Pandemic influenza planning
The same group at the University of Tübingen has a new version of InfluSim, which can “predict the course of an influenza epidemic in a fully susceptible population.”
The new version is a 20MB zip file that I downloaded and then extracted to a folder on my computer’s desktop. I then ran the executable and started using the program. The model allows the user to change a wide variety of parameters about the population, the disease, and treatment policies. The outputs include the number of people infected, the number of days of work lost, the number of hospital beds required, and the costs.
The extensive help includes a warning that the program “should not be used to predict the exact course of the next influenza pandemic.” Instead, its goal is help users understand how assumptions about the virus and the interventions used affect the epidemic. Waiting a few seconds after changing a parameter yields new results (shown as numbers and as graphs). The quick (though not instantaneous) display of new results should be useful to those who want to gain that insight.