Andrew Kness, Senior Agriculture Agent | akness@umd.edu and Nidhi Rawat, Small Grains Pathologist University of Maryland
Over the past couple of weeks we have gotten several questions about yellowing flag leaves on wheat. Generally these symptoms are appearing widespread in fields. To the best of our knowledge we can attribute this to leaf burn or leaf tip necrosis (LTN) (Figure 1). This disorder is often a response to cold injury or wind, but can also manifest as a result of heat and drought stress. We have had widespread hot and dry conditions for several weeks across Maryland, which can trigger these symptoms, especially on lighter soils. These symptoms can also be intensified by specific leaf rust and stripe rust resistance genes and LTN severity can vary greatly between varieties. In any case, there is nothing you can do to remedy the situation.
Figure 1. Wheat leaves with symptoms of leaf tip necrosis. Note the dead tissue at the leaf tips.
Leaf tip necrosis may be confused with barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV). BYDV is undoubtedly contributing to some of the symptoms in many of these fields, but it is probably not the sole factor causing these symptoms. LTN tends to cause death of the leaf tip resulting in necrotic brown tissue (Figure 1), whereas BYDV can cause a range of symptoms from yellowing of the leaf, which may or may not be accompanied with bronzing/purpling of the leaf tips (Figure 2). Notably with BYD, leaf tips do not die and become necrotic; whereas leaf tissue from LTN will become brown and dead starting at the leaf margins near the tip and work inward. Since BYDV is vectored by aphids, symptoms tend to be localized in hotspots in a field where aphids populations are high, whereas leaf burn and LTN more uniformly affect the entire field.
Figure 2. Symptoms of barley yellow dwarf virus. Leaf tips are yellow and purple/bronze but tissue is not dead.
Andrew Kness, Senior Agriculture Agent | akness@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension, Harford County
This article may come a little too late for some of you depending where you are in the state; but nevertheless, here is a review/reminder. As we get into May, wheat will begin flowering and we will have to consider fungicide applications to wheat to manage Fusarium head blight (FHB), also known as head scab. FHB is the most economically important disease of wheat, causing not only yield reductions, but more seriously, grain quality issues due to the production of the mycotoxin deoxynivalenol (DON), also called vomitoxin.
The pathogen that causes FHB, Fusarium graminearum, persists in wheat, small grain, and corn residue. It infects the wheat plant through the open flower, which is why flowering is such an important management timing for quality wheat production. Fusarium graminearum requires moist conditions and moderate temperatures (59-86 °F) to initiate infection. If these conditions are met during flowering, the pathogen will infect susceptible wheat varieties and cause disease.
Management of FHB requires a layered approach of IPM practices, with the major management practices being the selection of a good wheat variety and subsequent good planting and fertility practices, plus the use of a fungicide at flowering should the environmental conditions be conducive for FHB development. The wheatscab.psu.edu map can be helpful in predicting FHB risk to wheat around flowering. Historically, this model has been over 70% effective at predicting FHB outbreaks and should be consulted when making fungicide decisions. If you decide to apply a fungicide to manage FHB, there are three important factors to consider: 1.) Timing, 2.) Application method, and 3.) Active ingredient.
As mentioned earlier, the pathogen can only infect wheat through the open flower, so you need to time your fungicide application as close to flowering, or Feekes Growth Stage 10.5.1, as possible (Figure 1). This growth stage is defined by the appearance of yellow anthers in the center of the wheat spike on at least 50% of the plants. Once this stage is reached, the application window is about 5-7 days. Some fungicide products are labelled for application as early as Feekes 10.3 (half head emergence); however, this timing is not as optimal as 10.5.1—so wait if you can.
Figure 1. Wheat at Feekes 10.5.1, indicating proper fungicide timing for FHB management. Photo: A. Kness, Univ. of Maryland.
The second factor is application method. Most of our fungicides on wheat go on with a ground sprayer. For ground applications it is important to achieve good coverage of the wheat heads, not the foliage. To do this, spray volumes should be at least 15-20 gallons/acre and you should use bi-directional spray nozzles angled forward and backwards. This combination of spray volume and angled nozzles results in thorough coverage of the wheat heads. Aerial applications should be done at 5 gallons/acre for maximum coverage.
The final consideration is fungicide active ingredient. Triazole and HDMI fungicides work best on FHB. Products include: Prosaro Pro, Prosaro, Miravis Ace, Saphaerex, Proline, and Caramba; Folicur has less efficacy than the others and Tilt is no longer effective on FHB. An added benefit is that these products will also do a good job of keeping other fungal diseases at bay during grain fill. Do not apply any group 11 (Qoi/strobilurin) fungicides such as Aproach, Headline, or Quadris after heading as these products can actually increase DON levels in the grain.
Kelly Nichols, Agriculture Agent | kellyn@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension, Montgomery County
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that farming, fishing, and forestry workers had the highest fatal work injury rate in 2022, at 23.5 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers. The 2022 average rate for all workers was 3.7. During the business of spring, don’t forget to include safety measures on your farm. A little bit of time now could prevent an injury or save a life later.
Farm Worker Safety: We’ve already enjoyed 90 degree weather this week; stay hydrated, wear sunscreen, and take breaks as needed. Wear personal protective equipment that’s appropriate for the job, including ear protection. Repeated exposure to noises from farm equipment can lead to hearing loss over time.
Teach Youth About Farm Safety: Our youth are the next generation of farmers. Whether they are playing or working on the farm, teach them to be aware of the potentially dangerous places on the farm, such as manure pits and grain bins. Fully review how to operate equipment before putting them on it. Teach children how to handle animals and behave around them. Develop an emergency plan so that everyone knows what to do in case of an emergency. The National Children’s Center for Rural and Agricultural Health and Safety has many resources on farm safety.
Tractor Safety: Make sure your tractors are equipped with a rollover protective structure (ROPS); this will provide a safe environment for the driver in the event of a rollover. If pulling a side-mounted implement, keep it on the uphill side of the tractor. Do not allow extra riders on the tractor; they could easily fall off and be seriously injured. When getting off a tractor, do not jump. Clothing could become caught on the tractor, and incorrect landings can result in injury. Keep power take-off (PTO) shields in place. Put a slow moving vehicle emblem, lights, and reflector tape on all equipment for maximum visibility, especially if they will be driven on the road. Perform routine maintenance to ensure all equipment is working properly, including cleaning the windshields for clear visibility. Use turn signals or hand signals to indicate which way you are turning.
ATV Safety: While it is fun to drive all-terrain vehicles (ATVs) or other utility vehicles around the farm, they are not a toy. ATV incidents result from loss of control of the vehicle, rollovers, operators being thrown from the vehicle, colliding with a tree or other object, not protective equipment, and inexperienced operators. Slow down, drive carefully, and wear a helmet and sturdy shoes. Never carry a passenger; the extra weight will compromise the operator’s ability to steer and control the ATV. ATVs were not designed to be driven on hard surfaces; never ride them on public roads. Since ATVs are lower to the ground, use lights, reflectors, and flags to increase visibility around the farm.
Entering Confined Spaces: If and when it is absolutely necessary to enter confined spaces, shut off all moving equipment such as augers and fans before entering. Use the lock-out/tag-out system by placing a tag at the “on” switch for all equipment; this lets others know that the equipment is not to be turned on while maintenance is being performed. Wear a harness attached to a secured rope, as well as the proper dust mask or respirator. Have at least one person outside the confined space to assist if necessary. The person outside should have visual or verbal contact at all times.
Grain Bins: While standing outside the bin, use a long pole to break up crusted grain; this will reveal hidden pockets underneath the surface that could cause entrapment. When walking inside the bin, stay near the outer wall and keep walking if the grain should start to flow. Get to the ladder or safety rope as quickly as possible.
Silos: Run the blower for at least 30 to 45 minutes prior to entering the silo, and keep it running while in the silo; however, relying on the blower alone for ventilation is not enough. A self-contained breathing apparatus SCBA is strongly recommended, as there are no other breathing devices that can offer protection for the various silo gasses. Gas meters can be used to monitor gas levels.
Manure Storage: Test the levels of oxygen and hazardous gasses before entering. Gas meters can detect the odorless, colorless gasses (such as carbon dioxide), and provide the specific concentration of the gas. Ventilate the storage area prior to and during the entry. A portable gas monitor and source of oxygen should be carried with you so that rapidly changing conditions can be monitored.
Safety When Agitating Manure Pits: Gypsum has benefits as a bedding material, and is used as such on dairy farms. Under anaerobic conditions, like what can be found in manure pits (even under the crust of an open pit), gypsum can turn into hydrogen sulfide gas, which can be deadly to humans and animals. During agitation, the hydrogen sulfide can be released. Use gas monitors during agitation to monitor hydrogen sulfide levels. Keep children and pets away from the pit during agitation; hydrogen sulfide is heavier than air, and they will be the first to breathe it in. Not all farms that use gypsum have safety problems; however, this is something to be aware of.
Nicole Fiorellino, Extension Agronomist | nfiorell@umd.edu University of Maryland, College Park
Have you thought about how you might incorporate newly-available biological products into your operation? Maybe you are interested, but skeptical about the return on investment? I will briefly define “biologicals” then provide my thoughts on how to navigate the old adage, “to use or not to use.” I operationally define biological products as commercially-available amendments that are adding a living organism to your growing system, either to the soil or directly to the plant. Generally, these products are meant to replace a fertilizer application by unlocking nutrients stored in the soil or amplifying natural processes that harness nutrients, namely nitrogen (N), from the atmosphere. While a variety of products from different brands can be broadly categorized as biologicals, it is important to take the time to understand the specific “mode of action” of individual biological products and compare that to your field conditions as a first step towards deciding if you will use a product.
Most biological N products aim to increase the mineralization of organic N stored in your soil to inorganic forms that are plant available. The mineralization step of the N cycle is mediated by microorganisms that spend energy to digest organic N and transform it to inorganic, plant-available N. When there is ample inorganic N present in the soil, like after a fertilizer application, for example, the microorganisms are “signaled” that ample N is present and they conserve energy by slowing down, or even stopping, mineralizing organic N. So biological products aim to “block” the signal to microorganisms that instructs them to cut off mineralization and they signal microorganisms to increase the organic N that is mineralized; hence adding more N to the soil with additional fertilizer application.
The increased availability of the soil storage of organic N or the provision of N to plants without fertilizer is accomplished through the introduction of novel N-fixing bacteria that allow a cereal crop, like corn, to fix N like a legume; by providing a stimulant to native soil bacteria to kick-start mineralization; or by infecting the corn plant with an N-fixing bacteria that fixes N from the atmosphere with no additional available N present in the soil – each of these examples represents the mode of action of a different biological product. While it seems like these products have the potential to supply nearly unlimited amounts of N to your crops, they should be viewed as fertilizer replacements, not necessarily as bonus N on top of your current fertility plan. Moreover, despite some marketing claims that yield benefits would be observed across all acres of a farm, a farmer might be more likely to observe a yield response where fertility is low, maybe on marginal acres where fertilizer applications or field operations are delayed due to logistics and timing. Finally, beyond the cost per acre of the product itself, you may want to consider the ease of use of the product and the cost in time associated with product use, including restrictions on tank mixing, application timing, and extra trips across the field.
Once your head is spinning from those considerations and you think you may want to try a new product, your next step may be to see out local research data on a product’s efficacy or maybe even check with your neighbor to learn about their experience with the product. The specific nature of the individual biological products and their interaction with soil nutrient concentration means that University data or even data from your neighbor may not represent the results you might expect on your farm. Unlike the universally-expected yield response with increased fertilizer application across the spectrum of soil and environmental conditions, the potential yield response to the use of biological products varies greatly with location, soil type, and weather conditions – meaning in the same location across multiple years, there may be a different response to the use of these products.
We recommend performing trials on your farm to aid your decision to use biological products. A first step to determine a yield response will be to understand how efficiently you are using N fertilizer on your field. This can be accomplished with a simple field-length strip plot protocol using multiple N fertilizer rates and up to two biological products of your choice. The Agronomy Program at University of Maryland has launched an On-Farm Trials program, with funding support from the Maryland Grain Producers Utilization Board. We encourage farmers to sign up to participate in the trials, one protocol is a biological product comparison. As we enter our second field season in 2024, more information for how to sign up for the trials and brief results summary from 2023 can be found at https://bit.ly/UMDOnFarmTrials or you can email Dr. Nicole Fiorellino at nfiorell@umd.edu or Mr. Gene Hahn at ghahn@umd.edu for more information. We offer a payment to offset potential yield loss and to compensate you for your time spent working with our team to execute the trials. If you have not planted corn yet, there is still time to sign up! Check back to the November research summary issue of Agronomy News for 2024 Field Trials results.
Nidhi Rawat, Small Grains Pathologist University of Maryland, College Park
Wheat is currently flowering or will soon flower across the state of Maryland. Flowering is when yellow anthers emerge out of the wheat spikes. This is again that year, in which if you planted a resistant variety, you would be okay without spraying fungicides for controlling Fusarium head Blight (FHB risk map: top picture). However, if your planted variety is not FHB resistant, you should consider application of FHB fungicides (FHB risk map: lower picture). If you are planning to apply fungicides for FHB, remember that triazole-containing fungicides (Miravis-Ace, Prosaro, Prosaro-Pro, and Sphaerex) should be used for controlling FHB. They can control other fungal pathogens like powdery mildew, rusts, in addition to scab. Strobilurin-containing fungicides should not be used at this stage. These fungicides do not need to be tank mixed with another product for spraying. The fungicide products should be applied at the full rate recommended by the manufacturers. Aerial application at a rate of 5 gallons per acre or ground application at 15 gallons per acre with 300-350 um droplet size is recommended. Spray nozzles should be angled at 30°-45° down from horizontal, toward the grain heads, using forward- and backward-mounted nozzles or nozzles with a two directional spray, such as Twinjet nozzles.
Nidhi Rawat, Small Grains Pathologist University of Maryland, College Park
Wheat on the Eastern shore of Maryland is heading and should start flowering within a week or so. Wheat in the north-western part (Frederick, Carroll, Hartford counties) is also close to heading or has started heading. The FHB fungal pathogen infects the wheat plants at the flowering stage (when the yellow anthers emerge from the heads), which is the stage at which the application of fungicides is conducted in wheat. The FHB map currently does not show high risk, especially for a genetically resistant variety. However, keeping an eye on the forecasts and weather patterns over the next few days as your wheat flowers is recommended. If you are planning to apply fungicides for FHB, remember that triazole-containing fungicides (Miravis-Ace, Prosaro, Prosaro-Pro, and Sphaerex) should be used for controlling FHB. They can control other fungal pathogens like powdery mildew as well, in addition to scab. Strobilurin-containing fungicides should not be used at this stage.
We are requesting your assistance with gathering farmer participation in an online simulation exercise. As part of a NRCS CIG grant, UMD is leading a team of researchers from UMD, UD, and PSU to better understand how to better incentivize the adoption of novel nitrogen management practices in corn. We have a team of behavioral economists from UD as project partners and they have developed this simulation to help us better understand how to increase farmer adoption of practices through incentives and rewards.
If you are a farmer, we would greatly appreciate your feedback using this Google Form. Upon completion of the Google Form, participants will receive a link to the simulation and unique participation code via email within minutes. In the simulation, participants will make corn sidedress decisions on a simulated field over ten growing seasons and their choices will help us understand how they chose to adopt novel practices (or not). The exercise should take no longer than 30 minutes, and you can earn Nutrient Management credits for your participation, AND earn cash up to $150.
Please contact Dr. Nicole Fiorellino at nfiorell@umd.edu if you have any questions.
Nidhi Rawat, Small Grains Pathologist University of Maryland
Welcome to the wheat and barley heading and flowering season, Maryland! This is the first FHB risk forecast for this season from me, and I will continue to provide you with regular commentaries over the next 6-7 weeks. Wheat is some weeks away from flowering, but barley is starting/ will soon start to head, especially in the Eastern shore of the state. Unfortunately, for barley, there are no FHB-resistant varieties available so far. So, if you have planted barley, keep monitoring closely for the FHB risk over the next couple of weeks. With the rainy spell of the last week, and some more rain forecasted this week, currently, the Epidemiological models are showing elevated FHB risk over the next 6 days. So, if your barley is starting heading you might consider applying fungicides on it. If you are still some weeks away from your barley heading, keep monitoring for the risk. Remember, the best stage for applying FHB fungicides on barley is when the heads are completely out of the boots. The FHB fungicides are triazole-containing products (Miravis-Ace, Prosaro, Prosaro-Pro, Sphaerex). Do not apply strobilurin-containing fungicides after heading. Wheat is not at a stage susceptible to FHB right now.
Some barley growers from across the state reported stunting, yellowing, and death of barley plants in their fields. The most probable cause of this issue in my opinion is freeze injury. Sudden dips in temperature after the plants caught up after winter may have led to the issue. I have discussed this issue with the other regional pathologists from the US, and they also report similar issues in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and New York. They also think it to be a result of cold injury.
Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate | mtownsen@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension, Frederick County
Grain markets have slid significantly from the highs posted last summer that followed the perceived drought in the Midwest.
Image Credit: Barchart: December ‘24 Corn Contract from June 2023 to April 3, 2024.
Unfortunately, these drought concerns were generally unfounded as key growing areas received timely rains to keep yields from suffering in the corn belt. In fact, the U.S. set a new corn production record at 15.234 billion bushels topping the previous record set in 2016 at 15.148 billion bushels. The trifecta of a record large U.S. crop, a large Brazilian corn crop, as well as underwhelming domestic and export demand sent prices spiraling lower from August 2023 to February 2024. The March ‘24 Corn contract traded at three-year lows on February 26th dipping below $4 following 11 consecutive week-over-week price declines.
Soybeans were unfortunately no better, falling $2.90 from their summer high ($14.18) to their low ($11.28) in the March ‘24 contract. Much of the same stories plagued this market including an unrealized weather rally and outstandingly large South American production that punished U.S. export demand.
To add insult to injury, “the Funds”—traders in the market who manage money for clients as either hedges or other investment strategies hit a record 340,732 net short position in the corn market on February 20th. Simply stated, these traders placed the largest-ever bet on corn prices continuing to decline, which has placed a metaphorical wet-blanket on any hopes of a rally.
Today
Grains have rallied from the end of February and throughout March. The inflection point was the last day of notice for March hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contracts. To that point, sellers (farmers, dealers, etc.) had the choice of pricing corn at current prices or “rolling” the contract to the May contract. The bleak outlook forced many hands and stimulated selling which pulled prices lower until the selling pressure was over.
Since then, both the corn and soybean markets have rallied off the lows and recovered to price levels previously seen in early February. The upward momentum has been driven by a phenomenon known as “short covering” that creates a positive feedback loop–the more it happens, the more it happens. As prices rise, “The Funds” in their net short position lose money as their bet has turned against them. To stop this, they must exit their position by buying a contract to offset the one they previously sold1. The buying stimulates further price increases that induce another fund manager having to offset their short position. At its extreme, this feedback loop can throw prices to astronomical levels2. In this case, the bump is a welcomed change but is unlikely to send us much higher for now.
More recently, the USDA released its Prospective Plantings Report compiled from surveys asking farmers their planting intentions this season. The report suggests growers will plant 90 million acres of corn and 86 million acres of soybeans, indicating that growers are shifting acres away from corn to soybeans. This was unsurprising, however traders found this as good news as the nearby contracts in both markets traded higher the day of the report. However, traders are generally wary of this recent report given the low farmer response rate and the tendency for acreage figures to climb with subsequent USDA planting reports.
Season Outlook:
The saying, “all models are wrong, but some are useful” may hold true for commodity market predictions as well; there is a significant degree of uncertainty in any market that can render any forecast absolutely incorrect. As such, this is not meant to be a forecast but more of an observation of trends and conditions that may prove useful.
Supply and Demand Fundamentals
Image Credit: Barchart. CFTC Commitment of Traders in the Corn Market (all contracts).
Every market most fundamentally relies on the interplay between supply and demand. Currently in the grains, supply has outstripped demand. Following last year’s record crop, U.S. corn supply is almost burdensome.
A common metric that evaluates how efficiently we use the crop we grow is the Ending Stocks-to-Use (S/U) ratio derived from the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) each month. Currently, the USDA projects the 2024/25 ending stocks (that which we will not use from the crop we’re about to plant) at 2.53 billion bushels and an S/U ratio of 17.2%–a level we have not seen since the 2006 when corn traded at an average price of $2.62/bu. This current 2023/24 marketing year (ending Sept. 1, 2024) is currently pegged at 14.9% S/U ratio–well higher than the 7-10% range of the last three years and the 12.6% historical average.
The soybean side of things is only marginally better and certainly not rosy by any stretch. The current S/U ratio projection for this year’s crop is 9.9% with the current marketing year sitting at 7.6%. Both these figures are a far cry from the burdensome supplies we accrued during the 2018-2019 trade war with China (22.9% S/U) yet they signal a surplus of soybeans.
Market Movers
With the current fundamentals dreary at best, it’s pleasant to think of those things that could actually help prices higher.
Midwestern drought conditions continue to worsen throughout the growing season. US weather conditions are a significant driver of price action in the growing season–as exemplified by last year. Currently, some of the Midwest is experiencing a moderate drought, with some agronomists questioning the subsoil moisture levels before planting. Importantly, drought conditions would have to persist throughout the growing season well past planting. Generally, drought is bearish to corn in April and May as Midwest growers can plant at a breakneck pace just in time for timely rains that pull yields higher and prices lower. As evidenced by last year, corn did not rally until late-May over weather concerns and in 2012, corn did not rally until mid-June. Both these years indicate that prices will likely stay mixed until real concern over crop condition emerges during the growing season.
The South American (Brazil + Argentina) soybean production is lower than expected, improving export demand for U.S. soybeans. Soybean harvest in Brazil is nearing completion, however final production estimates remain volatile. The same is true with South American corn production: a supply-side shock could support U.S. corn prices. Brazil has completed corn planting this last week of its large safrinha corn crop. Currently, much of the key corn growing regions are in a minor drought or have experiences greater than normal rainfall. More serious and persistent crop-damaging weather events could certainly be a boon to the U.S. market.
Recently, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will likely keep the Federal Funds rate higher for longer–increasing borrowing costs. If this holds true, investors may find themselves less attracted to debt and equity markets as companies may have a more difficult time generating earnings. Instead, investors may revert back to commodities–a market often seen as a hedge against inflation–as they did in 2022. As mentioned above, this may trigger a significant unwinding of short positions which could carry the market to higher prices. Unfortunately, this is likely the most unlikely scenario for increasing commodity prices as equities soar to all time highs in recent weeks.
So What Can We Do About It?
Marketing grain in 2024 will likely be challenging on all fronts. Put another way, given the current outlook, it is incredibly unlikely that selling grain in the fall at harvest prices will be a winning strategy. Similarly, it’s unlikely that an unhedged, unpriced JFM ‘25 sale will offer anything better as there are additional storage costs involved. That said, developing a preharvest marketing strategy may very well be a key to success this marketing season. Betting on the aforementioned weather stories is hardly a marketing plan.
Like every year the first step is knowing your cost of production inside and out. Marketing opportunities will present themselves, but it will take knowing what is and what is not a good price. With today’s relatively high input costs, “yielding your way out” of low prices is more challenging than previous years. Therefore it may be more crucial than ever to make judicious agronomic decisions.
Take advantage of seasonal market patterns. Generally speaking, we see 3-6% increase in corn and soybean prices between mid-March and late-May from their post-harvest lows in January. As old crop marketing wanes, and concerns over the current year’s crop emerges (like the weather), prices rise slowly during this time. It may be best to price some grain sooner rather than later to take advantage of this general trend. Put it more directly; from May 1st to October 1st, corn prices fall more than $0.30, 74% of the time. Would you bet on something weighted 75% against you?
Track local basis. Generally, basis tends to follow broader market conditions especially when it comes to spreads between nearby and more distant contracts. Seasonal trends in basis also exist with harvest often being the low point and spring generally higher.
Keep a watchful eye on the markets this season. It may be such that prices are favorable for a day or two before they fall back lower.
Please also consider attending a University of Maryland Extension grain marketing meeting. These meetings are filled with all the above strategies, general information, and more that could help you with your marketing decisions.
Best of luck to you all. Here’s to blue skies and high prices!
