In Is Overtriage Associated With Increased Mortality? Insights From a Simulation Model of Mass Casualty Trauma Care, Nathaniel Hupert, Eric Hollingsworth, and Wei Xiong describe the results of using a simulation model to predict how overtriage affects the mortality of severely injured patients in the aftermath of a mass casualty incident. (Overtriage refers to classifying less-injured patients as severely injured. Too much overtriage could divert resources away from treating those who truly need urgent care.)
They conclude that the availability of resources to treat the severely injured affects the mortality rate more than overtriage:
Increasing overtriage may have positive, negative, or mixed effects on critical mortality in this trauma system simulation model. … We explore using the relative number of critical patients to available and staffed treatment units, or the critical surge to capability ratio, which exhibits a consistent and nonlinear association with critical mortality in this model.
The article was published in the journal Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness.