Public Health Preparedness Modeling

The latest addition to our list of public health preparedness models is a mass casualty assessment model called EMCAPS, created by researchers at the PACER center at Johns Hopkins University. According to the developers, “it is intended to allow users to model disaster scenarios for drill planning and to use as an education resource. The EMCAPS Model allows you to estimate casualties arising from biological (Anthrax, Plague, Food Contamination), chemical (blister, nerve and toxic agents) radiological (dirty bomb) or explosive (IED) attacks. These scenarios are based on the Department of Homeland Security Planning Scenarios (April 2005).” The software also includes the CDC FluSurge Model.

To use it, download the 32 megabyte ZIP file from the project web site. (There is no cost or login required.) It takes about five minutes to download, unzip the files, and run the setup program. Running the program gives you the opportunity to select a scenario and enter important values. For instance, in the anthrax scenario, you need values for quantity of release agent, line of release distance, population density, and dissemination efficiency. Some guidance is available for understanding the variables and selecting values (for example, it includes the population density of major U.S. cities). After you click on “Compute,” the software then quickly generates a one-page report showing how many casualties to expect on each day of the scenario. You can then change the values and ask it to recalculate.