Recession Fears are Premature

Recession fears appear to be premature despite a flat yield curve (3 months vs. 10 Year Treasuries.)  All previous U.S. recessions since World War II were preceded by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too far and too fast from much higher levels.  The Great Recession of 2007-2009 was also caused by subprime mortgages and too much debt in the housing market.  With the Federal Reserve not planning to raise short term interest rates in the near future, interest rates near historically low levels, and inflation stable at 2% which is the target of the Federal Reserve, there appears to be little likelihood of a recession later this year or in 2020.