Category: Wheat

March 2023 Grain Market Update

Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland

Information from USDA WASDE report

Attached is the summary for the March 2023 WASDE.

Corn

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exports are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.60 per bushel based on reported prices to date. Ending stocks-to-use ratio increased from 9.1% in February to 9.7% in March.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher exports, lower crush, and reduced ending stocks compared with last month’s report. Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to 2.02 billion based on higher-than-expected shipments through February. Soybean crush is reduced on a small reduction in domestic soybean meal disappearance combined with a higher extraction rate. With higher exports more than offsetting lower crush, ending stocks are reduced 15 million bushels to 210 million. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest in seven years. With relatively strong domestic demand for soybean oil limiting export competitiveness, U.S. soybean oil exports are reduced 200 million pounds to a historically low 500 million. Higher domestic use and reduced production are offsetting, leaving soybean oil stocks unchanged this month. Ending stocks-to-use ratio decreased from 5.2% to 4.8%, the lowest since the 2012/13 marketing year.

Wheat

The 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price remains $9.00 per bushel.

MD Grain Marketing Site Updated for 2023: Field Crop Budgets and Custom Rates

Shannon Dill, Principal Agriculture Agent
University of Maryland Extension, Talbot County

The University of Maryland Extension has updated the grain marketing website (www.go.umd.edu/grainmarketing) with new input data and spray programs for the 2023 field crop budgets. Also posted is the recent 2023 Maryland and Delaware Custom Rate Survey.

Crop Budgets

Cost of production is essential when making decisions about your farm enterprise and grain marketing. Enterprise budgets provide valuable information regarding individual enterprises on the farm. An enterprise budget uses farm revenue, variable cost, fixed cost, and net income to provide a clear picture of the financial health of each farm enterprise. This tool enables farm managers to make decisions regarding enterprises and plan for the coming production year.

The 2023 Maryland enterprise budgets were developed using average yields and estimated input costs based on producer and farm supplier data. The figures presented are averages and vary significantly from one farm and region to the other. It is, therefore, crucial to input actual farm data when completing enterprise budgets for your farm.

 

Cost Per Acre 2023          
  Corn – No Till Corn – Conventional Soybeans Wheat Wheat/Beans
2022 $689.00 $749.00 $402.00 $490.00 $749.00
2023 $735.50 $799.57 $422.86 $537.64 $800.23
Difference $46.50 $50.57 $20.86 $47.64 $51.23
Percent Change 7% 7% 5% 10% 7%

How to Use University Enterprise Budgets: 

The enterprise budgets can be used as a baseline for your operation.  Make changes to these budgets to include your production techniques, inputs, and overall management. 

 Use this document as a start or reference to creating your crop budgets.  The budgets are available electronically in PDF or Excel online at www.extension.umd.edu/grainmarketing. Contact information is on the website if you have problems downloading any of these budgets.

2023 Custom Rate Survey Now Available for Maryland and Delaware

Financial and economic considerations such as limited capital, untimely cash flow, low labor, small acreage, or other reasons require farmers to hire custom services for field operations.

Custom work charges are determined by demand and supply and are negotiated between farmers and custom operators. The purpose of the publication is to provide information on custom work charges in Maryland and Delaware. 

Custom Work Charges

A mail survey was conducted in the fall of 2022 to determine custom works charges in Maryland and Delaware. Rates were collected from 67 custom operators and farmers and summarized for the state. Participants indicated the rates they charge for various field operations. The charges reported in this publication may serve as a guide in determining an acceptable rate for a particular job where little other information is available. The charges can also be compared with costs and returns and may be used as a basis for working out more equitable charges for both the custom operator and the customer.  These are available online at www.go.umd.edu/grainmarketing or contact your local Extension Office. 

Operation AVERAGE ’23 AVERAGE ’21 Percent Change
Field Preparation $20.21  $19.07  6%
Planting $21.87  $18.31  19%
Field Applications $14.09  $9.84  43%
Forage Production $15.17  $12.32  23%
Harvesting $73.07  $71.30  2%
Labor $42.19  $40.38  4%
Equipment Expenses $85.50  $71.23  20%
Average Total Change $38.87  $34.64  12%

*The accuracy of this survey depends on the number of realistic responses. If you would like to be added to the custom applicator list for future surveys, send your name and email/mailing address to sdill@umd.edu c/o MD Custom Rates.

 

2023-2024 Agronomy Guide Avalable

The 2023-2024 version of the Penn State Agronomy Guide is available at https://extension.psu.edu/agronomy-guide. This is available as a digital download for $15, printed copy for $35, or a print and digital bundle for $45. They are offering a 25% discount through March 25. Enter the code CROPS-8GS in the “apply a discount code” section at checkout.

October 2022 Grain Market Report

Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland

Information from USDA WASDE report
Attached is the summary for the October 2022 WASDE.

 

Corn

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, greater feed and residual use, lower exports and corn used for ethanol, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks are partially offset by higher imports. Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Projected feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2021/22. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2022/23 are cut 47 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $6.80 per bushel. 

Soybeans

Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.6 million acres. The soybean yield is projected at 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the September forecast. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks,
supplies are reduced 31 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, down 35 cents.

Wheat

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower 2022/23 production based on the NASS Small Grains Summary that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield. This lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million, leaving production only minimally higher than last year. Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports, raised 10 million bushels to 120 million, all for Hard Red Spring. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 50 million, based on first quarter disappearance, as indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. This is the lowest first quarter total disappearance since 1983/84. Wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million on reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971/72. Projected ending stocks are lowered 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007/08. The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $9.20 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.

2022 Mid-Atlantic Crop Management School

Registration is now open for the Mid-Atlantic Crop Management School, which will be held in-person at the Princess Royale in Ocean City, MD from November 15 – 17, 2022. The school offers a 2 ½ day format with a variety of breakout sessions. Emphasis is placed on new and advanced information with group discussion and interaction encouraged. Individuals needing training in soil and water, nutrient management, crop management, and pest management can create their own schedule by choosing from 5 program options offered each hour.

New this year for CCAs: we are offering  specialty CCA certification credits in sustainability and precision agriculture. Specialty credits count toward recertification for the associated specialty certification or can be applied toward your overall CCA recertification credit requirements (for individuals not holding a specialty certification). We also anticipate offering state nutrient management credits for DE, MD, PA, VA, and WV and state pesticide credits for DE, MD, NJ, PA, VA, and WV.

Online registration will close at 11:59 p.m. EST on Monday, November 7, 2022. Registration Fees are $325 by October 15, and $375 from October 16 through November 7. We look forward to seeing you there.

Registration and program details are online at: https://go.umd.edu/crop22registration.

September 2022 Grain Market Summary

Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland

Information from USDA WASDE report
Attached is the summary for the September 2022 WASDE.

 

Corn

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, smaller feed and residual use, reduced exports and corn used for ethanol, and tighter ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 5 million bushels lower based on essentially offsetting export and corn used for ethanol changes for 2021/22. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 13.9 billion bushels, down 415 million from last month on reductions to harvested area and yield. The national average yield is forecast at 172.5 bushels per acre, down 2.9 bushels. Harvested area for grain is forecast at 80.8 million acres, down 1.0 million. Total U.S. corn use is cut 250 million bushels to 14.3 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 100 million bushels based on a smaller crop and higher expected prices. Exports are cut 100 million bushels to 2.3 billion while corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million to 5.3 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are down 169 million bushels to 1.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $6.75 per bushel.

Soybeans

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks and lower production, crush, exports, and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower export forecast for 2021/22. Soybean production is projected at 4.4 billion bushels, down 152 million with lower harvested area and yield. Harvested area is down 0.6 million from the August forecast. The soybean yield forecast of 50.5 bushels per acre is down 1.4 bushels from last month. The crush forecast is reduced 20 million bushels and the soybean export forecast is reduced 70 million bushels on lower supplies. Ending stocks are projected at 200 million bushels, down 45 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $14.35 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Soybean meal and oil prices are also unchanged at $390 per short ton and 69.0 cents per pound, respectively. Other changes this month include lower peanut and higher cottonseed production.

Wheat

The 2022/23 U.S. wheat outlook for supply and use is unchanged this month. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $9.00 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for cash and futures prices the remainder of 2022/23. Despite the decline, $9.00 per bushel would remain a record SAFP.

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: August 2022

Reports are for crop conditions up to September 2, 2022.

Western Maryland

As the old saying goes you are only two weeks away from a drought. We have been 11 days without rain until August 30, when we received a welcome soaking. The high heat coupled with even more sporadic showers led us to the cusp of drought stress. Corn was curling and beans were cupping, the shower alleviated the situation and will help the double crop beans. On the upside, the dry weather has allowed for corn silage harvest to shift into high gear. Yields are very good leading us to hope corn grain yields will be as well. Cover crop planting will commence shortly with the winter annual forages behind corn silage being the first. Combines will hit the fields later in the month to start on the early corn followed by the early beans. Thus once in full swing harvest will last into late October or early November depending on precipitation. Pastures and hay fields are looking great for this time of rain thanks to the showers of late July and early August.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland

The last month has been pretty dry in our region. Corn is quickly drying down, and silage harvest has begun. Double crop beans are filling pods. Hopefully we get a bit more rain to help finish out the season. —Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.

Northern Maryland

End of July and first couple of weeks of August have been without much moisture. While most of our soils hold a decent amount of moisture, but I believe we’ve come up a little shy on water for corn and full season soybeans to have reached their full yield potential. Corn silage harvest started last week and it will not be very long before combines hit the fields. Some full season soybeans have started to turn, which is a bit earlier than usual, likely due to the lack of August rains. We did have a period two weeks ago of cooler, wet weather, which brought on the first occurrence of tar spot in corn to our county, which is now a hot topic of discussion.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper & Mid Shore

While half of the region has received adequate rains recently, the other half is in drought conditions. 99% of corn is made and harvest is beginning. Early maturity beans are starting to turn, but later maturity groups are suffering in the droughty areas. Troublesome weeds are popping up above bean canopy. A few areas have podworms and stink bug levels above thresholds.—Jim Lewis, Caroline Co.

Lower Eastern Shore

Weather has been extremely dry in most of the region. Farmers have been irrigating when possible; however, the majority of our rowcrop land is unirrigated. Corn is drying down. Soybean is on average in early reproductive stages. Cover crops are beginning to be aerially seeded via airplane. However, there are concerns of a poor cover crop stand due to the dry weather. Herbicide-resistant Palmer amaranth is apparent in many fields. Now is the time to walk the fields to pull mature Palmer plants. Herds of deer continue to be sited grazing in soybean fields.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

We have experienced a return to drier conditions in the majority of the region. Harvest of shorter maturity corn has started with reports of very good yields. Corn is drying down quickly with harvest expected to hit full swing in the next week or so. Soybeans have suffered over the last few weeks due to limited rainfall. We are finding podworms and podworm feeding injury in many double-crop soybeans throughout the area with many fields above threshold levels. If you have not already scouted fields for worm activity, I encourage you to do so soon.  We are also observing Palmer amaranth and common waterhemp becoming more evident in the drier conditions.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.

*Regions (counties):

Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arrundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s

August 2022 Grain Market Summary

Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland

Information from USDA WASDE report

Attached is the summary for the August 2022 WASDE.

Corn

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use, slightly higher food, seed, and industrial use, smaller exports, and lower ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2022/23 are 20 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2021/22, where a reduction in corn used for ethanol is partially offset by greater use for glucose and dextrose. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down 146 million from the July projection. The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.4 bushels per acre, is 1.6 bushels below last month’s projection. Among the major producing states, today’s Crop Production report indicates that yields are forecast above a year ago in Illinois, Minnesota, and South Dakota. Yields in Indiana, Missouri, Nebraska, and Ohio are forecast below a year ago. Iowa is unchanged. Total U.S. corn use for 2022/23 is reduced 45 million bushels to 14.5 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop. Corn used for glucose and dextrose is projected higher based on observed use during 2021/22. Exports for 2022/23 are cut 25 million bushels to 2.4 billion. With supply falling more than use, ending stocks are lowered 82 million bushels to 1.4 billion.

Soybean

U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2022/23 include higher beginning stocks, production, exports, and ending stocks. Beginning soybean stocks are raised on lower 2021/22 exports. Soybean production for 2022/23 is forecast at 4.53 billion bushels, up 26 million with higher yields more than offsetting lower harvested area. Harvested area is forecast at 87.2 million acres, down 0.3 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 51.9 bushels per acre is raised 0.4 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2022/23 are projected at 4.8 billion bushels, up 36 million from last month. U.S. soybean exports are raised 20 million bushels to 2.16 billion on increased supplies. Soybean ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, up 15 million.

Wheat

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, higher domestic use and exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production forecast at 1,783 million bushels, up 2 million from last month. Reductions in winter wheat and Durum are more than offset by an increase in Other Spring Wheat. The all wheat yield is 47.5 bushels per acre, up 0.2 bushels from last month. Food use is raised 6 million bushels to 970 million, based primarily on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, issued August 1. The report indicated record wheat flour millings in the April-June quarter, which resulted in raising 2021/22 food use to a record 972 million bushels. Wheat exports for 2022/23 are increased 25 million bushels to 825 million with most of the upward adjustment for Soft Red Winter and White, based on competitive export prices. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are lowered 29 million bushels to 610 million.

2022 Maryland Small Grain Variety Trials

Results from the University of Maryland Small Grain Variety Trials are in the tables below. To download a pdf copy of the report, click here.

University of Maryland also rates the relative susceptibility of select varieties of wheat and barley to Fusarium head blight. The results from this trial can be found here.

For questions regarding the small grain trials, contact Dr. Vijay Tiwari (vktiwari@umd.edu) or Dr. Nidhi Rawat (nidhirwt@umd.edu).

If you’d like to learn more about how to interpret variety trial data, view our fact sheet by clicking here.

Click to Download The 2022 Small Grain Variety Trials

Click to Download 2022 Wheat and Barley Disease Ratings

June 2022 Grain Market Summary

Dale Johnson, Farm Management Specialist
University of Maryland

Information from USDA WASDE report

Attached is the summary for the June 2022 WASDE.

Corn

This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for larger beginning stocks, slightly higher use, and increased ending stocks. Corn area and yield forecasts are unchanged. USDA will release its acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey based indications of planted and harvested area. Beginning stocks are up 45 million bushels mostly reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2021/22. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May. Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 5 million bushels as projected increases in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is partially offset by a decline in high fructose corn syrup. These FSI use changes are carried through for 2022/23. With no other 2022/23 use changes, ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $6.75 per bushel.

Soybeans

This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23 include lower beginning and ending stocks and higher prices. Lower beginning stocks reflects increased exports for 2021/22. Soybean exports for 2021/22 are raised 30 million bushels to 2.17 billion reflecting strong export sales and a reduced export forecast for Brazil. With reduced supplies for 2022/23 and no use changes, soybean ending stocks are projected at 280 million bushels, down 30 million. The soybean price is forecast at $14.70 per bushel, up 30 cents from last month.

Wheat

The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for increased supplies, unchanged domestic use and exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are raised on higher production with all wheat production projected at 1,737 million bushels, up 8 million from last month. NASS raised winter wheat production to 1,182 million bushels as increases for Soft Red Winter and White Winter more than offset a reduction for Hard Red Winter. The all wheat yield is 46.9 bushels per acre, up 0.3 bushels from last month. Projected 2022/23 ending stocks are raised 8 million bushels to 627 million, still down 4 percent from 2021/22. The projected 2022/23 season-average farm price is unchanged at $10.75 per bushel, compared to $7.70 for 2021/22.