Mitigating an Influenza Pandemic in Real Time

Faculty at the University of South Florida has developed a simulation-based tool to find the optimal way to mitigate the impact of an influenza pandemic across multiple regions. It considers multiple mitigation strategies, including vaccination, antivirals, voluntary quarantines, and social distancing. A key feature is that it can be used in real-time as a pandemic progresses. From the article:

(a) the model is capable of re-allocating resources remaining from the previous allocations and thus achieves a more efficient resource utilization; (b) the model incorporates the costs of the resources and aims to allocate a total available budget, as opposed to allocating available quantities of individual resources, which vary in their relative cost and effectiveness.

Snapshot of the decision-aid simulation GUI

Snapshot of the decision-aid simulation GUI

The complete citation is Andrés Uribe-Sánchez, Alex Savachkin, Alfredo Santana, Diana Prieto-Santa and Tapas K. Das, A predictive decision-aid methodology for dynamic mitigation of influenza pandemics, OR Spectrum, Volume 33, Number 3, 751-786, DOI: 10.1007/s00291-011-0249-0