This blog post is coauthored with Kevin Ankney (Georgetown University), Benjamin Leard (University of Tennessee),  and Virginia McConnell (Resources for the Future).

Last month, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released new fuel economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions standards, respectively, for passenger cars and light trucks. These standards, which we discuss in the first article of a new blog series on the standards, aim to replace the Trump administration’s fuel economy rules, which rolled back the Obama standards for 2021–2025.

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This blog post is co-authored with Benjamin Leard (University of Tennessee) and Virginia McConnell (Resources for the Future)

Because of concern over the impacts of fossil fuels and emissions on the climate, the United States and other countries are committed to a transition away from dependence on oil in the transportation sector. As part of that transition, the Biden administration recently has proposed new, stricter vehicle fuel economy standards for light-duty vehicles (cars, SUVs, and small trucks) through the model year 2026. Auto manufacturers have long been subject to fuel economy and emissions standards for the vehicles they sell in the United States, and these proposed revisions effectively will undo the Trump administration’s efforts to weaken the standards. Still, it remains unclear how much the proposed standards will help the Biden administration achieve its ambitious greenhouse gas reduction goals.

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By Joshua Linn and Wesley Look

The Biden administration has announced a target of halving greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 relative to 2005 levels, and Congress is considering how to help achieve that target. A major question permeating the debate has been whether the policies under consideration in Congress will be sufficient to achieve such ambitious climate goals.

Recent modeling at Resources for the Future (RFF) shows that Congress’s plan to spend billions on subsidizing electric vehicles (EVs) will have little to no effect on transportation sector emissions through 2030. The subsidies probably won’t affect EV sales for at least the next five years, either. Given the same budget, a plan that jointly subsidizes clean vehicles while taxing dirty vehicles would achieve a much higher EV market share and greater emissions reductions.

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Warmer weather, wider availability of vaccines, and the end of the school year have many of us thinking about summer vacation. The resulting projected rise in gasoline demand has prompted speculation about bottlenecks in gasoline supply and shortages at gas stations—of which the recent Colonial Pipeline hack gave us a taste. But some naysayers have argued that any disruptions from increased demand will be short lived. Many point out that major employers are considering allowing staffers to work from home permanently, which would prevent gasoline demand from returning to pre-pandemic levels.

So, which is it? Will gasoline demand return to pre-pandemic levels this summer and stay there, or will demand remain lower than usual? We’ll probably have to wait until the fall to learn the long-term effects of the pandemic on gasoline demand, but data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) provide a good starting point for understanding near-term effects.

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Guest post by Roxanne Jaffe and Yuheng (Gavin) Ding

Although public transportation ridership has plummeted during the COVID-19 pandemic, e-scooter and bike-share companies as early as May 2020 expressed guarded optimism about the future of micromobility, spotting an opportunity to “capitalize on the public’s need for social distancing” while helping “avoid a return to pre-pandemic traffic levels” (Washington Post, 5/18/2020). As we enter the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic, how have these alternative forms of transportation fared relative to city transportation systems? Have consumers substituted train and bus rides for e-scooter and bike-share trips? What does this mean for the future of the micromobility industry?

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Policymakers are considering a variety of potential provisions for a forthcoming clean energy and infrastructure package, and one issue on the table is whether to extend or modify tax credits for plug-in vehicles.

Currently, a buyer of a new plug-in vehicle can earn a tax credit of up to $7,500. The amount depends on the vehicle’s battery size and whether the buyer owes enough federal income tax to claim the full credit. In addition, cars manufactured by certain automakers are no longer eligible, given that the subsidy phases out after a company passes 200,000 plug-in sales.

One obvious improvement, which seems likely to happen according to recent proposals, is to adjust the subsidy so that anyone can get it, regardless of their federal income tax bill. A different question also is being considered by policymakers: Should the subsidy be offered to any plug-in buyer, or should the subsidy favor lower-income buyers? Linking the subsidy to lower incomes would be consistent with President Joe Biden’s goal of factoring equity into climate policy, and since lower-income households are less likely than other households to buy plug-in vehicles, offering them larger subsidies could help boost the part of the market that’s struggling the most.

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Buying an electric vehicle (EV) can entitle you to a federal tax credit of up to $7,500 and possibly a few thousand extra dollars from your state, depending on where you live. While the subsidies are set to phase out as automakers reach sales targets, recent proposals could extend the subsidies through the 2020s.

Federal and state taxpayers foot the bill for the subsidies, but who actually benefits from them? This may seem like a silly question—EV buyers do, right? But in fact, most of those subsidies in the short term go to vehicle manufacturers and buyers of vehicles that run on gasoline or diesel fuel. How can that be?

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This is a guest post by Nick Molden, Founder & Chief Executive Officer, Emissions Analytics

The official story is that emissions regulations in the European Union (EU) have become relentlessly tougher since “Euro stages” were introduced in 1992, of which the current Euro 6 stage is the toughest yet. If only the progress were this smooth.

In reality, many European cities are experiencing persistent air pollution problems, thanks to a preference for diesel vehicles combined with real-world diesel emissions that greatly exceed laboratory results. On-road testing has helped bring emissions down, but the EU—stung by the VW Dieselgate scandal—is now potentially swinging to hypervigilance. What can the EU learn from past implementation of its emissions rules?

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Trucks account for a large and growing share of US greenhouse gases (GHG), second only to passenger vehicles as a source of transportation emissions. Promising technologies—such as cheaper batteries and automated driving—could help, and policymakers are increasingly focusing on other strategies to reduce truck emissions, too. Last year, for example, California introduced legislation that requires manufacturers to transition from diesel to zero-emissions trucks and vans. The Biden administration has signaled interest in electric vehicle infrastructure, and the GREEN Act of 2021 includes a tax credit for zero-emissions heavy-duty trucks and buses.

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Until last year, public transportation ridership in the United States was increasing at least three times more quickly than rides with private transportation network service (TNS) companies such as Uber and Lyft. That may be hard to imagine—especially amid the COVID-19 pandemic, with near-empty buses and subway cars traveling through major cities. But even before the pandemic, the budget shortfalls that persistently burden public transit agencies may have led people to conclude that subway and bus ridership were declining, perhaps as a result of the expansion of TNS companies. Although TNS companies have grown significantly in recent years, the data we have for public transportation and TNS ridership contradict some widely held assumptions.

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