Dale Johnson, Farm Business Management Specialist | dmj@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension
Corn
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for greater supplies, larger exports, and a slight reduction in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2025/26 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2024/25, with reductions in imports and corn used for ethanol partially offset by an increase in exports. Corn production for 2025/26 is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, up 72 million from last month as a 2.1-bushel reduction in yield to 186.7 bushels per acre is more than offset by a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested area to 90.0 million acres. If realized, harvested area would be the highest since 1933 and planted area of 98.7 million acres the highest since 1936. Total U.S. corn use for 2025/26 is forecast up 100 million bushels to 16.1 billion. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to a record 3.0 billion reflecting U.S. export competitiveness and robust early-season demand. With rising supply more than offset by greater use, ending stocks are down 7 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.90 per bushel.
Soybeans
The 2025/26 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production, higher crush, lower exports, and higher ending stocks compared to last month. Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, up slightly with higher harvested area offset by a lower yield. Harvested area is raised 0.2 million acres from the August forecast. The soybean yield of 53.5 bushels per acre is down marginally from last month. The crush forecast is raised 15 million bushels driven by stronger soybean meal exports. The soybean export forecast is reduced 20 million bushels on increased competition, particularly from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks are projected at 300 million bushels, up 10 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $10.00 per bushel, down $0.10 from last month.
Wheat
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 900 million on a continued strong pace of sales and shipments of Hard Red Winter wheat. Projected 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 25 million bushels to 844 million and are now slightly less than last year. The projected 2025/26 season-average farm price is reduced by $0.20 per bushel to $5.10 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
