Simulating a Pandemic

The May-June 2011 issue of Interfaces has an article by Dionne M. Aleman, Theodorus G. Wibisono, and Brian Schwartz (all from Toronto, Ontario) that describes a agent based simulation model of an influenza pandemic in greater Toronto (which has a population of almost 5 million people).  The model is used to evaluate the impact of mitigation strategies on the number of people infected.  The model estimates the extent to which an outbreak is less severe as more infected persons stay home.

The citation is Dionne M. Aleman, Theodorus G. Wibisono, and Brian Schwartz, A Nonhomogeneous Agent-Based Simulation Approach to Modeling the Spread of Disease in a Pandemic Outbreak, INTERFACES 2011 41: 301-315.