Ag Commodity Markets: Review and Outlook

Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate | mtownsen@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Frederick County

Grain markets have slid significantly from the highs posted last summer that followed the perceived drought in the Midwest.

Image Credit: Barchart: December ‘24 Corn Contract from June 2023 to April 3, 2024.

Unfortunately, these drought concerns were generally unfounded as key growing areas received timely rains to keep yields from suffering in the corn belt. In fact, the U.S. set a new corn production record at 15.234 billion bushels topping the previous record set in 2016 at 15.148 billion bushels. The trifecta of a record large U.S. crop, a large Brazilian corn crop, as well as underwhelming domestic and export demand sent prices spiraling lower from August 2023 to February 2024. The March ‘24 Corn contract traded at three-year lows on February 26th dipping below $4 following 11 consecutive week-over-week price declines.

Soybeans were unfortunately no better, falling $2.90 from their summer high ($14.18) to their low ($11.28) in the March ‘24 contract. Much of the same stories plagued this market including an unrealized weather rally and outstandingly large South American production that punished U.S. export demand.

To add insult to injury, “the Funds”—traders in the market who manage money for clients as either hedges or other investment strategies hit a record 340,732 net short position in the corn market on February 20th. Simply stated, these traders placed the largest-ever bet on corn prices continuing to decline, which has placed a metaphorical wet-blanket on any hopes of a rally.

Today

Grains have rallied from the end of February and throughout March. The inflection point was the last day of notice for March hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contracts. To that point, sellers (farmers, dealers, etc.) had the choice of pricing corn at current prices or “rolling” the contract to the May contract. The bleak outlook forced many hands and stimulated selling which pulled prices lower until the selling pressure was over.

Since then, both the corn and soybean markets have rallied off the lows and recovered to price levels previously seen in early February. The upward momentum has been driven by a phenomenon known as “short covering” that creates a positive feedback loop–the more it happens, the more it happens. As prices rise, “The Funds” in their net short position lose money as their bet has turned against them. To stop this, they must exit their position by buying a contract to offset the one they previously sold1. The buying stimulates further price increases that induce another fund manager having to offset their short position. At its extreme, this feedback loop can throw prices to astronomical levels2. In this case, the bump is a welcomed change but is unlikely to send us much higher for now.

More recently, the USDA released its Prospective Plantings Report compiled from surveys asking farmers their planting intentions this season. The report suggests growers will plant 90 million acres of corn and 86 million acres of soybeans, indicating that growers are shifting acres away from corn to soybeans. This was unsurprising, however traders found this as good news as the nearby contracts in both markets traded higher the day of the report. However, traders are generally wary of this recent report given the low farmer response rate and the tendency for acreage figures to climb with subsequent USDA planting reports.
Season Outlook:

The saying, “all models are wrong, but some are useful” may hold true for commodity market predictions as well; there is a significant degree of uncertainty in any market that can render any forecast absolutely incorrect. As such, this is not meant to be a forecast but more of an observation of trends and conditions that may prove useful.

Supply and Demand Fundamentals

Image Credit: Barchart. CFTC Commitment of Traders in the Corn Market (all contracts).

Every market most fundamentally relies on the interplay between supply and demand. Currently in the grains, supply has outstripped demand. Following last year’s record crop, U.S. corn supply is almost burdensome.

A common metric that evaluates how efficiently we use the crop we grow is the Ending Stocks-to-Use (S/U) ratio derived from the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) each month. Currently, the USDA projects the 2024/25 ending stocks (that which we will not use from the crop we’re about to plant) at 2.53 billion bushels and an S/U ratio of 17.2%–a level we have not seen since the 2006 when corn traded at an average price of $2.62/bu. This current 2023/24 marketing year (ending Sept. 1, 2024) is currently pegged at 14.9% S/U ratio–well higher than the 7-10% range of the last three years and the 12.6% historical average.

The soybean side of things is only marginally better and certainly not rosy by any stretch. The current S/U ratio projection for this year’s crop is 9.9% with the current marketing year sitting at 7.6%. Both these figures are a far cry from the burdensome supplies we accrued during the 2018-2019 trade war with China (22.9% S/U) yet they signal a surplus of soybeans.

Market Movers

With the current fundamentals dreary at best, it’s pleasant to think of those things that could actually help prices higher.

  1. Midwestern drought conditions continue to worsen throughout the growing season. US weather conditions are a significant driver of price action in the growing season–as exemplified by last year. Currently, some of the Midwest is experiencing a moderate drought, with some agronomists questioning the subsoil moisture levels before planting. Importantly, drought conditions would have to persist throughout the growing season well past planting. Generally, drought is bearish to corn in April and May as Midwest growers can plant at a breakneck pace just in time for timely rains that pull yields higher and prices lower. As evidenced by last year, corn did not rally until late-May over weather concerns and in 2012, corn did not rally until mid-June. Both these years indicate that prices will likely stay mixed until real concern over crop condition emerges during the growing season.
  2. The South American (Brazil + Argentina) soybean production is lower than expected, improving export demand for U.S. soybeans. Soybean harvest in Brazil is nearing completion, however final production estimates remain volatile. The same is true with South American corn production: a supply-side shock could support U.S. corn prices. Brazil has completed corn planting this last week of its large safrinha corn crop. Currently, much of the key corn growing regions are in a minor drought or have experiences greater than normal rainfall. More serious and persistent crop-damaging weather events could certainly be a boon to the U.S. market.
  3. Recently, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will likely keep the Federal Funds rate higher for longer–increasing borrowing costs. If this holds true, investors may find themselves less attracted to debt and equity markets as companies may have a more difficult time generating earnings. Instead, investors may revert back to commodities–a market often seen as a hedge against inflation–as they did in 2022. As mentioned above, this may trigger a significant unwinding of short positions which could carry the market to higher prices. Unfortunately, this is likely the most unlikely scenario for increasing commodity prices as equities soar to all time highs in recent weeks.

So What Can We Do About It? 

Marketing grain in 2024 will likely be challenging on all fronts. Put another way, given the current outlook, it is incredibly unlikely that selling grain in the fall at harvest prices will be a winning strategy. Similarly, it’s unlikely that an unhedged, unpriced JFM ‘25 sale will offer anything better as there are additional storage costs involved. That said, developing a preharvest marketing strategy may very well be a key to success this marketing season. Betting on the aforementioned weather stories is hardly a marketing plan.

Like every year the first step is knowing your cost of production inside and out. Marketing opportunities will present themselves, but it will take knowing what is and what is not a good price. With today’s relatively high input costs, “yielding your way out” of low prices is more challenging than previous years. Therefore it may be more crucial than ever to make judicious agronomic decisions.

Take advantage of seasonal market patterns. Generally speaking, we see 3-6% increase in corn and soybean prices between mid-March and late-May from their post-harvest lows in January. As old crop marketing wanes, and concerns over the current year’s crop emerges (like the weather), prices rise slowly during this time. It may be best to price some grain sooner rather than later to take advantage of this general trend. Put it more directly; from May 1st to October 1st, corn prices fall more than $0.30, 74% of the time. Would you bet on something weighted 75% against you?

Track local basis. Generally, basis tends to follow broader market conditions especially when it comes to spreads between nearby and more distant contracts. Seasonal trends in basis also exist with harvest often being the low point and spring generally higher.

Keep a watchful eye on the markets this season. It may be such that prices are favorable for a day or two before they fall back lower.

Please also consider attending a University of Maryland Extension grain marketing meeting. These meetings are filled with all the above strategies, general information, and more that could help you with your marketing decisions.

Best of luck to you all. Here’s to blue skies and high prices!

Footnotes & References:

1 This may seem counter-intuitive. For a review on futures contracts please visit CME’s Self Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options.

2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GameStop_short_squeeze

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: April 2024

Reports are for crop conditions up to April 5, 2024.

Western Maryland

Wet, wet, wet. This spring is off to a very different start than last year. Late winter and early spring have gone a long way in replenishing soil moisture and groundwater. Soil temperature and moisture will delay planting for a few weeks, but we are happy to have the moisture. Chicken litter, dairy manure, and first-pass nitrogen have been applied. These rains are now filling pits uncharacteristically. We are seeing Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus in some triticale. This is new since triticale was once thought to be resistant to everything. Next fall, we will need to think about scouting for aphids. All in all we are off to a better start than 2023.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland 

We’ve had quite the up and down with the weather this month. A few days in mid-March brought highs into the 60s, but most of the month has been cooler (lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s). In the past week, areas around the region have received 2 or more inches of rain. Soil temperatures have hovered around 50 degrees F. Green-up and manure applications have gone out. Looking forward to some warmer weather next week!—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.

Northern Maryland

The past week has been cool and wet, which has been the story for most of the winter/early spring thus far. Field work has been very limited due to all the rain; second shot of nitrogen on wheat and weed control is needed as soon as the weather turns. Soil temperatures are still cool and the first seeds will not be going in the ground any time soon. Cover crops and small grains are generally variable across fields and winter annual weeds have been noticeably abundant this spring.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper and Mid Shore

No report.

Lower Shore

It’s been a wet spring, which has interrupted farm activities. Many fields are waterlogged or flooded. Farmers have been applying manure as they can get into fields. Most cover crops are still growing, which has been helpful to keep the rain water in the crop fields. No corn or soybean has been planted yet.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

Rains continue to fall with only a few days here and there suitable for field work. Farmers are practicing patience as much work remains spreading litter/manure, applying herbicides and completing field operations. If weather conditions allow, planting will commence in a couple of weeks. Soils are wet and cold at present. Small grain crops are at jointing stage. Most wheat acreage received a first application of N with the second application being made when field conditions allow. Aphids have been active in some fields. Alfalfa got off to an early start this year, and growers are encouraged to scout for alfalfa weevil which has also been active. In So MD, most populations are resistant to pyrethroids, leaving Steward as the best option. Cool season grass hayfields are greening up now. On the weed front, Virginia Pepperweed seems to be more prevalent this year. Marestail and Common Ragweed are around and need to be controlled prior to planting. Burndown applications are being made in preparation for planting. With cooler temperatures, we may struggle to kill larger Italian ryegrass, brassicas, and cereal grain with standard rates of glyphosate.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.

*Regions (counties):
Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s

UMD Grain Marketing Site Updated for 2024: Field Crop Budgets

Shannon Dill, Principal Agriculture Agent | sdill@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Talbot County

The University of Maryland Extension has updated www.go.umd.edu/grainmarketing site with new input data and spray programs for the 2024 field crop budgets.

Crop Budgets

Cost of production is very important when making decisions related to your farm enterprise and grain marketing. Preliminary surveys from 2024 UME Winter Crop Production meetings report 66% of farmers believe input costs are the greatest challenges facing their farm operation. Enterprise budgets provide valuable information regarding individual enterprises on the farm. This tool enables farm managers to make decisions regarding enterprises and plan for the coming production year. An enterprise budget uses farm revenue, variable cost, fixed cost, and net income to provide a clear picture of the financial health of each farm enterprise.

The 2024 Maryland enterprise budgets were developed using average yields and estimated input costs based on producer and farm supplier data. Fertilizer prices, pesticide availability, and fuel expenses have fluctuated greatly. The figures presented are averages and vary greatly from one farm and region to the other. It is, therefore, crucial to input actual farm data when completing enterprise budgets for your farm.

Cost Per Acre, 2024
Year Corn

No Till

Corn

Conventional

Soybeans Wheat Wheat/Beans
2021 $540 $592 $346 $401 $608
2023 $736 $800 $423 $538 $800
2024 $690 $749 $410 $514 $752
Difference 23-24 -$46 -$51 -$13 -$24 -$48
Percent Change -6% -6% -3% -4% -6%

How to Use University Enterprise Budgets

The enterprise budgets can be used as a baseline for your operation, and you can change these budgets to include your production techniques, inputs, and overall management. The budgets are available electronically in PDF or Excel. Use this document as a start or reference to create your crop budgets. Contact information is on the website if you have problems downloading any information.

2024 Crop Summary

Cost per acre expenses for 2024 have decreased a small amount from 2023 record highs. Based on estimates received cost of production includes: corn no-till costs $690 per acre, corn conventional $749 per acre, soybeans $410 per acre and wheat $514 per acre. While these are slightly (3-6%) lower than 2023 they are still 16%-22% higher than prices just 3 years ago (2021).

Considerations for Pre-Plant Applications: Italian Ryegrass

Kurt Vollmer, Weed Management Specialist | kvollmer@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension

Italian ryegrass has been giving us trouble the past couple of years. I’ve had several reports of ryegrass control failures following glyphosate applications. Last year, seeds from 49 ryegrass populations from Maryland and Delaware were screened for glyphosate-resistance by Dr. Caio Brunharo’s lab at Penn State. Out of 40 populations screened, all were controlled by glyphosate at 2 lb. ae/A.

This indicates that recent troubles controlling ryegrass may be due to application issues rather than glyphosate-resistance. This species can be particularly tricky to manage this time of the year, so it’s important to remember:

  • Cold weather affects glyphosate uptake and translocation. Applications should be made when the temperature is greater than 55°F and consistently remain above 45°F for 3 to 5 days to be effective.
  • Higher rates will be needed to control ryegrass compared to other species (1.25 to 1.5 lb. ae a/A).
  • Plants should be less than 6” but no more than 8” tall at the time of application.
  • Other components in the tank can also affect glyphosate performance.

Include a spray grade ammonium sulfate (8.5lb. to 17lb. /100 gal) in the tank to abate water quality issues. UAN and high rates of triazine herbicides (>0.25 lb. ai/A), such as atrazine, that are included in the tank can also reduce glyphosate absorption and translocation.

If glyphosate alone fails, try tank mixing or alternative herbicides. Last year at the Lower Eastern Shore REC, 98% ryegrass control was achieved with glyphosate (1.25 lb. ae/A) + clethodim (0.121 lb. /A) + nonionic surfactant (0.25%v/v) + AMS (8.5lb./100 gal) or sequential applications of paraquat (1 lb/A) + crop oil (1%v/v) + AMS (8.5lb./100 gal) made 14 days apart (Figure 1). In trials conducted in Pennsylvania, glyphosate + 0.02 lb. rimsulfuron/A also controlled ryegrass greater than 95%. Always consult the label for important information such as tank mixing and plant back intervals before applying any pesticide.

Figure 1. Italian ryegrass response 22 days after application to a) non-treated, b) glyphosate + clethodim, c) paraquat fb paraquat plots. Images: K. Vollmer, University of Maryland.

Hiring: Agricultural Technician

An Agricultural Technician is sought to provide technical support for the State Extension Agronomist with applied research and extension programming. This program performs applied research at seven UMD Research and Education Centers located across the state related to the production of corn, soybean, wheat, barley, and other crops of interest to Maryland producers. The incumbent may assist with research performed at private farms within Maryland. The incumbent will also assist with Extension programming, including preparation for field days, twilight tours, or other educational events.

To view the complete listing and to apply, go to https://ejobs.umd.edu/postings/117883. Best consideration date is April 4, 2023 and all applications must be submitted through the website. For questions or inquiries, contact Nicole Fiorellino at nfiorell@umd.edu.

Transition to Organic Production

Are you contemplating a transition to organic production, currently undergoing the transition process, or just curious about organic farming?

The University of Maryland Extension invites you to register for a half-day seminar from 8 am to 2 pm on March 19, 2024 at the Eastern Shore Higher Education Center – Chesapeake College. The agenda for the day includes presentations by Klaas Martens, Chris Johnson and Brian Kalmbach covering key topics such as the direction and future of organic production, insights into organic grain markets, and navigating certification, regulations, and requirements. Additionally, there will be a farmer roundtable discussion featuring panelists representing various aspects of organic farming, including grain, vegetable, animal, and research. Light breakfast refreshments and lunch will be served. 

Space is limited so register todayhttps://go.umd.edu/TOPP

For more information or any inquiries contact Dwayne Joseph at dwaynej@umd.edu or by calling 443-480-8369.

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: November 2023

Reports are for crop conditions up to November 16, 2023.

Western Maryland

Harvest is winding down. Nearly all of the corn and full-season beans are in the bins. Some of the double-crop beans weren’t even worth the cost of the fuel to harvest them. Cover crops are looking good as is the commodity wheat and barely. There are still a few acres that will get some rye. Manure is flying as we race to beat the December 15 deadline. Hay stocks are short but FSA has had the county designated a disaster area so there is some assistance available to make up for the shortfalls. Yields are all over the place depending on when the crop was planted and when the showers arrived. As always everyone is looking forward to 2024 being a better year.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland 

No Report.

Northern Maryland

2023 harvest has been about as smooth as anyone could ask for with very few weather interruptions. All but a few acres of corn and double-crop soybeans remain. Some rains here and there have been just enough to get cover crops and small grains off to a good start, especially those fields planted early, which have put on substantial growth and tillers. Corn yields have been very strong across most of the region and even record-setting on some farms. Soybeans on the other hand are average to below average in many fields and double-crop beans range from very poor to good. All things considered, yields (especially corn) were impressive considering how dry we started and finished the season; timely rains sure do make or break yields!—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper and Mid Shore

Both corn and soybean harvest is finishing up. The high yields across the region have made grain delivery the last fewPreview (opens in a new tab) weeks a little frustrating. Tanks and piles are full. Granaries have been working to move grain out, but purchasing grain with reduced hours. On a positive note, that seems to be resolved now. The weather has cooperated to make harvest as easy and stress free as possible. We are finally receiving some rain to replenish ground water. Small grains are off to a good start.—Jim Lewis, Caroline Co.

Lower Shore

Corn harvest is 95% complete. Most full season soybean has been harvested. It has been very dry in the region, and soybean moisture is below 13%. Soybeans are dusty and farmers are blowing off combines due to fire hazard. Soybean yields are coming in average to slightly above average depending on how much rain fields received. Double crop soybean following wheat is still a few weeks from being harvested. Wheat planting is underway and farmers are planting into dry fields. In many fields, cover crops are already seeing substantial growth and some farmers continue to drill winter cereal cover crops following soybean harvest.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

Wrap-up: The last acres of soybeans and corn are making their way off fields as we wind into the last chapters of 2023 season. The season started early, with ideal planting conditions in early April. Many growers planted beans and corn during that early window. Conditions turned dry and cooler through the latter part of April and into May and June. Growers struggled with annual ryegrass burndown control. Rains returned as we turned the page into summer and crops responded well. Concerns over the wheat and barley crop, which appeared uneven through he late spring, were unfounded. The small grain crop was of great quality and yield. Growers struggled during the later harvest period as rains delayed harvest well into July. Most corn made it through the pollination window with adequate moisture. Dry conditions returned once again in August and September, resulting in drought stress to beans and corn. Corn harvest started a little earlier than normal. Overall yield reports are above average, and something to be grateful for given the dry conditions later in the season. Beans were more of a mixed bag. Early planted beans performed well for the second year in a row, with most of the crop made by the time the rain ran out. Double crops beans ranged from very poor to very good depending on rain timing and stage of beans. The fall harvest season has been good. Wheat and barley has germinated well and is growing fast with warmer than normal fall temperatures.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.

*Regions (counties):
Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s

2023 Maryland Tar Spot of Corn Research

Andrew Kness, Senior Agriculture Agent | akness@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Harford County

Summary

Tar spot is a new foliar fungal disease of corn first discovered in the United States in 2015 and confirmed in Maryland in 2022 and was estimated to be the most significant yield-limiting disease of corn in the US in 2021 and 2022. As a new disease for our state, this project collected preliminary data on the distribution of tar spot in our state and compared the efficacy of different fungicide application timings. Through field surveys we identified and confirmed tar spot in eight Maryland Counties at a frequency of approximately 47% and at a relatively low severity rate (not exceeding 30%). These observations suggest that the tar spot pathogen can overwinter in Maryland, as it has expanded its range from two counties in 2022 to at least eight in 2023. Field evaluations of two fungicide programs: one pass program at VT and a two-pass program at VT followed by R2, we observed a significant difference in tar spot severity and plant lodging compared to the control; however, there was no difference in yield. Additional research on fungicide timing and the spread of this disease should be conducted in the future to help develop improved management recommendations.

Survey of Tar Spot Distribution in Maryland

Several fields were scouted for tar spot starting during late vegetative growth stages and frequency and intensity of scouting was increased from tassel through harvest. Initial scouting was focused in fields in Harford County near fields where tar spot was confirmed in 2022. In addition, reports were solicited from other Extension Agents and crop consultants/scouts throughout the state. Suspected positive samples were confirmed by laboratory technique and all positive samples were uploaded to the tar spot tracker map on corn.ipmpipe.org.

The first reported and confirmed incidence of tar spot in Maryland for 2023 came from a corn field in Cecil County on August 22. The second came from Carroll County on August 31, followed by Harford County on September 3. We confirmed tar spot in the additional counties of Kent and Queen Anne’s on September 19; Baltimore County on September 22; Caroline County on September 25, and Dorchester County on October 6 (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Map showing confirmed distribution of tar spot for the 2023 growing season (yellow). Map from corn.ipmpipe.org.

Several fields were scouted in Northern Harford County throughout the year surrounding fields where tar spot was confirmed in 2022. By the end of the season, tar spot was found in over 50% of these fields (9/16) at levels ranging from 2% to 25% severity (Figure 2). It was observed that tar spot severity continued to increase after black layer for as long as there was green, living tissue remaining on the plants. This increase in severity after physiological maturity does not affect yield but does make for a notably increased level of severity present at harvest and thus the potential for an increase in overwintering spores that will provide inoculum for the following year.

Figure 2. Corn leaf with approximately 10% tar spot severity. Tar spot symptoms include raised, black specks on the leaves.

An additional survey of 12 fields on Maryland’s Eastern Shore from Cecil to Queen Anne’s County was conducted on September 19. During this time, two fields were confirmed with tar spot. Severity was very low (<2%) in the field in Queen Anne’s County, and high in the field in Kent County (30%).

Altogether, tar spot was confirmed in 16 out of 34 fields (47%) scouted/reported throughout the state (Figure 3), with samples coming from as far west as Washington County (no confirmed samples) east to Cecil County (two confirmed samples) and south on the Maryland Eastern Shore as far as Dorchester County (one sample confirmed).

Figure 3. Google Earth map of fields scouted (blue markers) and confirmed (red markers) presence of tar spot. Markers are approximate locations and not precise to protect the identity of the landowner and/or farmer.

Weather conditions were favorable for tar spot on the Eastern Shore and Northern Maryland; however, severe drought conditions from Frederick County west may have prevented its widespread establishment in Western Maryland.

Based on this survey, tar spot appears to be established in all the northern counties east of Frederick and south on the Eastern shore to at least Dorchester County, at a frequency of approximately 40-50%. Judging by the confirmed occurrences in other counties in different states, it is likely that tar spot is present in more Maryland Counties than determined by this survey.

On-Farm Fungicide Trials

Fungicides are an effective management tool for foliar diseases of corn, including tar spot. Research from the Midwest has shown a positive response to fungicide applications in fields where tar spot disease severity is high. However, there is debate as to if one fungicide application made around VT is sufficient to control tar spot, as yield losses have been reported as late as R4. In 2023 we established an on-farm trial to evaluate the response to a single fungicide application compared to a two-pass program for managing tar spot in corn.

Field plots were established at a farm in Harford County, MD in a field immediately adjacent to where tar spot was found in 2022. Corn (Revere Seed ‘1307 TCRIB’) was no-till planted into soybean residue with a John Deere 1775 NT ExactEmerge™, 30-inch, 16 row planter at the rate of 35,000 seeds/acre. Rows 1, 2, 15, and 16 on the planter were shut off to create alleys between adjacent plots and to eliminate treatment overlap, as well as to ensure harvest accuracy. This resulted in 12-row plots that were between 75 and 150 feet long. Plots were arranged in the field in a randomized block with three treatments and five replicates (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Tar spot fungicide timing research plot layout.

Fungicides (Table 1) were applied at the VT and R2 growth stages using a DJI T30 drone calibrated to deliver 2.8 gallons per acre spray volume to the entire length of the 12-row plots. VT applications were made on July 12 and R2 applications were made on August 5. Trivapro 2.1 SE was used for all applications. Trivapro was selected because previous research has demonstrated that multi-mode-of-action products have the best efficacy against tar spot.

Table 1. 2023 Fungicide Treatments.

Treatment Product Name

Active Ingredient(s)

Application Rate (& Timing)
Nontreated Control N/A N/A
1X Pass Trivapro 2.1 SE

Benzovindiflupyr + Azoxystrobin + Propiconazole

13.7 fl oz/A (VT)
2X Pass Trivapro 2.1 SE

Benzovindiflupyr + Azoxystrobin + Propiconazole

13.7 fl oz/A (VT) & 13.7 fl oz/A (R2)

Foliar diseases were rated prior to fungicide application and approximately every two to three weeks following until harvest. Disease severity from tar spot was visually rated as the percent leaf area infected in the canopy from 10 random plants from the center two rows of each plot.

Lodging scores were collected at harvest by conducting a “push test” on 10 plants from the center two rows of each plot. The push test consists of pushing a corn plant approximately 30 degrees from vertical; plants that break have compromised stalk strength and were considered lodged.

Yield data were collected by harvesting 12 rows of each plot using a John Deere S780 combine on October 13, 2023. Yield data was exported from the combine monitor and RTK was used to correlate yield with plot locations since we were not able to collect individual plot weights. All yields reported are adjusted to 15.5% moisture. All data were analyzed using ANOVA and significant differences between treatments were separated using Fisher’s Least Significant Difference (LSD; α=0.10).

On-Farm Trial Results

Tar spot was first observed in the plots on August 29 present at a very low level (less than 2% severity). Overall tar spot disease severity was low throughout the season in these plots. One possible explanation for this is the early planting date, which likely allowed the corn to complete its critical reproductive growth stages before weather conditions were favorable for tar spot development.

Early disease ratings revealed a significant difference in tar spot severity (p=0.0176) in treated plots vs nontreated plots (Table 2). However, late disease ratings collected at harvest show an overall increase in tar spot severity, but no difference between treated and nontreated plots. This is likely due to the fact that fungicides can only offer around 14-21 days of protection. In this trial, the second fungicide application did not provide improved tar spot control compared to the single pass treatment; however, the single fungicide application at VT delayed tar spot infection compared to the nontreated control.

Table 2. 2023 Tar Spot Disease Rating and Harvest Data.

Treatment Tar Spot Severity (%) Lodged Plants (%) Grain Yield (bu/acre) Grain Moisture (%)
9/11/23 10/12/23
Control 3.05 a* 3.75 10.0 a 192.56 19.06
1X Pass 1.18 b 2.88   5.0 a 199.05 19.41
2X Pass 0.85 b 4.00   0.0 b 201.56 20.31
p-value 0.0176 0.4133 0.0680 0.2123 0.4343

*Treatments connected by the same letter are not significantly different from each other (α=0.10).

The control plots averaged 192.56 bu/acre with a low of 169.7 and high of 214.6; the single pass (1X pass) program yielded an average of 199.05 bu/acre with a low of 177.5 and high of 228.6 bu/acre; and the two-pass (2X pass) fungicide treatment yielded an average of 201.56 bu/acre with a low and high of 194.4 and 222.7 bu/acre, respectively. However, there are no statistically significant differences in yield between treatments (p=0.2123). Likewise, there was also no significant difference in grain moisture. Tar spot disease severity was relatively low; likely too low to impact yield in this trial, leading to no yield response.

The 2X pass fungicide program did improve standability of the crop at harvest, with 0.0% lodging, significantly better than the 1X program (5.0%) and the control (10.0%).

This work was supported by funding through the Maryland Grain Producer’s Utilization Board and in-kind support from The Mill. Special thanks to Clear Meadow Farm for their use of land and equipment making this research possible.

Optimizing Early Season Pest Management for Maryland Field Corn

Maria Cramer, PhD Candidate and Kelly Hamby, Entomology Extension Specialist
Department of Entomology, University of Maryland

Background

Research Questions

  1. Are the NST Poncho 250® and the in-furrow pyrethroid Capture LFR® effective at controlling pests and increasing yield in high-input (Bt) or low-input (non-Bt) field corn in Maryland?
  2. Do Poncho and Capture hurt slug predators and flare up slug damage?

Study Design

In order to capture the range of pest pressures and growing conditions in Maryland, we replicated our study across 3 UMD research farms (Keedysville, Beltsville, and Queenstown) and over 3 years (2020-2022). At each location we planted one field of a Bt hybrid and one field of a similarly-yielding non-Bt hybrid as early as possible in the growing season (Table 1). In 2020 our Bt hybrid was LC1196 VT2P (Local Seed, Memphis, TN) which expresses Cry1A.105/Cry2Ab2 proteins. In 2021 and 2022 we planted P1197YHR (Pioneer Hi-bred International. Johnston, IA) which contains Cry1Ab and Cry1F proteins. We planted P1197LR (Pioneer Hi-bred International, Inc. Johnston, IA) for our non-Bt hybrid all three years. All hybrids had excellent yield potential and were grown with standard no-till practices. In each field we established 3 replicates of 3 treatments at planting: 1) an untreated control, with bare seed and no in-furrow product, 2) an in-furrow pyrethroid treatment using Capture LFR® (active ingredient: bifenthrin, rate: 13.6 fl oz/acre), and 3) an NST treatment using Poncho® (active ingredient: clothianidin, rate: 0.25 mg/seed). Each replicate consisted of 24 rows of corn at 30 inch row spacing, and was 200 feet long.

Year Location Planting date Sampling dates
2020 Keedysville May 18 June 8
Beltsville May 21 June 10
Queenstown May 13 June 3 and 4
2021 Keedysville May 14 June 1 and 3
Beltsville May 17 June 2
Queenstown May 4 May 25 and 26
2022 Keedysville May 26 June 10
Beltsville June 2 June 21
Queenstown May 12 May 31

Question 1: Are the NST Poncho 250® and the in-furrow pyrethroid Capture LFR® effective at controlling pests and increasing yield in high-input (Bt) or low-input (non-Bt) field corn in Maryland?

Data Collection

In order to evaluate how the treatments affected pest pressure, we visually sampled V2-V3 corn for types of pest damage (Figure 1), recording the number of plants and area damaged. We counted the number of healthy and stunted plants to determine if the treatments impacted stand. Because neonicotinoids can sometimes stimulate plant growth unrelated to pest damage7,8, we measured plant height to determine if plant growth was impacted by either treatment. At the end of the growing season, we measured stand again and harvested the corn to collect yield data.

Figure 1. Diagnostic seedling pest damage: a) soil pest, b) cutworm, c) armyworm, d) slug, e) stinkbug, f) miscellaneous feeding damage from a spotted cucumber beetle.

Results and Takeaways for Question 1

Poncho reduced insect damage more consistently than Capture LFR (in both Bt and non-Bt corn) and increased Bt corn stand. Capture LFR sometimes reduced insect damage (in non-Bt corn), but never improved stand.

We compared the number of seedlings with any type of pest damage between treatments and found that Poncho decreased damage about 62% in Bt corn and about 66% in non-Bt corn (Figure 2a and 2b). Compared to the control, Capture did not reduce damage in the Bt corn, but did reduce damage by about half in the non-Bt. Poncho increased stand about 8% compared to control in the Bt corn (25,731 ± 456 plants per acre and 23,623 ± 714 plants per acre, respectively), but did not improve it for non-Bt. Capture did not impact stand for either Bt or non-Bt corn.

Figure 2. Mean % ± SE of seedling A) Bt and B) non-Bt corn plants damaged by pests. Data were collected across three UMD research farms from 2020-2022. Within each graph, treatment bars with different letter above them are significantly different from each other.

There were no yield benefits from using either insecticide in either corn. This was likely due to a lack of economic pest pressure.

Non-Bt and Bt yields were the same across treatments (Figure 3A and 3B). This was probably because pest pressure was so low. Even though Poncho and Capture decreased pest damage, pests were below treatment thresholds—for example, armyworm damage in the control ranged from 0% to 5.4% of Bt plants, and 0% to 22.9% of non-Bt plants, in both cases below the treatment threshold of 35%9. Cutworm damage was similarly low ranging from 1% to 6.3% in Bt control and 0.5% to 3.8% in non-Bt control, also below the treatment threshold of 10% feeding damage9.

Figure 3. Mean yield ± standard error in bushels per acre corrected to 15.5% moisture of A) Bt corn and B) non-Bt corn. Yield data from 2020-2022 across three UMD research farms. Treatments did not significantly impact yield.

Takeaway: Pest pressure and yield were similar between the Bt and non-Bt varieties, and non-Bt yielded well without any insecticides. In general, without pre-existing pest problems in a given field, at-planting insecticides are unlikely to pay off in Maryland.

Question 2: Do Poncho and Capture hurt slug predators and flare up slug damage?

Data Collection

To assess the effect of treatments on slug biocontrol agents, we measured slug predatory ground beetles and predation. We measured predatory beetles with pitfall traps for three consecutive weeks. Because the predators that eat slugs also attack caterpillars, we used sentinel caterpillars to see how much predation was occurring (Figure 4). We placed sentinel caterpillars in the plots overnight, collected them the following morning, and assessed signs of damage from predators. To determine if slugs were flared up by the treatments, we measured slug abundance once a week for 6 weeks beginning between 14 to 21 days after planting and measured slug-damaged seedlings during V2-V3.

Figure 4. Sentinel caterpillars placed in field overnight and collected in the morning to determine predator activity.

Results and Takeaways for Question 2

Predation on sentinel caterpillars was not decreased by insecticides.

We measured the percent of sentinel prey that were damaged by predators overnight (Figure 5) and saw no relationship between treatment and predation rates (Figure 6). This suggests that the insecticides did not decrease predator activity in treated plots. We did generally see some level of predation all weeks at our locations, indicating that predators are usually present in seedling corn.

Figure 5. Top: predators feeding on sentinel prey. Bottom: examples of damaged prey proportions. Images: M. Cramer, University of Maryland.
Figure 6. Mean ± SE % sentinel prey caterpillars consumed across three UMD research farms from 2020-2022. Control, Capture, and Poncho did not significantly differ.

Predator abundance was not altered by insecticides.

When we measured the weekly counts of ground beetles, we found similar results between treatments. This was true when we looked at all ground beetles (predators, omnivores, and seed-eaters), as well as when we looked only at predatory beetles (Figure 7A and 7B).

Figure 7. Mean ± SE count of A) all ground beetles, and B) specifically predatory ground beetles, caught per week in pitfall traps across three UMD research farms from 2020-2022. No significant differences.

Slug natural enemies did occur throughout the study, suggesting that biocontrol could be more intentionally leveraged.

The two most abundant ground beetle species in our study were both predators. One of these species, Chlaenius tricolor (Figure 8) is a slug predator that consumes slugs in agricultural ecosystems5,10. Although its abundance was not affected by treatments, it was present at all locations in all years, suggesting that it is a particularly important slug natural enemy in Maryland crops.

Figure 8. Chlaenius tricolor, a slug predator that was found throughout the study. Photo credit: ©Molanic 2023: https://www.inaturalist.org/photos/314013175.

Neither insecticide increased slug abundance or slug damage.

If treatments had negatively affected predators, we would expect to see more slugs and damage in the insecticide plots. However, when we compared slug counts between treatments, we found that the insecticide treatments were not different from the control (Figure 9). Slug damage to the seedling corn was also similar across the control and insecticide treatments (Figure 10).

Figure 9. Mean number of slugs per replicate plot ± SE the week closest to seedling sampling across three UMD research farms from 2020-2022. No significant differences.
Figure 10. Mean ± SE % of corn seedlings damaged by slugs across three UMD research farms from 2020-2022. Control. No significant differences.

While slugs can be damaging in many crops, the worst slug damage in our study did not affect corn stand or yield, suggesting that corn is generally tolerant of slug damage at the levels we observed in this study.

Slug damage was scarce across years and locations except in 2021 at Keedysville. Even in that case where a high proportion of seedlings (42% ± 4% on average) were damaged by slugs, we did not see an associated decrease in stand or yield. Corn seedlings were able to outgrow the slug damage as the weather warmed, even when they appeared severely defoliated. The seedling resilience we observed is supported by work on hail damage in corn which shows that as long as the growing point is intact, corn can regrow from complete defoliation11.

Even though we did not see non-target effects in this study, both pyrethroids and neonicotinoids can decrease natural enemies in crop fields6,12–14.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank the farm managers and staff of WYEREC, WMREC, and CMREC Beltsville for their expertise and assistance. We would also like to thank the Hamby lab’s many undergraduate researchers for helping complete this project with all their hard work.

Sources:

  1. Kullik, S. A., Sears, M. K. & Schaafsma, A. W. Sublethal Effects of Cry 1F Bt Corn and Clothianidin on Black Cutworm (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) Larval Development. J. Econ. Entomol. 104, 484–493 (2011).
  2. North, J. H. et al. Value of neonicotinoid insecticide seed treatments in mid-south corn (Zea mays) production systems. J. Econ. Entomol. 111, 187–192 (2018).
  3. Reisig, D. & Goldsworthy, E. Efficacy of Insecticidal Seed Treatments and Bifenthrin In-Furrow for Annual White Grub, 2016. Arthropod Manag. Tests 43, 1–2 (2017).
  4. Sappington, T. W., Hesler, L. S., Clint Allen, K., Luttrell, R. G. & Papiernik, S. K. Prevalence of sporadic insect pests of seedling corn and factors affecting risk of infestation. J. Integr. Pest Manag. 9, (2018).
  5. Douglas, M. R., Rohr, J. R. & Tooker, J. F. Neonicotinoid insecticide travels through a soil food chain, disrupting biological control of non-target pests and decreasing soya bean yield. J. Appl. Ecol. 52, 250–260 (2015).
  6. Dubey, A., Lewis, M. T., Dively, G. P. & Hamby, K. A. Ecological impacts of pesticide seed treatments on arthropod communities in a grain crop rotation. J. Appl. Ecol. 57, 936–951 (2020).
  7. Ding, J. et al. Thiamethoxam, clothianidin, and imidacloprid seed treatments effectively control thrips on corn under field conditions. J. Insect Sci. 18, (2018).
  8. Preetha, G. & Stanley, J. Influence of neonicotinoid insecticides on the plant growth attributes of cotton and okra. J. Plant Nutr. 35, 1234–1245 (2012).
  9. Flessner, M. & Taylor, S. V. 2021 Field Crops Pest Management Guide. Virginia Cooperative Extension (2021) doi:10.1016/B978-0-12-394807-6.00031-9.
  10. Eskelson, M. J., Chapman, E. G., Archbold, D. D., Obrycki, J. J. & Harwood, J. D. Molecular identification of predation by carabid beetles on exotic and native slugs in a strawberry agroecosystem. Biol. Control 56, 245–253 (2011).
  11. Thomason, W. & Battaglia, M. Early defoliation effects on corn plant stands and grain yield. Agron. J. 5024–5032 (2020) doi:10.1002/agj2.20402.
  12. Disque, H. H., Hamby, K. A., Dubey, A., Taylor, C. & Dively, G. P. Effects of clothianidin-treated seed on the arthropod community in a mid-Atlantic no-till corn agroecosystem. Pest Manag. Sci. 75, 969–978 (2019).
  13. Bhatti, M. A. et al. Field Evaluation of the Impact of Corn Rootworm (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)–Protected <I>Bt</I> Corn on Foliage-Dwelling Arthropods. Environ. Entomol. 34, 1336–1345 (2006).
  14. Taravati, S., Mannion, C., McKenzie, C. & Osborne, L. Lethal and Sublethal Effects of Selected Systemic and Contact Insecticides on Nephaspis oculata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), in a Tri-Trophic System. J. Econ. Entomol. 112, 543–548 (2018).

2023 Maryland Corn Hybrid Trial Results

Nicole Fiorellino, Extension Agronomist | nfiorell@umd.edu
University of Maryland, College Park

Please find attached a copy of the 2023 Corn Hybrid Trials results performed annually at multiple UMD Research and Education Centers. The factsheet can also be downloaded from the MD Crops website at https://psla.umd.edu/extension/md-crops. Many thanks to Louis Thorne and Joe Crank for their leadership and management of the trials, from seed organization, to planting, to harvest. These trials could not be completed without them.

We are grateful for the funding provided by Maryland Grain Producers Utilization Board to support these trials. MGPUB provides our program with checkoff funding to support applied agricultural research and generate results that directly benefit Maryland producers.

For more information on how to interpret and utilize hybrid/variety trial data, check out our fact sheet, What do the numbers really mean? Interpreting variety trial results.

Click here to download the 2023 corn hybrid results