Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland Extension
Corn
Harvested acres estimate was adjusted down 1 million acres and yield estimate was adjusted down 0.1 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks estimate was adjusted down 258 million bushels. The total effect of these changes decreased supply 436 million bushels. Domestic demand estimate was decreased by 100 million bushels which accounted for the decrease in Use total. The net effect of supply and demand decreased ending stocks 336 million bushels and the stocks-to-use ratio from 17.1% to 14.9%. These anticipated changes have been reflected in the market as December futures price for corn has increased $0.75/bu. from $3.23/bu. on August 11 to a high of $3.98/bu. on October 9.
Soybeans
Harvested acres estimate for soybeans was adjusted down 700,000 acres and beginning stocks were adjusted down by 52 million bushel. These two changes resulted in a decrease of 97 million bushel in estimated 2020/21 supply. On the demand side, there was an increase in export estimate of 75 million bushels. The resulting estimate of ending stocks was decreased by 170 million bushels decreasing the stocks-to-use ratio to a very low 6.4% from 10.4% last month. The November futures price for soybeans has spiked almost $2.00/bu. in the past two months from $8.83/bu. on August 11 to a high of $10.80/bu. on October 9.
Harvested acres estimate for soybeans was adjusted down 700,000 acres and beginning stocks were adjusted down by 52 million bushel. These two changes resulted in a decrease of 97 million bushel in estimated 2020/21 supply. On the demand side, there was an increase in export estimate of 75 million bushels. The resulting estimate of ending stocks was decreased by 170 million bushels decreasing the stocks-to-use ratio to a very low 6.4% from 10.4% last month. The November futures price for soybeans has spiked almost $2.00/bu. in the past two months from $8.83/bu. on August 11 to a high of $10.80/bu. on October 9.
Wheat
Yield estimate was adjusted down 0.4 bushels per acre. Demand was increased by 10 million bushel. The net effect was to decrease ending stocks by 42 million bushel and the stocks-to-use ratio from 44.3% in September to 42.1% in October. wheat futures prices (December) have followed corn and soybean prices and increased $1.03/bu. from $5.04/bu. on August 11 to $6.07/bu. on October 9.
Yield estimate was adjusted down 0.4 bushels per acre. Demand was increased by 10 million bushel. The net effect was to decrease ending stocks by 42 million bushel and the stocks-to-use ratio from 44.3% in September to 42.1% in October. wheat futures prices (December) have followed corn and soybean prices and increased $1.03/bu. from $5.04/bu. on August 11 to $6.07/bu. on October 9.
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