Dale Johnson, Farm Business Management Specialist | dmj@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension
Corn
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for sharply higher supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and larger ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 35 million bushels lower based on a slightly higher use forecast for 2024/25. For 2024/25, larger corn exports are partly offset by reductions in corn used for ethanol and glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at a record 16.7 billion bushels, up 1.0 billion from last month with a 1.9-million acre increase in harvested area and higher yield. If realized, this total would be 1.4 billion bushels more than the prior record set in 2023/24. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at a record 188.8 bushels per acre, is 7.8 bushels higher than last month’s projection. Sorghum production is forecast up 24 million bushels to 391 million. The yield is forecast at 69.0 bushels per acre, slightly above last month’s projection while harvested area is up 0.4-million acres. Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast 545 million bushels higher to 16.0 billion. Feed and residual use is raised 250 million bushels to 6.1 billion based on a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected lower based on observed use during 2024/25. Corn used for ethanol for 2025/26 is raised 100 million bushels to 5.6 billion. Exports are raised 200 million bushels to a record 2.9 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and expectations of relatively low world market prices. With supply rising more than use, ending stocks are up 457 million bushels to 2.1 billion and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2018/19. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 30 cents $3.90 per bushel.
Soybeans
The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes lower beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are lowered 20 million bushels on an increase to crush and exports in the prior marketing year. Soybean production for 2025/26 is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million on a lower area partly offset by a higher yield. Harvested area is forecast at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 53.6 bushels per acre is up 1.1 bushels from last month. With lower supply and the slow pace of export sales to date, exports are reduced 40 million bushels. Crush is unchanged at 2.54 billion bushels. U.S. ending stocks are forecast at 290 million bushels, down 20 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2025/26 is forecast unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. The soybean meal price is forecast at $280 per short ton, down 10 dollars. The soybean oil price forecast is unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
Wheat
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat is for slightly tighter supplies, reduced domestic use, higher exports, and smaller ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower production, down 2 million bushels to 1,927 million on smaller harvested area only partly offset by a higher yield. The all wheat yield is raised 0.1 bushels per acre to 52.7. Production forecasts are decreased for Hard Red Spring and White, but increased for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter. Domestic use is lowered 5 million bushels on reduced food use, based primarily on the latest NASS Flour Millings Products report. Exports are raised 25 million bushels to 875 million on the continued strong early pace of sales and shipments, particularly for Hard Red Winter. Projected ending stocks are reduced by 21 million bushels to 869 million. The 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.10 per bushel to $5.30 on a lower projected U.S. corn price and price expectation for wheat the remainder of the marketing year.
