Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland
Information from USDA WASDE report
Attached is the summary for the November 10 WASDE.
Corn
Yield estimate was adjusted down a significant 2.6 bushels per acre from 178.4 to 175.8. This decreased production calculation and total supply 215 million bushel. Domestic demand estimate was decreased by 75 million bushels but the export estimate was increased 325 million bushels for an increase in the total demand estimate of 250 million bushel. The net effect of supply and demand decreased ending stocks 465 million bushels and the stocks-to-use ratio from 14.9% to 11.5%. This is the lowest stock-to-use ratio since the 2013/14 marketing year. These changes have been reflected in the market as December futures price for corn has increased $1.00/bu. from $3.23/bu. on August 11 to a high of $4.23/bu. on November 10.
Soybeans
Yield estimate was adjusted down 1.2 bushels per acre from 51.9 to 50.7. This resulted in a decrease of 97 million bushel in estimated 2020/21 supply. On the demand side, minor adjustment in seed and residual resulted in an increase of 3 million bushels in the total demand estimate. The resulting estimate of ending stocks was decreased by 100 million bushels decreasing the stocks-to-use ratio to a very low 4.2% from 10.4% two months ago. This is the lowest stock-to-use ratio since the 2013/14 marketing year. The November futures price for soybeans has spiked $2.55/bu. in the past three months from $8.83/bu. on August 11 to a high of $11.38/bu. on November 10.
Wheat
There were no adjustments in the supply side estimates. The demand estimate was increased by 6 million bushel so the ending stock estimate was adjusted down 6 million bushels and the stocks-to-use ratio decreased from 42.1% in October to 41.7.1% in October. Wheat futures prices (December) increased from $5.94/bu. on October 9 to $6.09/bu. on November 10.
