Category: Soybeans

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: August 2024

Reports are for crop conditions up to August 1, 2024.

Western Maryland

Welcome rains have sporadically arrived in Washington County. This has been the story for much of the summer. It depends on your location and how much rain you receive, out of which storms. Earlier in the spring, the southern part of the county was blessed more than the part that hugs the Mason-Dixon Line. July has seen that trend nearly turned on its head. Wheat is off, and test weights and yields were good. Many acres of optimistic double-crop beans were planted again. Moisture has dictated the success of those plantings. It is too soon to make any predictions on corn yields, but in many places, plants are shorter, but the ears might fill just fine. So we wait. In two weeks, choppers will start running, and corn silage will be our first indicator of yields. Peach harvest started a little early, and they are smaller, and yields are lower, but they are sweet.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland 

Corn and soybeans are well into reproductive stages and further along than previous years. Most of the region has experienced drought conditions throughout the growing season. Some growers have begun chopping early corn silage given how far hot dry weather has pushed the crop. Very limited disease pressure throughout the region. Recent rains have been welcomed, where received. Most precipitation events have been sporadically distributed to say the least.—Mark Townsend, Frederick Co.

Northern Maryland

We ended July with around 3” of rain here at the Harford County Extension office. Rains were more periodic in July; however, that is not the case for the entire region—rains continue to be scarce the further west into Baltimore and Carroll County you go and the rain that has fallen across our region has been very scattered and localized. You can find corn that looks very good and you can find corn that looks very poor all in the same county. I do believe that most places are “holding on” in terms of yield—I think we will fare OK and we may have avoided a complete disaster but corn yields will certainly be off of our norm. Soybeans are flowering and look good; if they can fill all the pods they’re initiating then soybean yields should be strong; the next few weeks will make or break them.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper and Mid Shore

The first couple of weeks in July brought us more of the high temperatures we’ve been experiencing, but unlike June, we were finally blessed with some much-needed rain across the region. While some areas received more rain than others, it was all welcome. The timing couldn’t have been better, as most of the corn was entering the reproductive stages right at the start of the month. Due to this, late-planted corn is likely to yield better than the earlier-planted corn. Both full-season soybeans and corn are now in their reproductive stages. Most of the corn has finished pollination and is moving into kernel development. On the small grains front, yields were either on par with or lower than last year, with not many reports of fields outdoing last year’s yields. The recent rains have also triggered a flush of weeds. If you look out over the soybean canopy, you’ll see those notorious pigweeds, common lambsquarters, morningglories, and annual grasses making an appearance, especially in the lesser-managed fields.—Dwayne Joseph, Kent

Lower Shore

We have had periodic rains the last few weeks and much of the drought damaged corn is greening up. Farmers are optimistic that the corn will pull through and have average yields. The later planted corn the better, in terms of less drought damage. Most corn is now in reproductive stages. Some corn is being aerially sprayed with fungicides. Milo is heading out. Soybean also faced drought damage, but is looking good with the recent rains. Double crop beans are starting to take off with growth. Substantial weed or pest pressure has not been reported..—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

The region is finally getting some relief from the hot dry conditions we have experienced since June. Rain showers have been scattered, so some areas are better off than others. Unfortunately, some of the rains have come a bit late for corn which was past pollination. For the conditions this year, the crop overall looks much better than should be expected. Soybeans follow much of the same story. Many full season beans could never get off the ground with a lack of moisture and constant deer predation. These plants are now trying to canopy and flower but are way behind schedule for this time of year. Weeds, especially annual grasses, marestail, Palmer amaranth and common ragweed have taken advantage of the extra sunlight and lack of canopy closure to germinate. Many fields are speckled with these weeds coming in later in the season.  Double crops beans struggled to germinate in the dry conditions or were planted late. They have made good strides in the last couple of weeks. Vegetable crops are coming off now with a consolidated harvest season due to the hot temperatures as of late squeezing the harvest window.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.

*Regions (counties):
Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s

Podworms in Soybeans

Emily Zobel, Senior Agriculture Agent Associate | ezobel@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Dorchester County

The second generation of corn earworms/podworms/headworms (Helicoverpa zea Boddie, Figure 1) will soon emerge from corn fields and other crops. On soybeans, the podworms may feed on foliage, flowers, and fruit. Female moths will lay eggs over the entire plant, but caterpillars prefer to feed on tender vegetative terminals and/or flower clusters. Fields in bloom to pod-set stage with an open canopy and stressed soybeans during this second-generation flight typically reach the highest populations and are at the most risk. Due to our early summer weather this year, more fields might be at risk compared to last year. Podworm populations can be spotty, so one field may have high podworm populations while the field next to it may have low podworm populations. The only way to know what is happening in a particular field is to sample it. You can sample pod worms using either a sweep net or drop cloth.

Figure 1. Corn earworm/soybean podworm moths are robust, light brownish-tan with a 1” to 1 1/2” wingspan. They have a prominent dark spot on each forewing. They tend to be active during the evening and dark hours but can be commonly seen in fields during the day. Photo by Ronald Smith, Auburn University, Bugwood.org.

Thresholds are generally around 2-3 worms per 15 sweeps. NC State University (NCSU) has a nice podworm threshold calculator that helps you customize your threshold based on treatment cost, row width, and price of the bean into consideration: https://bit.ly/NCSUwormthershold. Davis Owen, Delaware Extension Entomologist, recommended applying Besiege or Elevest at their low rates last year to control soybean podworms. Pyrethroids are not guaranteed to provide good efficacy.

Even though fields in the bloom stage are at risk for high populations of podworms, it is generally recommended not to spray during this stage and instead wait for the end of flowering or early pod set to treat. Soybean plants produce more flowers than they can convert into pods. A study conducted by NCSU has found that soybean plants can compensate for this loss of flowers due to caterpillar feeding damage. No yield losses were recorded even with caterpillar levels three times higher than the economic threshold for podding-stage soybeans. Also, young caterpillars tend to have a high mortality rate. They are often difficult to reach with chemical controls while feeding within flower clusters.

Continue to scout during pod growth and fill, as serious yield loss can occur when large caterpillars coincide with soybean seeds that have achieved almost full size.

Soybean Research Field Day (NEW DATE)

NEW DATE: August 20, 2024 | 9-1 pm | Wye Research and Education Center

Join UMD researchers for a soybean field day highlighting current soybean research. Topics include:

  • A New Kind of Farmer Participatory Research – UMD TAPS
  • Crop and Soil Impacts of Basalt Application
  • Earlier Planting Date and Decreased Population of Full Season Early Maturity Soybeans
  • Evaluation of Early Maturity Soybeans for Maryland Production
  • Improving Herbicide Resistant Weed Management
  • Optimizing Precision Irrigation Management for Soybean Production in Maryland

This free event at the Wye Research and Education Center is sponsored and hosted by the Maryland Soybean Board and the University of Maryland. Lunch will be provided so please register: soyfieldday24.eventbrite.com

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: July 2024

Reports are for crop conditions up to July 5, 2024.

Western Maryland

Dry, dry, dry. The pleasant spring has turned into a dry summer so far. Even when the heat isn’t oppressive, the sun is bright, and the wind blows all wonderful conditions for drying out things. Corn and full-season bean planting is a memory. Wheat harvest is in full swing, and yields and test weights are good. Two cuttings of alfalfa are off, and we are hoping for enough moisture to make a third cutting. Double-crop beans are going in the ground, further proving that farmers are the most optimistic people on the planet. Until next month, keep looking up. One day, those clouds will have rain in them, and we will need it.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland 

The wet spring resulted in lots of slugs and replanted soybeans. However, in the last few weeks, the rain has disappeared here in Montgomery County. Temperatures have soared into the upper 90s, resulting in some very dry topsoil, subsoil which is quickly losing moisture, and drought-stressed crops. Some corn fields are starting to tassel, and soybeans are beginning to flower.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.

Northern Maryland

June was unusually dry and we are in a drought situation. Wheat and barley harvest and straw baling was a breeze to the dry weather, and harvest came about 1-2 weeks earlier than normal due to the dry, windy June. Yields were not near the record-setting numbers we’ve seen the past two years but they were still respectable. Having small grains off early will greatly benefit double-crop soybeans, assuming there’s enough moisture in the ground to germinate them. Earliest planted corn is in tassel by July 4 and we thankfully got a couple of decent storms just as tassels were pushing through and alleviated drought scenarios in many fields; that rain likely saved several bushels. Full season soybeans are also starting to come along nicely now after a slow start that some moisture is back in the soil.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper and Mid Shore

Center pivots have been working double time, keeping corn and soybean fields in the region irrigated amid the ongoing dry spell. Significant rain events are a distant memory, and the summer solstice has brought record heat, contributing to visible water stress symptoms on non-irrigated fields. All corn acres are planted, and early-planted corn is currently tasseling. Small grain harvest is progressing well, aided by the dry weather, which has extended the harvest window. As the small grain harvest wraps up, double-crop beans will soon be planted. Meanwhile, sprayers are busy applying post-emergence herbicides to fields to manage pre-emergence weed escapes, most likely due to the absence of an activating rain. Hopefully we get some rainfall soon.—Dwayne Joseph, Kent Co.

Lower Shore

We had a very dry couple of weeks. Crops were showing signs of drought stress with stunting and leaf burning in some fields. This was followed by a 2-4” rain event across much of the Lower Shore. Corn is approaching late vegetative stages, but not yet tasseling. Wheat has been harvested and double crop soybean planted.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

No report.

*Regions (counties):
Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: June 2024

Reports are for crop conditions up to June 6, 2024.

Western Maryland

I have a  good friend who says, “I don’t have forty years of experience farming; I have one year’s experience forty times.” This spring has been just like that. We have had more moisture than last year, but then came the hot days, cool weather, and more moisture. Corn is planted, and the first cutting of hay is in the barn. Soybean planting is winding down, and grain harvest will be here before you know it, starting with barley. With the moisture we will see how much disease took its toll. Fungicide applications weren’t always as timely as we would hope because of the frequent showers. Until next month when harvest is underway it is then the story will be told.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland 

Planting is almost complete. Slugs have been an issue; some soybean fields will need replanting. It was getting a bit dry, which did provide a good hay-making window. However, a thunderstorm is rolling in as I write this, giving us some needed moisture. Small grains are looking good. Summer annual weeds like pigweed, crabgrass, and foxtail are starting to take off with this warmer weather.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.

Northern Maryland

Spring has been a little challenging in our area. A dry spell in mid-late April made herbicide efficacy less than ideal, followed by several weeks of a lot of rain, which activated herbicides but prevented the timely termination of other cover crops. Early planted corn and beans are up and out of the ground, with earliest planted corn around V6 and getting it’s second shot of nitrogen. Rainy weather in late April early May delayed planting the remainder of the crop by about two weeks. These later planted fields are much further behind than usual but are looking good. There has been some slug damage present, it gets worse the further west you go in the region. Barley nearing harvest and wheat is starting to turn. There are symptoms of head scab but it remains to be seen how severe DON levels are in the grain. The wet weather has made it very difficult to make timely dry hay.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper and Mid Shore

Corn acreage is looking good, with a nice color and uniform growth. Depending on when it was planted, corn is in the V2 to V5 stages right now. Most of our full-season soybeans are already in the ground. As usual, rain across the region has been hit or miss, with some areas getting a lot more than others. These downpours might not be ideal, but they’re certainly better than no rain at all. Barley harvest is just around the corner. Summer annual weeds are popping up and are ready to impact yield potential. If your residual herbicide program hasn’t kept them in check, now’s the time for a POST application. And remember, using multiple modes of action in your tank-mix slows down the evolution of herbicide resistance in weeds.—Dwayne Joseph, Kent Co.

Lower Shore

has been planted and currently in emergence stage to around V4 stage. Corn is looking good, and being sprayed to combat early season weeds. Soybean planting is currently underway. In a few instances, early planted soybean (early April) had to be replanted due to slug damage. Wheat is looking good and drying down. Farmers are gearing up to cut wheat, which is earlier than anticipated.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

As I write this, a very welcome rain is falling outside my window. As we move into the hotter days of June, the old adage that we are only a week away from a drought at any time is holding true. Two weeks ago it was too wet to get into fields and this week we have corn fields starting to show curling leaves and drought stress. In general corn is off to a good start with most sidedress N applications completed. There have been a lot of catch up full season beans planted in the last 2 weeks. Slug feeding has been minimal this year. Barley is drying down with harvest expected any day. Wheat will not be far behind. Ryegrass continues to be a challenge for producers in both burndown situations in corn and beans, as well as small grains. Many fields may need a harvest aid to kill the ryegrass and allow for timely harvest of wheat. Given the wet conditions following flowering, we are encouraging producers to get the wheat crop off as quick as possible to maintain grain quality.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.

*Regions (counties):
Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s

June IPM Insect Scouting Tips

Emily Zobel, Senior Agriculture Agent Associate | ezobel@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Dorchester County

Corn

Continue scouting for cutworms and stink bugs. The threshold for cutworms is 2-5% cut plants up to the V5 stage and with active larvae present. Stinkbugs will move into corn as surrounding small grains are harvested. When scouting for stinkbugs, pay close attention to the thorax of brown color stink bugs as the beneficial spined soldier bug is often mistaken for the invasive brown marmorated stink bug. The spined soldier bug has a prominent spine on each “shoulder.” NCSU’s suggested threshold is 13 stinkbugs per 100 plants for V1-V6, 10 stinkbugs per 100 plants for V14-VT, and 28 stinkbugs per 100 plants for R1-R2. The most critical time to treat if between V14 to VT is just before the primary ear is exposed to avoid banana ear. Stinkbugs will likely be around the primary ear at this point so that should be the target of the application.

Soybean

Early-season defoliator pests that are active right now include bean leaf beetles, green cloverworms, slugs, and grasshoppers. Soybeans can typically withstand a decent amount of defoliation before yield losses occur. If defoliation reaches 30%, and you are finding one grasshopper per sweep or 2-3 bean leaf beetles per plant treatment may be advisable.

Figure 1. Bean leaf beetle with feeding damage on a soybean leaf. Photo by Adam Sisson, Iowa State University, Bugwood.org.

Alfalfa

Begin scouting for potato leafhopper. Ten sets of 10-20 sweeps using a sweep net should be taken in random locations in the field. A detail threshold for alfalfa is based on the plant size and cost of the hay can be found online but a general guideline is  3” or less is 20 leafhoppers per 100 sweeps, 4-6” tall is 50 per 100 sweeps, 7-10” tall is 100 per 100 sweeps, and greater than 11” is 150 per 100 sweeps. If the field is more than 60 percent bud stage or if it has experienced “hopper burn,” the alfalfa should be cut instead of sprayed. Fresh-cut alfalfa should not be sprayed as leafhopper adults tend to move out of the field when it is being cut.

Figure 2. Potato leafhoppers in a sweep net. Photo by Bryan Jensen, University of Wisconsin, Bugwood.org.

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: May 2024

Reports are for crop conditions up to May 3, 2024.

Western Maryland

April has brought us many showers. The triticale is all in the silos for the most part, and corn planting has begun. The wheat and the barley are looking good. Producers have a keen eye out for FHB, and thus, fungicide is on the docket. Pastures are looking good and first cutting alfalfa is not far off. Warmer temperatures are on the horizon.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland 

The wet, cool spring has turned into a hot, dry spring this week. Currently, the highest chance of rain (about 60%) is for this weekend. Planting is in full swing, and the first cutting of orchardgrass will start in a couple weeks. Wheat and barley are heading; if the drier weather keeps up, it will lower the risk for Fusarium.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.

Northern Maryland

Rain has been hard to come by with only about 1” of accumulated rain in the last 4 weeks. Corn and soybean planting has been in rolling for 2.5 weeks now, with a very large majority of it within the last week to 10 days or so. Small grains generally look very good, pastures and hay fields have also enjoyed the cooler than normal March and April. Wheat is anywhere from boot to head emergence. After a soggy start to April, we could use some rain.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper and Mid Shore

The rains from early in the month are now just a memory, with clear skies and no significant rainfall since. Dust clouds swirling on the horizon are a clear sign that #Plant2024 is underway. Farmers are terminating their cover crops and tilling the soil, readying it for planting. This year, we’re running a week or two ahead of last year’s schedule, raising hopes for another bumper crop. Small grains are currently heading, with some currently flowering.—Dwayne Joseph, Kent Co.

Lower Shore

After a rainy stretch, we’ve gotten some dry weather this past week. About half or more of cover crop acreage has been terminated. Some ground is being tilled, while the majority will be planted no-till. Corn is currently being planted. Wheat is looking very good. If wheat varieties are susceptible to Fusarium Head Blight and if the wheat is flowering, fungicides should be considered. The first cutting of hay has started.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

Field conditions are a mixed bag. Areas to the north have turned dry in the last week. Areas to the south received more rain delaying field operations. In drier areas, soil has become hard and compacted, aggravated by wet conditions over the winter. This is a year where big differences in soil conditions can be observed between no-till and tilled fields. Planters have been rolling for the last two weeks with conditions mostly ideal for planting. Corn emergence looks good so far. Slugs were a concern early, but drier weather has helped with that issue. We have many acres of early planted soybeans again this year. Burndown programs have been challenged this year with many escapes of annual ryegrass. Wheat is headed and beginning to flower now. We are observing some yellowing of the flag leaf and leaf below the flag leaf across many fields that showed up in the last 10 days. We are working to determine the exact cause, but believe it related to environmental conditions with perhaps some virus issues like BYDV as well. A lot of good dry hay has been made in the last two weeks. On the fruit and vegetable front, plasticulture strawberries look very good and are ripening now. All of our main season vegetable crops are preparing to go in the ground this week. High tunnel crops are coming off now.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.

*Regions (counties):
Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s

Planting Green Workshop/Field Day

Farmers and ag service providers are invited to learn about the latest research on planting green techniques and slug control methods.

Activities will include:

  • Planting green demonstration
  • Biomass and root sampling activities
  • Soil pit investigation
  • Slug scouting and control methods
  • Single species and mixes, sandy and clayey soils

When: Thursday, May 9, 2024 9:30 am – 2:30 pm

*Field day will include coffee, light breakfast and lunch

Where: Central Maryland Research and Education Center

12000 Beaver Dam Rd, Glenn Dale, MD 20769

For More information and to register: https://millionacrechallenge.org/planting-green-workshop/

Ag Commodity Markets: Review and Outlook

Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate | mtownsen@umd.edu
University of Maryland Extension, Frederick County

Grain markets have slid significantly from the highs posted last summer that followed the perceived drought in the Midwest.

Image Credit: Barchart: December ‘24 Corn Contract from June 2023 to April 3, 2024.

Unfortunately, these drought concerns were generally unfounded as key growing areas received timely rains to keep yields from suffering in the corn belt. In fact, the U.S. set a new corn production record at 15.234 billion bushels topping the previous record set in 2016 at 15.148 billion bushels. The trifecta of a record large U.S. crop, a large Brazilian corn crop, as well as underwhelming domestic and export demand sent prices spiraling lower from August 2023 to February 2024. The March ‘24 Corn contract traded at three-year lows on February 26th dipping below $4 following 11 consecutive week-over-week price declines.

Soybeans were unfortunately no better, falling $2.90 from their summer high ($14.18) to their low ($11.28) in the March ‘24 contract. Much of the same stories plagued this market including an unrealized weather rally and outstandingly large South American production that punished U.S. export demand.

To add insult to injury, “the Funds”—traders in the market who manage money for clients as either hedges or other investment strategies hit a record 340,732 net short position in the corn market on February 20th. Simply stated, these traders placed the largest-ever bet on corn prices continuing to decline, which has placed a metaphorical wet-blanket on any hopes of a rally.

Today

Grains have rallied from the end of February and throughout March. The inflection point was the last day of notice for March hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contracts. To that point, sellers (farmers, dealers, etc.) had the choice of pricing corn at current prices or “rolling” the contract to the May contract. The bleak outlook forced many hands and stimulated selling which pulled prices lower until the selling pressure was over.

Since then, both the corn and soybean markets have rallied off the lows and recovered to price levels previously seen in early February. The upward momentum has been driven by a phenomenon known as “short covering” that creates a positive feedback loop–the more it happens, the more it happens. As prices rise, “The Funds” in their net short position lose money as their bet has turned against them. To stop this, they must exit their position by buying a contract to offset the one they previously sold1. The buying stimulates further price increases that induce another fund manager having to offset their short position. At its extreme, this feedback loop can throw prices to astronomical levels2. In this case, the bump is a welcomed change but is unlikely to send us much higher for now.

More recently, the USDA released its Prospective Plantings Report compiled from surveys asking farmers their planting intentions this season. The report suggests growers will plant 90 million acres of corn and 86 million acres of soybeans, indicating that growers are shifting acres away from corn to soybeans. This was unsurprising, however traders found this as good news as the nearby contracts in both markets traded higher the day of the report. However, traders are generally wary of this recent report given the low farmer response rate and the tendency for acreage figures to climb with subsequent USDA planting reports.
Season Outlook:

The saying, “all models are wrong, but some are useful” may hold true for commodity market predictions as well; there is a significant degree of uncertainty in any market that can render any forecast absolutely incorrect. As such, this is not meant to be a forecast but more of an observation of trends and conditions that may prove useful.

Supply and Demand Fundamentals

Image Credit: Barchart. CFTC Commitment of Traders in the Corn Market (all contracts).

Every market most fundamentally relies on the interplay between supply and demand. Currently in the grains, supply has outstripped demand. Following last year’s record crop, U.S. corn supply is almost burdensome.

A common metric that evaluates how efficiently we use the crop we grow is the Ending Stocks-to-Use (S/U) ratio derived from the USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) each month. Currently, the USDA projects the 2024/25 ending stocks (that which we will not use from the crop we’re about to plant) at 2.53 billion bushels and an S/U ratio of 17.2%–a level we have not seen since the 2006 when corn traded at an average price of $2.62/bu. This current 2023/24 marketing year (ending Sept. 1, 2024) is currently pegged at 14.9% S/U ratio–well higher than the 7-10% range of the last three years and the 12.6% historical average.

The soybean side of things is only marginally better and certainly not rosy by any stretch. The current S/U ratio projection for this year’s crop is 9.9% with the current marketing year sitting at 7.6%. Both these figures are a far cry from the burdensome supplies we accrued during the 2018-2019 trade war with China (22.9% S/U) yet they signal a surplus of soybeans.

Market Movers

With the current fundamentals dreary at best, it’s pleasant to think of those things that could actually help prices higher.

  1. Midwestern drought conditions continue to worsen throughout the growing season. US weather conditions are a significant driver of price action in the growing season–as exemplified by last year. Currently, some of the Midwest is experiencing a moderate drought, with some agronomists questioning the subsoil moisture levels before planting. Importantly, drought conditions would have to persist throughout the growing season well past planting. Generally, drought is bearish to corn in April and May as Midwest growers can plant at a breakneck pace just in time for timely rains that pull yields higher and prices lower. As evidenced by last year, corn did not rally until late-May over weather concerns and in 2012, corn did not rally until mid-June. Both these years indicate that prices will likely stay mixed until real concern over crop condition emerges during the growing season.
  2. The South American (Brazil + Argentina) soybean production is lower than expected, improving export demand for U.S. soybeans. Soybean harvest in Brazil is nearing completion, however final production estimates remain volatile. The same is true with South American corn production: a supply-side shock could support U.S. corn prices. Brazil has completed corn planting this last week of its large safrinha corn crop. Currently, much of the key corn growing regions are in a minor drought or have experiences greater than normal rainfall. More serious and persistent crop-damaging weather events could certainly be a boon to the U.S. market.
  3. Recently, the Federal Reserve signaled that it will likely keep the Federal Funds rate higher for longer–increasing borrowing costs. If this holds true, investors may find themselves less attracted to debt and equity markets as companies may have a more difficult time generating earnings. Instead, investors may revert back to commodities–a market often seen as a hedge against inflation–as they did in 2022. As mentioned above, this may trigger a significant unwinding of short positions which could carry the market to higher prices. Unfortunately, this is likely the most unlikely scenario for increasing commodity prices as equities soar to all time highs in recent weeks.

So What Can We Do About It? 

Marketing grain in 2024 will likely be challenging on all fronts. Put another way, given the current outlook, it is incredibly unlikely that selling grain in the fall at harvest prices will be a winning strategy. Similarly, it’s unlikely that an unhedged, unpriced JFM ‘25 sale will offer anything better as there are additional storage costs involved. That said, developing a preharvest marketing strategy may very well be a key to success this marketing season. Betting on the aforementioned weather stories is hardly a marketing plan.

Like every year the first step is knowing your cost of production inside and out. Marketing opportunities will present themselves, but it will take knowing what is and what is not a good price. With today’s relatively high input costs, “yielding your way out” of low prices is more challenging than previous years. Therefore it may be more crucial than ever to make judicious agronomic decisions.

Take advantage of seasonal market patterns. Generally speaking, we see 3-6% increase in corn and soybean prices between mid-March and late-May from their post-harvest lows in January. As old crop marketing wanes, and concerns over the current year’s crop emerges (like the weather), prices rise slowly during this time. It may be best to price some grain sooner rather than later to take advantage of this general trend. Put it more directly; from May 1st to October 1st, corn prices fall more than $0.30, 74% of the time. Would you bet on something weighted 75% against you?

Track local basis. Generally, basis tends to follow broader market conditions especially when it comes to spreads between nearby and more distant contracts. Seasonal trends in basis also exist with harvest often being the low point and spring generally higher.

Keep a watchful eye on the markets this season. It may be such that prices are favorable for a day or two before they fall back lower.

Please also consider attending a University of Maryland Extension grain marketing meeting. These meetings are filled with all the above strategies, general information, and more that could help you with your marketing decisions.

Best of luck to you all. Here’s to blue skies and high prices!

Footnotes & References:

1 This may seem counter-intuitive. For a review on futures contracts please visit CME’s Self Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options.

2 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GameStop_short_squeeze

Maryland Regional Crop Reports: April 2024

Reports are for crop conditions up to April 5, 2024.

Western Maryland

Wet, wet, wet. This spring is off to a very different start than last year. Late winter and early spring have gone a long way in replenishing soil moisture and groundwater. Soil temperature and moisture will delay planting for a few weeks, but we are happy to have the moisture. Chicken litter, dairy manure, and first-pass nitrogen have been applied. These rains are now filling pits uncharacteristically. We are seeing Barley Yellow Dwarf Virus in some triticale. This is new since triticale was once thought to be resistant to everything. Next fall, we will need to think about scouting for aphids. All in all we are off to a better start than 2023.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.

Central Maryland 

We’ve had quite the up and down with the weather this month. A few days in mid-March brought highs into the 60s, but most of the month has been cooler (lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s). In the past week, areas around the region have received 2 or more inches of rain. Soil temperatures have hovered around 50 degrees F. Green-up and manure applications have gone out. Looking forward to some warmer weather next week!—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.

Northern Maryland

The past week has been cool and wet, which has been the story for most of the winter/early spring thus far. Field work has been very limited due to all the rain; second shot of nitrogen on wheat and weed control is needed as soon as the weather turns. Soil temperatures are still cool and the first seeds will not be going in the ground any time soon. Cover crops and small grains are generally variable across fields and winter annual weeds have been noticeably abundant this spring.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.

Upper and Mid Shore

No report.

Lower Shore

It’s been a wet spring, which has interrupted farm activities. Many fields are waterlogged or flooded. Farmers have been applying manure as they can get into fields. Most cover crops are still growing, which has been helpful to keep the rain water in the crop fields. No corn or soybean has been planted yet.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.

Southern Maryland

Rains continue to fall with only a few days here and there suitable for field work. Farmers are practicing patience as much work remains spreading litter/manure, applying herbicides and completing field operations. If weather conditions allow, planting will commence in a couple of weeks. Soils are wet and cold at present. Small grain crops are at jointing stage. Most wheat acreage received a first application of N with the second application being made when field conditions allow. Aphids have been active in some fields. Alfalfa got off to an early start this year, and growers are encouraged to scout for alfalfa weevil which has also been active. In So MD, most populations are resistant to pyrethroids, leaving Steward as the best option. Cool season grass hayfields are greening up now. On the weed front, Virginia Pepperweed seems to be more prevalent this year. Marestail and Common Ragweed are around and need to be controlled prior to planting. Burndown applications are being made in preparation for planting. With cooler temperatures, we may struggle to kill larger Italian ryegrass, brassicas, and cereal grain with standard rates of glyphosate.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.

*Regions (counties):
Western: Garrett, Allegany, Washington. Central: Frederick, Montgomery, Howard. Northern: Harford, Baltimore, Carroll. Upper & Mid Shore: Cecil, Kent, Caroline, Queen Anne, Talbot. Lower Shore: Dorchester, Somerset, Wicomico. Southern: St. Mary’s, Anne Arundel, Charles, Calvert, Prince George’s