Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland
Information from USDA WASDE report
Attached is the summary for the May 11 WASDE published on Tuesday. May is the first month for estimates of the new crop year (2020/21). To put these 2020/21 estimates into historical perspective, I have included the past 16 years in this summary spreadsheet.
Corn
Acres harvested, yield, and associated production are estimated to be at an all time high. Total use is estimated to be above the five year average. However, it is not the same magnitude as increased production so ending stocks are estimated to be an all time high of 3.3 billion bushel with an associated historically high stocks-to-use ratio of 22.4%. The next highest stocks-to-use ratio was the 2004/05 pre-ethanol year at 19.8%. This very bearish WASDE report did not move the futures market since it was anticipated and lower prices were already built into the market. December corn settled at $3.35 per bushel on report day.
Soybeans
Acres harvested, yield, and associated production are estimated to be at a five year average. Total use is estimated to be 250 million bushel above the five year average bringing ending stocks down to 405 million bushel, 80 million bushel below the five year average with a stocks-to-use ratio of 9.4% which is not bearish. However, worries about world soybean supply/demand, COVID-19, and the economy continue to suppress soybean prices and November soybeans settled at $8.55 on report day.
Wheat
Wheat production is estimated to be more than 100 million bushel below the five year average. Use is estimated to be slightly above the five year average bringing the ending stocks down to 909 million bushel, 154 million bushel below the five year average. The associated stocks-to-use ratio is estimated at 43.8%, lower than any of the past five years. However these improved numbers had little impact on futures prices and July/21 wheat settled at $5.36 per bushel on report day.
Download the report as a pdf file here: 2020 May WASDE summary
