Dale Johnson, Farm Business Management Specialist | dmj@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension
Corn
This month’s 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is for increases in supply, exports, and ending stocks. Total supply is 144 million bushels higher as larger beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the September 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 16.8 billion bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186.0 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 90.0 million acres. Total use is up 100 million bushels reflecting a higher export forecast. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion reflecting shipments to date. Inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.00 per bushel.
Soybeans
Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 48 million, on lower yields. The soybean yield is projected down 0.5 bushels to 53.0 bushels per acre. Soybean supplies are projected to be 61 million bushels lower than the September forecast, due to lower beginning stocks from the September 30 Grain Stocks report and reduced production. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.64 billion bushels, down 50 million from the previous forecast due to lower supplies and higher exports by Brazil and Argentina. In September, Argentina temporarily reduced export taxes leading to an influx of export registrations during the peak U.S. export season. Further, since the last report, the U.S. entered a trade deal with China, which led to higher U.S. prices and narrowed the price spread between U.S. and other major exporters. While U.S. soybean exports are expected to rise to China for the rest of the marketing year, these higher shipments could be offset by reductions to other markets where the United States no longer holds a large price discount compared to other exporters. U.S. soybean crush is unchanged and ending stocks are forecast down marginally. The U.S. season average soybean price for 2025/26 is raised $0.50 to $10.50 per bushel.
Wheat
The outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies and higher ending stocks, with no change to use. Supplies are raised on greater production, up 58 million bushels to 1,985 million, on a record all wheat yield based on the September 30 Small Grains Summary. The season-average farm price is lowered $0.10 per bushel to $5.00 as larger global supplies reduce price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year.
