel, up $0.20 from last month. The soybean meal price is unchanged at $380 per short ton and the soybean oil price is raised 1.0 cent to 63.0 cents per pound. Other changes this month include higher peanut and lower cottonseed production.

Wheat

The 2023/24 U.S. all wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month with offsetting by-class changes on exports. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is also unchanged at $7.50 per bushel.

Tar Spot Confirmed in Maryland for 2023

Andrew Kness, Senior Agriculture Agent | akness@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Harford County

Figure 1. Regional map of tar spot of corn for the 2023 growing season. Map generated from ipmpipe.org/tarspot.

Tar spot of corn has been confirmed in Maryland for the 2023 growing season. The first report came from a field in Cecil county on August 22, followed by several additional reports in Harford and Carroll county (Figure 1).

Tar spot is a relatively new fugal disease of corn in the United States and it was confirmed for the first time in Maryland in August of 2022. As daytime and nighttime temperatures begin to decline, now is a good time to look for symptoms in your corn fields. Tar spot is favored by cooler temperatures (60-70s), as well as prolonged periods (7+ hours) of leaf wetness from rainfall, dew, or humidity. Tar spot can cause infected plants to senesce prematurely, which can adversely affect yield, especially if infection occurs early in the reproductive stages. Yield losses are not as severe if infection occurs later in the reproductive stages.

Tar spot spores overwinter in old corn crop residue and are deposited onto corn leaves via splashing rain or wind (spores are only wind-blown for very short distances). Once a spore lands on corn tissue, it will germinate and infect the plant as long as the environmental conditions remain conducive. After an incubation period of about 14-21 days, black reproductive structures, called stroma, are visible on the leaf surface (Figure 2). These structures resemble black paint or tar, hence the name “tar spot.”

Figure 2. Symptoms of tar spot on corn leaf. Black specks are the reproductive structures of the fungus.

If you find tar spot in your field, you may want to take precautions to try to prevent its spread during harvest, as you could potentially inoculate new fields by bringing infected residue into the next harvested field. If you’re harvesting an infested field, it would be a good idea to try to remove as much corn fodder off of the equipment before moving to the next field.

Preparations for managing tar spot in 2024 should start in the winter with good seed selection. If possible, choose hybrids with good tar spot resistance (there is no complete resistance); seed companies are starting to rate hybrids for their tar spot resistance/tolerance.

If you find tar spot in your field, I would be interested in knowing about it. We have a grant from the Maryland Grain Producer’s Utilization Board and one objective of the study is to determine the distribution of tar spot in Maryland. Call (410-638-3255) or email me (akness@umd.edu); or submit a report at corn.ipmpipe.org.

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: August 2023

Reports are for crop conditions up to August 3, 2023.

Western Maryland

Dry, dry, dry. Full season beans and corn are showing signs of drought stress. Many double crop beans are spotty and stressed. Hay yields are low so this winter could bring some hard decisions. The weatherman is giving us some hope with rain in the forecast but we have heard those predictions before only do be disappointed. The high heat has subsided and cooler overnight and morning temperatures are a welcome relief.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland 

Scattered thunderstorms have resulted in above, at, or below typical rainfall for the month of July, depending on what part of the county you’re located in. For the year, though, we’ve received 50-100% of normal rainfall. Corn at R2-R3, and soybeans at R1-R2. We continue to catch zero moths in the fall armyworm trap or western bean cutworm traps. Japanese beetles are clipping corn silks, but with the kernels already pollinated, that should not cause yield damage. Insect pests are present in soybeans, but in low numbers.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.

The corn crop is finishing pollination and entering the early stages of kernel development. Recent scouting trips have revealed significant curling of upper leaves above the ear given the recent spell of dry weather. Interestingly, grey leaf spot is abundant in the central and lower portions of the county, though the majority of the infection appeared to be localized to the lower canopy away from the ear leaf. Full season soybeans are ending flowering and beginning pod-fill, while double crop beans are in the later stages of vegetative development and will shortly begin flowering. Japanese Beetle pressure in soybeans has been of primary concern with some fields reaching greater than 60% defoliation. Forage crop regrowth is limited at best given spotty rains, however quality is generally terrific.—Mark Townsend, Frederick Co.

Northern Maryland

Most of the region was fortunate to get sufficient and consistent rainfall for much of July needed for pollination in corn; although there are some areas in Carroll County that have remained excessively dry. Most of the corn crop has pollinated by now; looking at some ears, 16 rows around is quite common; I believe we lost a couple rows around due to the drought in May and June. With continued rainfall hopefully we can make up for it in kernels per row and kernel depth. Most soybeans are R3 and have very little disease or insect pressure. Double crop soybeans are out of the ground and growing rapidly. Some second cutting of hay was made but some farmers are holding off due to the slow regrowth.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper and Mid Shore

Most of the region has received adequate rainfall over the past few weeks with some areas getting excessive amounts.  Corn yields will probably be pushing record yields again in most areas. Soybeans have excellent potential but still need rainfall to fill the pods. Most corn fields received a fungicide application whether needed or not. Stinkbugs are present in most fields. Troublesome weeds are outgrowing beans in some fields and being spot sprayed. Hay has been hard to make for the past month.—Jim Lewis, Caroline Co.

Lower Shore

It was a good year for wheat, with higher than average yields. Corn was hurt a bit by early dry weather, but has really turned around in the last three weeks after several rains. Most corn is currently in reproductive stages. Late corn will probably yield better than early planted corn. Most soybean is still in vegetative growth stage. Full season soybean was hurt a little due to dry weather, and are a little shorter than normal, but doing pretty well. Double-crop soybean is looking good. Cover crop sign-up acreage for the 2023-24 season has increased from last year.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

We have continued to receive rain just in the nick of time during the last month. As is normally the case this time of year, there are areas with too much rain and others with too little, but overall, growing conditions have been favorable. Corn is mostly all pollinated and in the grain fill stage. Full season beans are also in good condition. We had adequate moisture during the week of hot weather which limited the adverse effect on crop condition. Double crop beans were late being planted following a late wheat harvest and most fields have not yet canopied. In both corn and soybean, Palmer amaranth, Waterhemp and common ragweed are making their normal debut above the crop canopy. Vegetable crops are coming off now with a consolidated harvest season due to the cooler May and hot temperatures as of late squeezing harvest the window.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.

*Regions (counties):
Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s

When Does Corn Rally in August?

Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate | mtownsen@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Frederick County

All eyes have been on news headlines coming from the Black Sea for the last two to three weeks since the termination of the previous agreement between Russia and Ukraine. The escalation in the war between these two nations has seen drone strikes, missile engagements, and major destruction of Black Sea ports like Odessa in Ukraine. Traders have watched these headlines and acted accordingly in the market place as the price of corn and wheat retraced previous months losses.

However, a bull market needs a continuous stream of bullish news to continue the price momentum. Traders have since lost some interest in these headlines as there appeared to be a break in the action in the middle of last week. No less, the slow in headlines corresponded with a wetter weather outlook for many areas of the Midwest. The December corn market has fallen back to the low $5.00 mark; a price level seen in Mid-July following the rather bearish USDA planted acreage report.

With much of the US corn crop “made”, the trade may be moving beyond the volatile weather market observed these last two months. However the future is not so rosy either; August is typically a rather turbid month for the December Corn contract with traders seeking headlines of yield prospects, South American harvest updates, and South American planting intentions. With this, the goal of this excerpt is to help answer the question, “when does the corn market rally in August?”

Figure 1. Illustrating the general historical pattern of the December Corn contract. Credit: Moore Research Center, Inc.

As circled in blue, August tends to be rather choppy with rapid price movements throughout the month. Additionally, one can also observe a slight downward trend during this time period.

In evaluating December Corn historical price data, 10 of the last 15 years saw a decline in the corn price from the beginning of the month to the end of the month. On average, these years saw an average decline of $0.18 during this period, as well as a daily price change of about -$0.005/day.

Of the five years when corn did rise in August, three of which appear to be induced by the same phenomenon. The years 2011, 2013, and 2022 saw an August WASDE report indicating a lower corn yield than the July report of the same year. The August reports lowered the yield estimates by 5.7, 2.1, and 1.6 bu/ac respectively for 2010, 2013, and 2022.

The other year’s increase was the result of a catastrophic drought in Russia (2010) and a dramatic increase in export sales to China (2020).

With this being said, historically the USDA often changes the corn yield number in its August WASDE report. Last month’s report reduced the corn yield estimate by 4 bu/ac–an infrequent occurrence for the USDA to revise downward in July. In this, there may exist reason to believe that the August 2023 WASDE corn yield estimate will revise downward once more.

So to answer the question at hand, August rallies appear to come on the heels of pretty significant news: extreme crop failures, unprecedented demand, and lower than expected yields. Given our currently lackluster export demand and relatively high prices, a run on US corn appears rather unlikely. And though the Ukraine/Russia War appears to have disturbed the global supply chain for commodities, traders do not appear to trade these headlines for much longer. Currently, the US Corn crop ratings are the second worst observed since 2012 given the widespread drought across the corn belt. With this, pay close attention to the Aug 11, 2023 report as there could be a price movement with a potential yield revision.

2022 Maryland Weed Control Results

Kurt Vollmer, Weed Management Specialist | kvollmer@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension

Figure 1. Preplant applications of Liberty (left) and Gramoxone (middle) compared to the untreated check (right) 10 days after application at Wye REC. Images: Kurt Vollmer, Univ. of Maryland.

Results from the 2022 Maryland Weed Control Trials are now available. These trials evaluate crop injury (PHYGEN) and herbicide efficacy (CONTRO) for certain weed species. This data can be used to compare herbicide options crops including corn, soybean, and wheat. Each metric is based on a visual assessment on a 0 to 100% scale with 0 being no control/injury and 100 being complete control/plant death. Products with a control rating less than 55% offer poor to no weed control. Growers should use caution when selecting an herbicide program based on one year of data as environmental conditions and weed populations can vary across locations. A copy of this report can be accessed at  https://extension.umd.edu/sites/extension.umd.edu/files/2023-07/2022%20Weed%20Control%20Results_FINAL.pdf or by using the QR code to the right, or by calling your local extension office for a copy. For more information on how to interpret this report, contact Dr. Kurt Vollmer (kvollmer@umd.edu).

Frederick County Grain Marketing Meeting

New Extension Program: Frederick County Grain Marketing Meeting The University of Maryland Extension Frederick County will now host a bi-weeky (every-other) meeting to discuss current topics in commodity grain markets for producers looking to improve their grain marketing strategy and stay informed about current market conditions. The meeting is intended to be an open, informal discussion rather than a lecture or presentation. In this, any and all members of the agricultural community/those interested in learning more about commodity grain markets are invited to attend.

Currently, meetings will be held at the Cracker Barrel in Frederick located just off Rt. 85 at 7408 Shockley Drive, Frederick, MD 21704 on Friday mornings from 7:30 am – 8:30 am. The meetings will be held over a delicious breakfast, however attendees will be responsible for purchasing their own meals. The next meeting will be held on Friday, Jul 28, 2023. Meeting location and times may be subject to change to better suit the needs of the attending group and will be announced.

For additional clarity, the current meeting schedule for the next five meetings is as follows:

  1. July 28, 2023
  2. August 11, 2023
  3. August 25, 2023
  4. September 8, 2023
  5. September 22, 2023

Attendees or interested parties are encouraged to complete the online form at the Frederick County Extension, Agriculture and Food Systems webpage or at https://go.umd.edu/FrederickGrain. Completion of the form is not required for attendance, however those who complete the form and provide an email address will receive additional information and timely updates of grain marketing topics, news, and market conditions between meetings.

Depending on group interest, expert speakers may be invited to attend and offer additional perspectives on marketing or market conditions at future meetings. For more information, comments, or questions please contact Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate, at mtownsen@umd.edu or (301) 600-3578. The UME-Frederick Ag&FS team looks forward to your attendance!

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This institution is an equal opportunity provider.

July 2023 Grain Market Update

Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland

Information from USDA WASDE report

Attached is the summary for the July 2023 WASDE.

Corn

This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for fractionally higher supplies and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 50 million bushels, as greater feed and residual use for 2022/23 more than offsets reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast up 55 million bushels as greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report is partially offset by a 4.0-bushel reduction in yield to 177.5 bushels per acre. According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, harvested-area-weighted June precipitation data for the major Corn Belt states represented an extreme downward deviation from average. However, timely rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures for some of the driest parts of the Corn Belt during early July is expected to moderate the impact of June weather. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be in the coming weeks. With supply rising fractionally and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.

Soybean

Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 210 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 4.0 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52.0 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2023/24 soybean supplies are reduced 185 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal domestic disappearance forecast. Soybean exports are reduced 125 million bushels to 1.85 billion on lower U.S. supplies and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 300 million bushels, down 50 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month.

Wheat

Changes this month to the 2023/24 U.S. wheat outlook increase supplies and domestic use, leave exports unchanged, and increase ending stocks. Supplies are raised on larger production, which is up 74 million bushels to 1,739 million, on higher harvested area and yields. The first 2023/24 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicates a decrease from last year. Conversely, winter wheat production is forecast higher on larger harvested area and higher yields. Gains for all wheat production are partly offset by smaller beginning stocks, which are lowered 18 million bushels to 580 million as indicated in the Grain Stocks report, issued June 30. The 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast at 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bushel, down $0.20 from last month.