Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland
Information from USDA WASDE report
Attached is the summary for the August 12 WASDE.
Corn
There was an adjustment of a minus 20 million bushel to the 2019/20120 crop estimate which carried forward to the beginning stocks of the 2020/2021 crop year. Yield estimates for the 2020/21 crop year were adjusted up from 178.5 bushels per acre estimated in July to 181.5 bushels per acre current estimate. These two changes resulted in an increase of 258 million bushel in estimated 2020/21 supply. On the demand side, feed & residual and export estimates were increased by a total of 149 million bushel. The resulting estimate of ending stocks was increased by 108 billion bushel increasing the Ending stocks to use ratio to 18.7% from 18.1% in July. These bearish numbers continue to suppress prices. Futures market prices have been in decline since the up tick in prices at the end of June/beginning of July so today’s WASDE report had little effect on prices and December corn settled at $3.27 per bushel.
Soybeans
There was a slight decrease of 5 million bushel to the 2019/20120 crop estimate ending stocks which carried forward to the beginning stocks of the 2020/2021 crop year. Yield estimates for the 2020/21 crop year were adjusted up from 49.8 bushels per acre estimated in July to 53.3 bushels per acre current estimate. These two changes resulted in an increase of 285 million bushel in estimated 2020/21 supply. On the demand side, the crushing estimate was adjusted up 20 million bushel, export estimate was adjusted up by 75 million bushel and residual was adjusted up by 5 million bushels. The resulting estimate of ending stocks was increased by 185 million bushels increasing the Ending stocks to use ratio to 13.7% from 9.8% in July. Just like corn, soybean futures market prices have been in decline since the up tick in prices at the end of June/beginning of July so today’s WASDE report had little effect on prices and November soybeans settled at $8.83 per bushel.
Wheat
There were minor adjustments in wheat supply and demand resulting in a 17 million bushel decrease in ending stocks estimate decreasing the Stocks-to-use ration from 45.6% in July to 44.3% in August. There was little movement in wheat prices and September 2020 SRW prices settled at $4.90.
