Reports are for crop conditions up to July 5, 2024.
Western Maryland
Dry, dry, dry. The pleasant spring has turned into a dry summer so far. Even when the heat isn’t oppressive, the sun is bright, and the wind blows all wonderful conditions for drying out things. Corn and full-season bean planting is a memory. Wheat harvest is in full swing, and yields and test weights are good. Two cuttings of alfalfa are off, and we are hoping for enough moisture to make a third cutting. Double-crop beans are going in the ground, further proving that farmers are the most optimistic people on the planet. Until next month, keep looking up. One day, those clouds will have rain in them, and we will need it.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.
Central Maryland
The wet spring resulted in lots of slugs and replanted soybeans. However, in the last few weeks, the rain has disappeared here in Montgomery County. Temperatures have soared into the upper 90s, resulting in some very dry topsoil, subsoil which is quickly losing moisture, and drought-stressed crops. Some corn fields are starting to tassel, and soybeans are beginning to flower.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.
Northern Maryland
June was unusually dry and we are in a drought situation. Wheat and barley harvest and straw baling was a breeze to the dry weather, and harvest came about 1-2 weeks earlier than normal due to the dry, windy June. Yields were not near the record-setting numbers we’ve seen the past two years but they were still respectable. Having small grains off early will greatly benefit double-crop soybeans, assuming there’s enough moisture in the ground to germinate them. Earliest planted corn is in tassel by July 4 and we thankfully got a couple of decent storms just as tassels were pushing through and alleviated drought scenarios in many fields; that rain likely saved several bushels. Full season soybeans are also starting to come along nicely now after a slow start that some moisture is back in the soil.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.
Upper and Mid Shore
Center pivots have been working double time, keeping corn and soybean fields in the region irrigated amid the ongoing dry spell. Significant rain events are a distant memory, and the summer solstice has brought record heat, contributing to visible water stress symptoms on non-irrigated fields. All corn acres are planted, and early-planted corn is currently tasseling. Small grain harvest is progressing well, aided by the dry weather, which has extended the harvest window. As the small grain harvest wraps up, double-crop beans will soon be planted. Meanwhile, sprayers are busy applying post-emergence herbicides to fields to manage pre-emergence weed escapes, most likely due to the absence of an activating rain. Hopefully we get some rainfall soon.—Dwayne Joseph, Kent Co.
Lower Shore
We had a very dry couple of weeks. Crops were showing signs of drought stress with stunting and leaf burning in some fields. This was followed by a 2-4” rain event across much of the Lower Shore. Corn is approaching late vegetative stages, but not yet tasseling. Wheat has been harvested and double crop soybean planted.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.
Nicole Fiorellino, Assistant Professor & Extension Agronomist | nfiorell@umd.edu University of Maryland, College Park
With the recent dry weather, some corn sidedress applications have been delayed past the optimum application window, causing farmers to think about the necessity of a “late” sidedress application. Let’s discuss corn growth stages and nitrogen (N) utilization in the plant and summarize research findings of yield response to “late” sidedress applications. This information can be useful for farmers to decide how to make decisions based on profitability, which sometimes may mean foregoing a late application which may result in decreased yields.
What is the “short stave”?
I often quote Liebig’s Law of Minimum and the visual analogy of a barrel made of wooden staves to represent agronomic management decisions, specifically fertility decisions. The first step to correcting a growth problem, be it fertility or otherwise, is identifying the problem that must be corrected – determining the “short stave” of the barrel limiting its capacity. While the gut reaction to stunted corn that missed a sidedress application may be a N deficiency, the “short stave” could be dry soils. I have seen corn that visually improved this week just due to precipitation. If you have heavier soils, good organic matter, maybe used manure, your corn may improve as the soil is rewetted and some N in the soil makes its way to the plant, eliminating the need for a trip across the field. Further, a rushed N application without precipitation in the forecast is not useful, as the N will not reach the plant roots with water as its vehicle.
Defining a “late” application
Each farmer may have a different definition of “late” sidedress application, so we should clarify this term and translate it to corn growth stages. Corn sidedress application is recommended between V4 and V6, to provide N to the corn as it enters a rapid uptake phase through the rest of the vegetative growth stage, as depicted in Figure 1. As the plant tassels and enters reproductive growth, the plant shifts from soil N uptake to translocation of N stored within plant tissues to the grain [1]. Thus, VT is the “turning point”, where a sidedress application between V6 and VT could be characterized as “late” but one might categorize any application after R1 as “the point of no return.” Confirming the growth stage of your corn is an important point to consider when weighing the possibility of a late sidedress application.
Figure 1. Nitrogen utilization of corn crop by plant tissue across the growing season. Source: Iowa State University Extension.
Risks of a late sidedress
Beyond missing the optimum window of utilization of applied N by the corn plant, there are other risks to consider when weighing a late application. Taller corn with more canopy coverage runs the risk of physical damage to the corn as application equipment moves through the field. There is the risk of leaf burn with foliar product applied, although the use of drop nozzles could help minimize this. Moreover, the delayed application of N may have stressed the corn in the early growth stages, already decreasing your corn’s yield potential. This means that even with perfect conditions and unlimited nutrients moving forward in the growing season, the yield “ceiling” has already been lowered. So, the cost of an additional N application will not be realized in profit (increased yield) and the most profitable decision may to forego applying more nitrogen. Finally, no farmer wants to risk making an N application when there is potential for loss to the atmosphere or to nearby surface water. Including potential off-site losses of applied N not utilized by the crop into the decision-making process may help make a late application decision more clear.
Yield impacts with late sidedress – pre-tassel
Yield benefits with sidedress through late vegetative growth compared to no application has been observed in other areas of the country; with researchers at Purdue University demonstrating sidedress at V15 and even up to R1 showed improved corn yield compared to no sidedress application, but still significantly less than corn sidedressed at V4 or V6 [2,3]. Research performed at Ohio State demonstrated an N application up to V10 minimized yield loss [4] and results from Cornell indicated significantly decreased corn yield with sidedress at V10 compared to sidedress at V4, V6, or V8 but significantly better than corn yield with no sidedress application [5]. In Minnesota, where the growing season is shorter, a sidedress application at V12 did not result in increased corn yield compared to no sidedress or sidedress prior to V8, with the researcher attributing this to compromised yield potential from early season N deficiency [6]. While these data are not local, they illustrate the potential for rescuing a corn crop from total loss with a sidedress application while the corn is still in the vegetative growth stage.
Yield impacts with late sidedress – post-tassel
Limited research findings exist to evaluate corn yield response to N application post-tassel [7]. There is a potential for rescue with a post-tassel sidedress application where severe N deficiency is observed, but this decision should be balanced with the potential return [6]. The lack of research findings of a post-tassel sidedress application should indicate this practice may not be recommended to optimize corn yield, farmer profitability, or environmental benefits.
Conclusions
Multiple factors should be considered when weighing a late sidedress application, first, determining the “short stave” and considering it could be drought, not N deficiency, and second, confirming the growth stage of the corn. While there are risks associated with late sidedress application, namely physical damage to corn with application equipment or increased potential for N loss off-site, data support sidedress application up to the end of vegetative growth can result in corn yield between optimum sidedress application and no sidedress application. There is no research to support yield benefits with sidedress applications post-tassel. Farmers should understand that early season N deficiency may have limited corn’s yield potential and consider this point when making profitable, late season sidedress decisions.
Reports are for crop conditions up to June 6, 2024.
Western Maryland
I have a good friend who says, “I don’t have forty years of experience farming; I have one year’s experience forty times.” This spring has been just like that. We have had more moisture than last year, but then came the hot days, cool weather, and more moisture. Corn is planted, and the first cutting of hay is in the barn. Soybean planting is winding down, and grain harvest will be here before you know it, starting with barley. With the moisture we will see how much disease took its toll. Fungicide applications weren’t always as timely as we would hope because of the frequent showers. Until next month when harvest is underway it is then the story will be told.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.
Central Maryland
Planting is almost complete. Slugs have been an issue; some soybean fields will need replanting. It was getting a bit dry, which did provide a good hay-making window. However, a thunderstorm is rolling in as I write this, giving us some needed moisture. Small grains are looking good. Summer annual weeds like pigweed, crabgrass, and foxtail are starting to take off with this warmer weather.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.
Northern Maryland
Spring has been a little challenging in our area. A dry spell in mid-late April made herbicide efficacy less than ideal, followed by several weeks of a lot of rain, which activated herbicides but prevented the timely termination of other cover crops. Early planted corn and beans are up and out of the ground, with earliest planted corn around V6 and getting it’s second shot of nitrogen. Rainy weather in late April early May delayed planting the remainder of the crop by about two weeks. These later planted fields are much further behind than usual but are looking good. There has been some slug damage present, it gets worse the further west you go in the region. Barley nearing harvest and wheat is starting to turn. There are symptoms of head scab but it remains to be seen how severe DON levels are in the grain. The wet weather has made it very difficult to make timely dry hay.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.
Upper and Mid Shore
Corn acreage is looking good, with a nice color and uniform growth. Depending on when it was planted, corn is in the V2 to V5 stages right now. Most of our full-season soybeans are already in the ground. As usual, rain across the region has been hit or miss, with some areas getting a lot more than others. These downpours might not be ideal, but they’re certainly better than no rain at all. Barley harvest is just around the corner. Summer annual weeds are popping up and are ready to impact yield potential. If your residual herbicide program hasn’t kept them in check, now’s the time for a POST application. And remember, using multiple modes of action in your tank-mix slows down the evolution of herbicide resistance in weeds.—Dwayne Joseph, Kent Co.
Lower Shore
has been planted and currently in emergence stage to around V4 stage. Corn is looking good, and being sprayed to combat early season weeds. Soybean planting is currently underway. In a few instances, early planted soybean (early April) had to be replanted due to slug damage. Wheat is looking good and drying down. Farmers are gearing up to cut wheat, which is earlier than anticipated.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.
Southern Maryland
As I write this, a very welcome rain is falling outside my window. As we move into the hotter days of June, the old adage that we are only a week away from a drought at any time is holding true. Two weeks ago it was too wet to get into fields and this week we have corn fields starting to show curling leaves and drought stress. In general corn is off to a good start with most sidedress N applications completed. There have been a lot of catch up full season beans planted in the last 2 weeks. Slug feeding has been minimal this year. Barley is drying down with harvest expected any day. Wheat will not be far behind. Ryegrass continues to be a challenge for producers in both burndown situations in corn and beans, as well as small grains. Many fields may need a harvest aid to kill the ryegrass and allow for timely harvest of wheat. Given the wet conditions following flowering, we are encouraging producers to get the wheat crop off as quick as possible to maintain grain quality.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.
Emily Zobel, Senior Agriculture Agent Associate | ezobel@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Dorchester County
Corn
Continue scouting for cutworms and stink bugs. The threshold for cutworms is 2-5% cut plants up to the V5 stage and with active larvae present. Stinkbugs will move into corn as surrounding small grains are harvested. When scouting for stinkbugs, pay close attention to the thorax of brown color stink bugs as the beneficial spined soldier bug is often mistaken for the invasive brown marmorated stink bug. The spined soldier bug has a prominent spine on each “shoulder.” NCSU’s suggested threshold is 13 stinkbugs per 100 plants for V1-V6, 10 stinkbugs per 100 plants for V14-VT, and 28 stinkbugs per 100 plants for R1-R2. The most critical time to treat if between V14 to VT is just before the primary ear is exposed to avoid banana ear. Stinkbugs will likely be around the primary ear at this point so that should be the target of the application.
Soybean
Early-season defoliator pests that are active right now include bean leaf beetles, green cloverworms, slugs, and grasshoppers. Soybeans can typically withstand a decent amount of defoliation before yield losses occur. If defoliation reaches 30%, and you are finding one grasshopper per sweep or 2-3 bean leaf beetles per plant treatment may be advisable.
Figure 1. Bean leaf beetle with feeding damage on a soybean leaf. Photo by Adam Sisson, Iowa State University, Bugwood.org.
Alfalfa
Begin scouting for potato leafhopper. Ten sets of 10-20 sweeps using a sweep net should be taken in random locations in the field. A detail threshold for alfalfa is based on the plant size and cost of the hay can be found online but a general guideline is 3” or less is 20 leafhoppers per 100 sweeps, 4-6” tall is 50 per 100 sweeps, 7-10” tall is 100 per 100 sweeps, and greater than 11” is 150 per 100 sweeps. If the field is more than 60 percent bud stage or if it has experienced “hopper burn,” the alfalfa should be cut instead of sprayed. Fresh-cut alfalfa should not be sprayed as leafhopper adults tend to move out of the field when it is being cut.
Figure 2. Potato leafhoppers in a sweep net. Photo by Bryan Jensen, University of Wisconsin, Bugwood.org.
Andrew Kness, Senior Agriculture Agent | akness@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Harford County
Tar spot is on the mind of many farmers as we enter the 2024 growing season and I have had many conversations with farmers and consultants about strategies for managing this disease. Here are some things to consider and keep in mind as we get into the peak of the corn growing season.
Tar spot is a disease of corn caused by the fungus Phyllachora maydis. This disease was first reported in limited amounts in Harford and Cecil County in 2022; in 2023 the disease spread to at least 8 counties in Maryland and by harvest ‘23, we found tar spot at a frequency of over 50% of fields scouted here in Harford County.
The tar spot disease cycle starts with old corn crop residue where the fungal spores lay dormant over winter. As conditions become optimal for its development in late spring/summer, spores are released and blown and/or splashed onto corn plants where the spore will germinate and infect the plant. Approximately 12-15 days after infection, symptoms will develop on the corn leaves and/or husks, which include dark, raised, lesions, which are the reproductive structures called stromata (Fig. 1). Inside the stromata are spores (Fig. 2), which are released and will infect new tissue. Tar spot is a polycyclic disease, meaning it has multiple generations or cycles per year. New infections will occur throughout the growing season for as long as green, living corn tissue is present and environmental conditions are favorable.
Figure 1. Tar spot stromata (raised black specks) on corn leaf.Figure 2. Microscope image of P. maydis ascus containing ascospores, which are blown and splashed to infect new corn tissue. Image: A. Kness, UMD.
Here in Maryland and the Mid-Atlantic, tar spot has not been reported to cause any significant epidemics or yield losses thus far, mostly because it becomes established late in the growing season; but that is not to say that serious epidemics couldn’t happen. In the Midwest, tar spot has been reported to cause upwards of 50 bushel per acre yield loss, and it was ranked the #1 yield-limiting disease for corn in the U.S. in 2021, 2022, and 2023.
Since tar spot was first confirmed in the United States in 2015, we have learned a lot about its epidemiology. Tar spot hails from the cooler mountain areas of Latin America. When tar spot first moved into the U.S., we had initially thought that mild temperatures and moisture were key variables in the development of the disease; however, recent research has found that moisture plays a role, but temperature is far more crucial. Webster et. al. (2023) found that monthly temperature average between 64-73°F were optimal for tar spot development and temperatures exceeding 73°F significantly reduced tar spot progression. What was more interesting is that they found that moisture both promoted and inhibited tar spot disease progression. Moisture early in the disease cycle aids in infection, but prolonged moisture (greater than 90% humidity) actually inhibits disease progression. Tar spot develops when relative humidity is less than 90% for a 2-3 week period, coupled with mild temperatures. This makes sense for many that may have observed tar spot in 2023, which was not a particularly wet year.
With this in mind, we should consider how these weather parameters influence our management of this disease here in Maryland where our summers tend to be hotter and more humid than many areas of the corn belt states.
If you look at the 5-year average monthly temperatures from regional weather stations (Table 1), you can see that the months of July and August for Mid-Atlantic regions are well outside of the 64-73°F window for optimum tar spot development. Compare that with data from Iowa for example, and they consistently run within or very close to the optimal temperature range. While only a few degrees may not seem like much, I believe our hot summers may actually keep tar spot at bay until later in August and September on an average year, which would be consistent with when we have found tar spot in Maryland in 2022 and ‘23. If these trends hold true, the majority of our corn crop is well into later grain fill stages by the time milder temperatures arrive, effectively avoiding tar spot development during the most crucial growth stages. In contrast, 30-day average temperatures are within or near the 64-73°F optimum range during corn’s most vulnerable growth stages in the corn belt.
Table 1. Average Monthly Temperatures (°F), 2019-2023
Westminster, MD
Salisbury, MD
Arlington, VA
Waterloo, IA
May
63.46
64.08
66.13
60.70
June
72.48
72.95
75.53
72.90
July
79.54
77.99
80.96
75.52
August
77.22
76.25
78.77
72.00
September
69.94
69.99
72.60
66.20
Where tar spot could become problematic here are instances where we have an unusually cool June and July which would put the majority of our corn at risk of tar spot infection during it’s most vulnerable time, which is tasseling through early to mid grain full.
Another situation where tar spot could be a problem is for late planted and late maturing hybrids that are in reproductive phases in August and September. Fields that are corn after corn are also in a higher risk situation.
For 2024, I would highly recommend scouting and paying close attention to the weather conditions just prior to tasseling through grain fill in your corn fields. There is an app that can help you determine your tar spot risk, called Tarspotter, and has been reported to be 90% accurate. The app takes into consideration regional weather data and field management to determine a risk percentage. It’s available for download for free on iPhone and Android.
If you decide to treat your corn with a fungicide to manage tar spot, VT/R1 timing is still found to be the most effective and economical. A fungicide application at this time will also effectively manage other common foliar fungal diseases of corn (which we shouldn’t forget about), such as grey leaf spot and northern corn leaf blight. Most fungicides labeled for tar spot are effective, however there is a better response to products that have 2 and 3-way modes of action.
This year we will continue to conduct research on tar spot in Maryland with funds from the Maryland Grain Producers Utilization Board. If you find tar spot this year, please report your findings to me via email (akness@umd.edu) or phone (410-638-3255) or on corn.ipmpipe.org.
Reports are for crop conditions up to May 3, 2024.
Western Maryland
April has brought us many showers. The triticale is all in the silos for the most part, and corn planting has begun. The wheat and the barley are looking good. Producers have a keen eye out for FHB, and thus, fungicide is on the docket. Pastures are looking good and first cutting alfalfa is not far off. Warmer temperatures are on the horizon.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.
Central Maryland
The wet, cool spring has turned into a hot, dry spring this week. Currently, the highest chance of rain (about 60%) is for this weekend. Planting is in full swing, and the first cutting of orchardgrass will start in a couple weeks. Wheat and barley are heading; if the drier weather keeps up, it will lower the risk for Fusarium.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.
Northern Maryland
Rain has been hard to come by with only about 1” of accumulated rain in the last 4 weeks. Corn and soybean planting has been in rolling for 2.5 weeks now, with a very large majority of it within the last week to 10 days or so. Small grains generally look very good, pastures and hay fields have also enjoyed the cooler than normal March and April. Wheat is anywhere from boot to head emergence. After a soggy start to April, we could use some rain.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.
Upper and Mid Shore
The rains from early in the month are now just a memory, with clear skies and no significant rainfall since. Dust clouds swirling on the horizon are a clear sign that #Plant2024 is underway. Farmers are terminating their cover crops and tilling the soil, readying it for planting. This year, we’re running a week or two ahead of last year’s schedule, raising hopes for another bumper crop. Small grains are currently heading, with some currently flowering.—Dwayne Joseph, Kent Co.
Lower Shore
After a rainy stretch, we’ve gotten some dry weather this past week. About half or more of cover crop acreage has been terminated. Some ground is being tilled, while the majority will be planted no-till. Corn is currently being planted. Wheat is looking very good. If wheat varieties are susceptible to Fusarium Head Blight and if the wheat is flowering, fungicides should be considered. The first cutting of hay has started.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.
Southern Maryland
Field conditions are a mixed bag. Areas to the north have turned dry in the last week. Areas to the south received more rain delaying field operations. In drier areas, soil has become hard and compacted, aggravated by wet conditions over the winter. This is a year where big differences in soil conditions can be observed between no-till and tilled fields. Planters have been rolling for the last two weeks with conditions mostly ideal for planting. Corn emergence looks good so far. Slugs were a concern early, but drier weather has helped with that issue. We have many acres of early planted soybeans again this year. Burndown programs have been challenged this year with many escapes of annual ryegrass. Wheat is headed and beginning to flower now. We are observing some yellowing of the flag leaf and leaf below the flag leaf across many fields that showed up in the last 10 days. We are working to determine the exact cause, but believe it related to environmental conditions with perhaps some virus issues like BYDV as well. A lot of good dry hay has been made in the last two weeks. On the fruit and vegetable front, plasticulture strawberries look very good and are ripening now. All of our main season vegetable crops are preparing to go in the ground this week. High tunnel crops are coming off now.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.
Nicole Fiorellino, Extension Agronomist | nfiorell@umd.edu University of Maryland, College Park
Have you thought about how you might incorporate newly-available biological products into your operation? Maybe you are interested, but skeptical about the return on investment? I will briefly define “biologicals” then provide my thoughts on how to navigate the old adage, “to use or not to use.” I operationally define biological products as commercially-available amendments that are adding a living organism to your growing system, either to the soil or directly to the plant. Generally, these products are meant to replace a fertilizer application by unlocking nutrients stored in the soil or amplifying natural processes that harness nutrients, namely nitrogen (N), from the atmosphere. While a variety of products from different brands can be broadly categorized as biologicals, it is important to take the time to understand the specific “mode of action” of individual biological products and compare that to your field conditions as a first step towards deciding if you will use a product.
Most biological N products aim to increase the mineralization of organic N stored in your soil to inorganic forms that are plant available. The mineralization step of the N cycle is mediated by microorganisms that spend energy to digest organic N and transform it to inorganic, plant-available N. When there is ample inorganic N present in the soil, like after a fertilizer application, for example, the microorganisms are “signaled” that ample N is present and they conserve energy by slowing down, or even stopping, mineralizing organic N. So biological products aim to “block” the signal to microorganisms that instructs them to cut off mineralization and they signal microorganisms to increase the organic N that is mineralized; hence adding more N to the soil with additional fertilizer application.
The increased availability of the soil storage of organic N or the provision of N to plants without fertilizer is accomplished through the introduction of novel N-fixing bacteria that allow a cereal crop, like corn, to fix N like a legume; by providing a stimulant to native soil bacteria to kick-start mineralization; or by infecting the corn plant with an N-fixing bacteria that fixes N from the atmosphere with no additional available N present in the soil – each of these examples represents the mode of action of a different biological product. While it seems like these products have the potential to supply nearly unlimited amounts of N to your crops, they should be viewed as fertilizer replacements, not necessarily as bonus N on top of your current fertility plan. Moreover, despite some marketing claims that yield benefits would be observed across all acres of a farm, a farmer might be more likely to observe a yield response where fertility is low, maybe on marginal acres where fertilizer applications or field operations are delayed due to logistics and timing. Finally, beyond the cost per acre of the product itself, you may want to consider the ease of use of the product and the cost in time associated with product use, including restrictions on tank mixing, application timing, and extra trips across the field.
Once your head is spinning from those considerations and you think you may want to try a new product, your next step may be to see out local research data on a product’s efficacy or maybe even check with your neighbor to learn about their experience with the product. The specific nature of the individual biological products and their interaction with soil nutrient concentration means that University data or even data from your neighbor may not represent the results you might expect on your farm. Unlike the universally-expected yield response with increased fertilizer application across the spectrum of soil and environmental conditions, the potential yield response to the use of biological products varies greatly with location, soil type, and weather conditions – meaning in the same location across multiple years, there may be a different response to the use of these products.
We recommend performing trials on your farm to aid your decision to use biological products. A first step to determine a yield response will be to understand how efficiently you are using N fertilizer on your field. This can be accomplished with a simple field-length strip plot protocol using multiple N fertilizer rates and up to two biological products of your choice. The Agronomy Program at University of Maryland has launched an On-Farm Trials program, with funding support from the Maryland Grain Producers Utilization Board. We encourage farmers to sign up to participate in the trials, one protocol is a biological product comparison. As we enter our second field season in 2024, more information for how to sign up for the trials and brief results summary from 2023 can be found at https://bit.ly/UMDOnFarmTrials or you can email Dr. Nicole Fiorellino at nfiorell@umd.edu or Mr. Gene Hahn at ghahn@umd.edu for more information. We offer a payment to offset potential yield loss and to compensate you for your time spent working with our team to execute the trials. If you have not planted corn yet, there is still time to sign up! Check back to the November research summary issue of Agronomy News for 2024 Field Trials results.
Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate | mtownsen@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension, Frederick County
Grain markets have slid significantly from the highs posted last summer that followed the perceived drought in the Midwest.
Image Credit: Barchart: December ‘24 Corn Contract from June 2023 to April 3, 2024.
Unfortunately, these drought concerns were generally unfounded as key growing areas received timely rains to keep yields from suffering in the corn belt. In fact, the U.S. set a new corn production record at 15.234 billion bushels topping the previous record set in 2016 at 15.148 billion bushels. The trifecta of a record large U.S. crop, a large Brazilian corn crop, as well as underwhelming domestic and export demand sent prices spiraling lower from August 2023 to February 2024. The March ‘24 Corn contract traded at three-year lows on February 26th dipping below $4 following 11 consecutive week-over-week price declines.
Soybeans were unfortunately no better, falling $2.90 from their summer high ($14.18) to their low ($11.28) in the March ‘24 contract. Much of the same stories plagued this market including an unrealized weather rally and outstandingly large South American production that punished U.S. export demand.
To add insult to injury, “the Funds”—traders in the market who manage money for clients as either hedges or other investment strategies hit a record 340,732 net short position in the corn market on February 20th. Simply stated, these traders placed the largest-ever bet on corn prices continuing to decline, which has placed a metaphorical wet-blanket on any hopes of a rally.
Today
Grains have rallied from the end of February and throughout March. The inflection point was the last day of notice for March hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contracts. To that point, sellers (farmers, dealers, etc.) had the choice of pricing corn at current prices or “rolling” the contract to the May contract. The bleak outlook forced many hands and stimulated selling which pulled prices lower until the selling pressure was over.
Since then, both the corn and soybean markets have rallied off the lows and recovered to price levels previously seen in early February. The upward momentum has been driven by a phenomenon known as “short covering” that creates a positive feedback loop–the more it happens, the more it happens. As prices rise, “The Funds” in their net short position lose money as their bet has turned against them. To stop this, they must exit their position by buying a contract to offset the one they previously sold1. The buying stimulates further price increases that induce another fund manager having to offset their short position. At its extreme, this feedback loop can throw prices to astronomical levels2. In this case, the bump is a welcomed change but is unlikely to send us much higher for now.
More recently, the USDA released its Prospective Plantings Report compiled from surveys asking farmers their planting intentions this season. The report suggests growers will plant 90 million acres of corn and 86 million acres of soybeans, indicating that growers are shifting acres away from corn to soybeans. This was unsurprising, however traders found this as good news as the nearby contracts in both markets traded higher the day of the report. However, traders are generally wary of this recent report given the low farmer response rate and the tendency for acreage figures to climb with subsequent USDA planting reports.
Season Outlook:
The saying, “all models are wrong, but some are useful” may hold true for commodity market predictions as well; there is a significant degree of uncertainty in any market that can render any forecast absolutely incorrect. As such, this is not meant to be a forecast but more of an observation of trends and conditions that may prove useful.
Supply and Demand Fundamentals
Image Credit: Barchart. CFTC Commitment of Traders in the Corn Market (all contracts).
Every market most fundamentally relies on the interplay between supply and demand. Currently in the grains, supply has outstripped demand. Following last year’s record crop, U.S. corn supply is almost burdensome.
A common metric that evaluates how efficiently we use the crop we grow is the Ending Stocks-to-Use (S/U) ratio derived from the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) each month. Currently, the USDA projects the 2024/25 ending stocks (that which we will not use from the crop we’re about to plant) at 2.53 billion bushels and an S/U ratio of 17.2%–a level we have not seen since the 2006 when corn traded at an average price of $2.62/bu. This current 2023/24 marketing year (ending Sept. 1, 2024) is currently pegged at 14.9% S/U ratio–well higher than the 7-10% range of the last three years and the 12.6% historical average.
The soybean side of things is only marginally better and certainly not rosy by any stretch. The current S/U ratio projection for this year’s crop is 9.9% with the current marketing year sitting at 7.6%. Both these figures are a far cry from the burdensome supplies we accrued during the 2018-2019 trade war with China (22.9% S/U) yet they signal a surplus of soybeans.
Market Movers
With the current fundamentals dreary at best, it’s pleasant to think of those things that could actually help prices higher.
Midwestern drought conditions continue to worsen throughout the growing season. US weather conditions are a significant driver of price action in the growing season–as exemplified by last year. Currently, some of the Midwest is experiencing a moderate drought, with some agronomists questioning the subsoil moisture levels before planting. Importantly, drought conditions would have to persist throughout the growing season well past planting. Generally, drought is bearish to corn in April and May as Midwest growers can plant at a breakneck pace just in time for timely rains that pull yields higher and prices lower. As evidenced by last year, corn did not rally until late-May over weather concerns and in 2012, corn did not rally until mid-June. Both these years indicate that prices will likely stay mixed until real concern over crop condition emerges during the growing season.
The South American (Brazil + Argentina) soybean production is lower than expected, improving export demand for U.S. soybeans. Soybean harvest in Brazil is nearing completion, however final production estimates remain volatile. The same is true with South American corn production: a supply-side shock could support U.S. corn prices. Brazil has completed corn planting this last week of its large safrinha corn crop. Currently, much of the key corn growing regions are in a minor drought or have experiences greater than normal rainfall. More serious and persistent crop-damaging weather events could certainly be a boon to the U.S. market.
Recently, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will likely keep the Federal Funds rate higher for longer–increasing borrowing costs. If this holds true, investors may find themselves less attracted to debt and equity markets as companies may have a more difficult time generating earnings. Instead, investors may revert back to commodities–a market often seen as a hedge against inflation–as they did in 2022. As mentioned above, this may trigger a significant unwinding of short positions which could carry the market to higher prices. Unfortunately, this is likely the most unlikely scenario for increasing commodity prices as equities soar to all time highs in recent weeks.
So What Can We Do About It?
Marketing grain in 2024 will likely be challenging on all fronts. Put another way, given the current outlook, it is incredibly unlikely that selling grain in the fall at harvest prices will be a winning strategy. Similarly, it’s unlikely that an unhedged, unpriced JFM ‘25 sale will offer anything better as there are additional storage costs involved. That said, developing a preharvest marketing strategy may very well be a key to success this marketing season. Betting on the aforementioned weather stories is hardly a marketing plan.
Like every year the first step is knowing your cost of production inside and out. Marketing opportunities will present themselves, but it will take knowing what is and what is not a good price. With today’s relatively high input costs, “yielding your way out” of low prices is more challenging than previous years. Therefore it may be more crucial than ever to make judicious agronomic decisions.
Take advantage of seasonal market patterns. Generally speaking, we see 3-6% increase in corn and soybean prices between mid-March and late-May from their post-harvest lows in January. As old crop marketing wanes, and concerns over the current year’s crop emerges (like the weather), prices rise slowly during this time. It may be best to price some grain sooner rather than later to take advantage of this general trend. Put it more directly; from May 1st to October 1st, corn prices fall more than $0.30, 74% of the time. Would you bet on something weighted 75% against you?
Track local basis. Generally, basis tends to follow broader market conditions especially when it comes to spreads between nearby and more distant contracts. Seasonal trends in basis also exist with harvest often being the low point and spring generally higher.
Keep a watchful eye on the markets this season. It may be such that prices are favorable for a day or two before they fall back lower.
Please also consider attending a University of Maryland Extension grain marketing meeting. These meetings are filled with all the above strategies, general information, and more that could help you with your marketing decisions.
Best of luck to you all. Here’s to blue skies and high prices!
Reports are for crop conditions up to April 5, 2024.
Western Maryland
Wet, wet, wet. This spring is off to a very different start than last year. Late winter and early spring have gone a long way in replenishing soil moisture and groundwater. Soil temperature and moisture will delay planting for a few weeks, but we are happy to have the moisture. Chicken litter, dairy manure, and first-pass nitrogen have been applied. These rains are now filling pits uncharacteristically. We are seeing Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus in some triticale. This is new since triticale was once thought to be resistant to everything. Next fall, we will need to think about scouting for aphids. All in all we are off to a better start than 2023.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.
Central Maryland
We’ve had quite the up and down with the weather this month. A few days in mid-March brought highs into the 60s, but most of the month has been cooler (lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s). In the past week, areas around the region have received 2 or more inches of rain. Soil temperatures have hovered around 50 degrees F. Green-up and manure applications have gone out. Looking forward to some warmer weather next week!—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.
Northern Maryland
The past week has been cool and wet, which has been the story for most of the winter/early spring thus far. Field work has been very limited due to all the rain; second shot of nitrogen on wheat and weed control is needed as soon as the weather turns. Soil temperatures are still cool and the first seeds will not be going in the ground any time soon. Cover crops and small grains are generally variable across fields and winter annual weeds have been noticeably abundant this spring.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.
Upper and Mid Shore
No report.
Lower Shore
It’s been a wet spring, which has interrupted farm activities. Many fields are waterlogged or flooded. Farmers have been applying manure as they can get into fields. Most cover crops are still growing, which has been helpful to keep the rain water in the crop fields. No corn or soybean has been planted yet.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.
Southern Maryland
Rains continue to fall with only a few days here and there suitable for field work. Farmers are practicing patience as much work remains spreading litter/manure, applying herbicides and completing field operations. If weather conditions allow, planting will commence in a couple of weeks. Soils are wet and cold at present. Small grain crops are at jointing stage. Most wheat acreage received a first application of N with the second application being made when field conditions allow. Aphids have been active in some fields. Alfalfa got off to an early start this year, and growers are encouraged to scout for alfalfa weevil which has also been active. In So MD, most populations are resistant to pyrethroids, leaving Steward as the best option. Cool season grass hayfields are greening up now. On the weed front, Virginia Pepperweed seems to be more prevalent this year. Marestail and Common Ragweed are around and need to be controlled prior to planting. Burndown applications are being made in preparation for planting. With cooler temperatures, we may struggle to kill larger Italian ryegrass, brassicas, and cereal grain with standard rates of glyphosate.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.
Reports are for crop conditions up to July 5, 2024.
