Kurt Vollmer, Weed Management Specialist | kvollmer@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension
Many may be preparing to apply certain postemergence herbicides to soybeans in the next couple of weeks. Those planning to spray Liberty (glufosinate) or Enlist One (2,4-D), should be aware that time is running out to spray these herbicides this season. The crop cutoff stage to apply Liberty in soybeans is “R1” and Enlist or Enlist Duo is “through R1.”
In addition, many may want to apply one of these products as a rescue treatment to control large weeds. At this time of year, it is likely that these weeds are beyond the label recommended growth stage. Some may have previously applied glufosinate and want to follow up with 2,4-D or vice versa. However, research has shown that tank mixing these products will provide better control of larger weeds compared to individual products alone. Both of these products can be applied over the top of E3 soybeans. Consider using the maximum-labeled rate for each herbicide. Liberty can be applied at maximum rate of 43 fl oz/A per application (87 fl oz/year) and Enlist One can be applied at a maximum rate of 2 pt/A (6 pt/year). Be sure to include 1.5 to 3 lbs of ammonium sulfate, apply at a spray volume of 15 gal/A, and follow all label instructions concerning drift.
New Extension Program: Frederick County Grain Marketing Meeting The University of Maryland Extension Frederick County will now host a bi-weeky (every-other) meeting to discuss current topics in commodity grain markets for producers looking to improve their grain marketing strategy and stay informed about current market conditions. The meeting is intended to be an open, informal discussion rather than a lecture or presentation. In this, any and all members of the agricultural community/those interested in learning more about commodity grain markets are invited to attend.
Currently, meetings will be held at the Cracker Barrel in Frederick located just off Rt. 85 at 7408 Shockley Drive, Frederick, MD 21704 on Friday mornings from 7:30 am – 8:30 am. The meetings will be held over a delicious breakfast, however attendees will be responsible for purchasing their own meals. The next meeting will be held on Friday, Jul 28, 2023. Meeting location and times may be subject to change to better suit the needs of the attending group and will be announced.
For additional clarity, the current meeting schedule for the next five meetings is as follows:
July 28, 2023
August 11, 2023
August 25, 2023
September 8, 2023
September 22, 2023
Attendees or interested parties are encouraged to complete the online form at the Frederick County Extension, Agriculture and Food Systems webpage or at https://go.umd.edu/FrederickGrain. Completion of the form is not required for attendance, however those who complete the form and provide an email address will receive additional information and timely updates of grain marketing topics, news, and market conditions between meetings.
Depending on group interest, expert speakers may be invited to attend and offer additional perspectives on marketing or market conditions at future meetings. For more information, comments, or questions please contact Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate, at mtownsen@umd.edu or (301) 600-3578. The UME-Frederick Ag&FS team looks forward to your attendance!
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This institution is an equal opportunity provider.
This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for fractionally higher supplies and ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are lowered 50 million bushels, as greater feed and residual use for 2022/23 more than offsets reductions in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast up 55 million bushels as greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report is partially offset by a 4.0-bushel reduction in yield to 177.5 bushels per acre. According to data from the National Centers for Environmental Information, harvested-area-weighted June precipitation data for the major Corn Belt states represented an extreme downward deviation from average. However, timely rainfall and cooler than normal temperatures for some of the driest parts of the Corn Belt during early July is expected to moderate the impact of June weather. For much of the crop the critical pollination period will be in the coming weeks. With supply rising fractionally and use unchanged, ending stocks are up 5 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.
Soybean
Soybean production is projected at 4.3 billion bushels, down 210 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 83.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 4.0 million from last month. The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 52.0 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2023/24 soybean supplies are reduced 185 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal domestic disappearance forecast. Soybean exports are reduced 125 million bushels to 1.85 billion on lower U.S. supplies and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 300 million bushels, down 50 million from last month. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.40 per bushel, up $0.30 from last month.
Wheat
Changes this month to the 2023/24 U.S. wheat outlook increase supplies and domestic use, leave exports unchanged, and increase ending stocks. Supplies are raised on larger production, which is up 74 million bushels to 1,739 million, on higher harvested area and yields. The first 2023/24 survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicates a decrease from last year. Conversely, winter wheat production is forecast higher on larger harvested area and higher yields. Gains for all wheat production are partly offset by smaller beginning stocks, which are lowered 18 million bushels to 580 million as indicated in the Grain Stocks report, issued June 30. The 2023/24 ending stocks are forecast at 592 million bushels, 30 million higher than last month. The projected season-average farm price is forecast at $7.50 per bushel, down $0.20 from last month.
Reports are for crop conditions up to July 6, 2023.
Western Maryland
Rain has been hit or miss here but crops are still looking good considering the erratic precipitation patterns of late. Barley harvest is complete and wheat harvest is in full swing. Disease was low but test weights and yields are still being accessed. Hay yields continue to suffer but hopefully El Nino will kick in and we will get more much needed precipitation.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.
Central Maryland
Frederick County has received notable rainfall in the last few weeks that has prevented potentially drastic crop condition reductions following the spell of hot and dry weather in May and June. Early corn is approaching the later stages of vegetative development, while most of the crop remains in the V8-9 stages. Soybeans are generally in notable shape, even with the early season drought. Scouted fields remain generally low in typical pests though Japanese Beetles have emerged and are maintaining a watchful eye. Soybean aphids were observed in two fields, however with more recent rains and populations well below IPM threshold values, they may remain an afterthought. Wheat harvest has progressed well with field average yields reported in the 80-110 bu/ac range. Crop moisture however has remained a touch higher than desirable. Additionally, maintain a watchful eye over earlier fields that have dried recently and have received rains–reports of low falling-numbers from local mills indicate the presence of sprouted wheat. Barley yields were outstanding as some growers noted personal bests in the 150-170 bu/ac range.—Mark Townsend, Frederick Co.
Northern Maryland
For the better part of 6 weeks, most of the region received very, very little rainfall; however, that has changed in the past two weeks where we have had multiple storms, bringing anywhere from an half inch to several inches of rain per storm. This rain was much-needed for the corn and soybean crop, as well as hay and pasture. Barley harvest wrapped up prior to the rains with very strong yields. Since wheat has matured it has been difficult to find enough dry weather to cut it. So far, wheat yields are very good with no DON but unfortunately test weights and falling numbers are declining in some areas. Earliest planted corn is in tassel, although most of it is only about 5-6’ tall. The dry April, May, and the bulk of June, coupled with relatively mild temperatures and low light intensity from the Canada wildfires, has resulted in some of the shortest corn in memory. Moisture is present as we go into tassel and silking, so hopefully we get decent pollination. Soybeans are also growing slowly but are rebounding; some early maturities are starting to flower. Regrowth on hay is very slow.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.
Upper and Mid Shore
Barley harvest finished during drought conditions with record yields. Wheat harvest has been underway for 2 weeks in between storms/ humidity/wildfire smoke. Test weight was above 60 lbs per bushel to start with, but as expected, has lowered after the stretch of rainy weather. Like barley, yields have been record breaking. While wheat harvest has been underway for 2 weeks, it’s only half complete. Even with 2 weeks of rainy weather, there are areas in the region that is still relatively dry. The storms have been spotty. Some areas have had 6 rain events with a grand total of less than an inch while other areas are over 5”. Corn and full season beans look much better, but will need significant additional rain for decent yields. With beans blooming and corn tasseling, farmers are concerned about poor light quality resulting from the smoke filled atmosphere from wildfires up north. This is a new phenomenon for our region with very little research data available. Let’s hope for west winds with blue sky!—Jim Lewis, Caroline Co.
Lower Shore
Wheat harvest is underway. Corn maturity is varied. Early planted corn is tasseling. Corn that was planted late is still in early vegetative stages. Double-crop soybean is being planted. Full season soybean is 6-12” tall on average, in vegetative stage. There were scattered rain storms over the past couple of weeks, with some areas receiving significantly more rain than others. Non-irrigated crops in areas that had limited rain are showing signs of water stress, particularly in sandier soils. Herbicide-resistant ragweed and marestail are apparent in fields across the region.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.
Southern Maryland
We have seen dry and we’ve seen wet this month. Most areas of the region received decent rains in the last two weeks. Crops responded well. Corn is now tasseling with moisture just in time for pollination. Our corn crop is much shorter in stature than normal, but the crop overall looks good. Soybeans follow much of the same story. Early planted beans have canopied. The barley crop is now off. The wheat harvest season has been challenging, with limited harvest windows. Good news is the wheat crop has been excellent in terms of both yield and quality. Double crop beans are going in as soon as the wheat comes off. Vegetable crops are just beginning to come off. Heavy rains have hampered quality of some vegetable crops.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.
Nathaniel Bruce, Farm Business Specialist, University of Delaware and Mark Townsend, Agriculture Agent Associate, University of Maryland Extension, Frederick County
June proved volatile for grain markets. To recap, the December 2023 contract rallied off its $4.90 lows from late-May, peaking at $6.29 on June 21st and has precipitously fallen back below $5.00 at the time of writing this article. As it does, the soft red winter wheat market followed suit in the September contract with a big swing from the $5.87 lows on June 1st to a high on June 26th at $7.70 only to plummet back to earth reaching $6.51 currently. No less, the November soybean market followed a similar pattern rising from $11.30 on June 1st to peaking at $13.77 on June 21st, and then tumbling back some in the last week of June only to find levity on the last day of the month.
It’s not difficult to convey the gravity of these swings: In one singular month, we saw a $1.39 gain and decline in the corn market, a $1.87 upswing and $1.19 downfall in the wheat market, and a $2.07 upswing with a $1.13 retracement followed by an $0.76 movement higher on the last trading day of the month in the soybean market.
The summary begs the questions: how can we explain the volatility of these markets and what can we do as producers to limit our risk to any further price loss?
Firstly, the phenomena we have encountered this last month can be described as the result of a “weather market”—a period of time in which traders make decisions based on current and prospective weather conditions that affect the production (supply) of a particular commodity in hopes of capturing a premium related to production risk. Put another way, this is a “supply-side” market driver as there is a risk to the volume of production.
The weather in question is that of the central United States as the region is under varying degrees of drought. The most recent USDA Drought Monitor (6/29/2023) report indicates that 53% of the contiguous United States is experiencing some level of drought. On a per crop basis the monitor indicates that 70% of corn growing regions and 63% of soybean growing regions are in some degree of drought. Reports in June indicated progressively higher levels of moisture stress in large swaths of the corn belt. As we well know, corn demands roughly an inch of rain each week when in the rapid growth stages and entering pollination. With this, traders bet on a reduction in yield for this year’s corn crop, thus raising the price through market actions.
Traders not only looked at retrospective reports like the drought monitor, but also analyzed weather forecasts for these regions. For much of the month, neither the GFS (U.S. based) nor the ECMWF (European based) weather models predicted any significant rainfall for these regions. In some instances, the models added further uncertainty as the GFS forecasted sporadic precipitation events while the ECMWF left the radar screen blank. On the ground, drought regions experienced high winds and high temperatures further drying out soils and inducing greater rates of transpiration from an already moisture-stressed crop.
With these factors at play, market participants found reason to purchase grain futures contracts or options in hopes of realizing some future increases in commodity prices. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reports the commitment of traders market positions in which the non-commercial speculative entities (aka “the funds”–referring to money managers like hedge funds or mutual funds) with significant market power were in a net short position by about 60-70k contracts of corn entering the month of June. As the month progressed, the most recent report indicates that these market participants held a 100-115k net long position (As of 6/27/2023). Effectively, this means that these market participants were betting on a decline in the corn futures market at the end of May, only to quickly reverse course and bet a far larger position on an increase in the corn futures market price. There is a significant delay in the release of these reports, so it is difficult to ascertain where the funds stand after the last week in June ending in a Friday sell-off in corn and wheat. Though current estimates place fund positions back to near neutral (equal quantity of long and short positions) in corn. Traders in the wheat futures market followed a similar path to corn, while traders in the soybean futures market are currently estimated to be in a significantly long position.
The weather trading continued later into the month; price action in the last week of June saw falling prices as regions of the Midwest realized modest precipitation accumulations. No less, the GFS and ECMWF weather models agreed on additional future precipitation events thus indicating a potential for salvage of the current crop.
To cap off an already topsy-turvy last week in June and generally volatile month, the USDA released Quarterly Grain Stocks and Planted Acreage reports on Friday, June 30th. The grain stocks report followed analysts estimates, however the planted acreage report unexpectedly and significantly deviated from the market sentiments. Reported planted corn acreage rose roughly 2 million acres from a previous prediction report, and an increase of about 5% from last year. Soybean acreage fell by about 5% compared to last year, which is about 4.2 million acres lower than the average trade estimate. Markets traded this supply-side news as corn fell back to prices not seen since December of 2020. On the other hand, the soybean market is trading back to levels from mid-June.
The volatility of these markets is unmistakably high. Not only is the current implied volatility of these markets (based on options prices) higher than 60-80% of all trading days in the previous year, but trading strategies involving options require larger investments.
Figure 1. Corn 2012 vs 2023.
Marketing a crop in these conditions is undoubtedly challenging. We may look to previous years for guidance, though even this is uncertain. Analysts have likened the run-up in the grain markets to those in 2012 when a similar drought induced crop failures across the Midwest. Currently, there exists a 0.56 correlation coefficient between the 2012 December contract and the 2023 December contract (Figure 1). In truth, this exact discussion is nothing new; many marketing professionals and memorious farmers recall the drought of 2012 that spurred a dramatic run-up in the corn price reaching a peak of $8.49 on August 10th, 2012 and will refer to this observation whenever a drought emerges in the Midwest. Although, there is a correlation in prices between Dec’12 Corn and Dec’23 corn, the fundamental supply and demand picture is vastly different between 2012 and 2023 as there is nearly 4% larger Stocks-to-Use ratio in 2023 than 2012 given the current lack-luster export, feed, and ethanol demand we have experienced for the current marketing year.
Figure 2. USDA WASDE June 2012 vs. June 2023.
Other more bearish investors have noted that the current price trend is more similar to 1992 in which an early season drought induced volatility and rising prices. Contrary to 2012, the 1992 corn market saw a dramatic price decline after timely and significant rains busted the drought and produced a near trend-line crop yield.
So how does one effectively market a crop this year? The first step as always is to know the cost of production taking into actual input price figures to uncover an operation’s breakeven price and yield. Yield does play a critical role in determining these figures, though as we know yield is not the sole driver of profitability. Please refer to the University of Maryland Extension website for enterprise budget templates here: https://extension.umd.edu/programs/agriculture-food-systems/program-areas/farm-and-agribusiness-management/grain-marketing.
Certainly a next step would be to look for ways to offset future price risk. Depending on the level of familiarity, options strategies could offer additional downside protection. However, this is most commonly accomplished by forward contracting some of the new crop. At the time of writing, the soybean market continues to rise modestly above estimated cost of production figures for Central Maryland. Producers may find these prices profitable and would be well advised to limit potential downside risk.
Marketing professionals offer that producers may find shelter in short-run run-ups to sell new crop corn and stored wheat. Some analysts predict that the USDA may have to revise yield estimates lower given the potential damage done to the corn crop of the Midwest. The market may react to this revision lower, whereby the watchful marketer could capitalize on a small upward price movement. Yes it is tempting to wait for the next larger rally in the market, but waiting to find the top of the curve may prove far more risky than taking smaller profits. A wise farmer once said that he stayed in business for many years because, “I always took my profits too early.”
Ray Weil, Professor of Soil Science | rweil@umd.edu University of Maryland, College Park
Planting Green refers to no-till planting a primary crop into an actively growing cover crop before killing it mechanically or with an herbicide. This advanced soil health practice allows cover crops to grow longer, offering improved soil health and long-term agronomic outcomes. But for many farmers, the idea of planting through shoulder-high cover crops seems risky. All that cover crop biomass might result in poor crop stands and more slugs. Fortunately, a few farmers have been planting green now for many years, and their experience and research data show that great stands and yields can be achieved with proper planning and equipment adjustments. Research also suggests that planting green may increase soil water available to the crop during the heat of summer, and even reduce slug damage instead of exacerbating it.
That’s why we (a group of University of Maryland Researchers and Extension Educators) have partnered with pioneering farmers who have long-term experience and success in planting green on their own operations across a variety of farm enterprises and soil types. The team is planning to conduct field research, on-farm trials, and demonstration days to better support Maryland farmers interested in adopting this enhanced cover-crop management practice.
We are looking to collaborate with farmers who might host replicated on-farm trials comparing several treatments, or simple side-by-side strip demonstrations (farmers would choose specific cover crops and termination strategies) – all supported by the research team and a panel of experienced farmers. Data would be collected and aggregated to evaluate soil health, agronomic, and farm management outcomes. Farmers could choose to enroll in our farmer-to-farmer mentoring program to receive additional technical assistance from researchers and farmer-mentors experienced in planting green.
It’s definitely time to plan your next cover crop moves for the coming fall and spring. If you are interested in participating (especially if you have slug problems!) or just want to learn more about cover crops and planting green, please contact one of us as soon as possible!
Sarah Hirsh, UMD Extension Educator, Somerset County: (410) 651-1350 shirsh@umd.edu
Dwayne Joseph, UMD Extension Educator, Kent County: (443) 480-8369, dwaynej@umd.edu
Mark Townsend, UMD Extension Educator, Frederick County: (301) 600-3578, mtownsen@umd.edu
Ray Weil, Professor of Soil Science, UMD, Dept. of Env. Sci. &Tech: (301) 405-1314, rweil@umd.edu
Andrew Kness, Senior Agriculture Agent | akness@umd.edu University of Maryland Extension, Harford County
Each year, Extension faculty from across the US compile fungicide efficacy charts for foliar diseases of corn and soybean. These charts list the major foliar diseases of corn and soybean and the relative effectiveness of foliar fungicides for managing those diseases. Ratings are based on the latest data from field trials across the US. Use the carts to aid your selection of an effective fungicide program for your crop. Corn and soybean charts can be accessed online from the Crop Protection Network.
Reports are for crop conditions up to June 1, 2023.
Western Maryland
To say we are dry would be an understatement. Corn planting is winding down and the last of the full-season beans will soon be finished up too. Barley and wheat are in full head a bit ahead of normal, whatever that is. The dry weather is a good thing for cereals as the conditions are poor for fungal growth. It will be interesting to see what effect the dry weather will have on test weight and yield. First cutting alfalfa and most of the grass hay is in the barn or silo. Rain will be important very soon for forage regrowth and corn and bean growth. The cool evenings and overnights have been the only blessing but heat is on the way.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.
Central Maryland
Frederick County has finished planting corn. There may be the occasional field that remains, but this is the exception. Early corn is at the V4-5 stage while later planted fields are approaching V2. Seedling diseases have been nearly non-existent in scouted fields, though wireworm pressure has been observed in both corn and soybean fields. Soybeans are 90% planted; early beans are around V2 while most are VC-V1. The majority of the hay crop is made and in the barn. Annual weeds have emerged and are approaching a foot tall in some fields, though weed pressure has remained limited given the dry weather and resulting effective burndown applications. Second cutting alfalfa is underway, some weevil pressure had been observed in the occasional field though generally there has been relatively limited pressure. Most barley is at or near soft-dough stage, while the wheat crop has finished flowering and is moving into grain fill. Both small grain crops appear in good to great condition given the limited disease pressure.—Mark Townsend, Frederick Co.
Northern Maryland
We got through the entire month of May without any measurable precipitation. Such weather has made for great conditions for making hay, and this is one of the few times in recent memory where pretty much all of the first cutting hay crop was put up before June 1; although yields did appear to suffer in some fields due to the dry weather. 99% of the corn crop is planted and emerged, with earliest planted corn around V5-6. Almost all full-season soybeans have been planted and are anywhere from just planted to V3-4. Both corn and soybeans have yet to show wilting, but they are both growing very slowly due to the lack of rain. Fortunately we are running well below with temperatures in the 70s most of the month. Wheat is just starting to turn and appears to have very little disease pressure; we will see how the dry spring affects yield and test weight. We are hoping for a bit of rain in the coming weeks.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.
Upper and Mid Shore
Early planted corn greened up, but definitely has reduced yield potential. Later planted corn looks great- good color and uniform. Early beans are finally outgrowing slug feeding. Like corn, later beans look great. Barley harvest will begin 1st week of June. Wheat is starting to turn. There was great hay made last week. Soil conditions across the region are getting dry.—Jim Lewis, Caroline Co.
Lower Shore
Wheat and barley are drying down. Corn has been planted, and is generally around V1 to V5 stage. Most soybean has been planted and early soybean plantings have emerged. Herbicide-resistant weeds, such as common ragweed, marestail, and palmer amaranth, are starting to emerge. Scout and spray early to stay ahead on control. Some farmers have utilized late-terminated cover crops to help manage weed pressure through providing a mulch on the soil surface. Deer are prevalent in fields and causing damage on corn and soybean seedlings.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.
Southern Maryland
Temperatures finally touched the 80°F mark this week. Cooler temperatures and lack of rainfall has slowed crop progress in May. Most corn fields are a kaleidoscope of yellow shades and uneven stands. Black cutworms, slugs, wireworms and seed corn maggot are active across the region. We received scattered showers last weekend that helped crop conditions improve in most areas. Soybeans follow much of the same story. Early planted beans look decent. Barley is drying down with harvest expected any day. Wheat will not be far behind. Ryegrass continues to be a challenge for producers in both burndown situations in corn and beans, as well as small grains. My thought is the cooler weather is affecting the performance of glyphosate, especially on larger plants. The pockets of glyphosate resistant ryegrass are expanding in our area as well. The drier weather has been good for making hay- we saw a lot of balers in the field last week.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.
The 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up more than 10 percent from last year on increases to both area and yield. The yield projection of 181.5 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2022 time period. With beginning stocks up slightly, total corn supplies are forecast at 16.7 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18. Total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 is forecast to rise about 5 percent relative to a year ago on higher domestic use and exports. Food, seed, and industrial use is projected to rise 55 million bushels to 6.7 billion. Corn used for ethanol is projected to increase 1 percent, based on expectations of modest growth in motor gasoline consumption and ethanol’s inclusion rate into gasoline. Feed and residual use is projected higher on a larger crop and lower expected prices. U.S. corn exports for 2023/24 are forecast to rise 325 million bushels to 2.1 billion, as lower prices support a sharp increase in global trade following the decline seen during 2022/23. U.S. market share is expected to increase slightly albeit remain below the average of the past 5 years. Exports are higher for Argentina and Brazil, with the former reflecting a return to normal weather conditions after a drought during 2022/23. Despite a rebound in U.S. exports, Brazil is forecast to be the world’s largest exporter of corn for the second consecutive year. Exports for Ukraine are projected to decline based on lower production prospects. With total U.S. corn supply rising more than use, 2023/24 ending stocks are up 805 million bushels from last year and if realized would be the highest in absolute terms since 2016/17. Stocks would represent 15.3 percent of use, the highest since 2018/19. The season-average farm price is projected at $4.80 per bushel, down $1.80 from 2022/23.
Soybean
The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, and ending stocks, and lower exports compared with 2022/23. The soybean crop is projected at 4.51 billion bushels, up 5 percent from last year’s crop mainly on higher yields. With lower beginning stocks partly offsetting increased production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.75 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2022/23. Total U.S. oilseed production for 2023/24 is projected at 132.8 million tons, up 6.9 million from 2022/23 mainly on higher soybean production. Production forecasts are also higher for canola, peanuts, and cottonseed. The U.S. soybean crush for 2023/24 is projected at 2.31 billion bushels, up 90 million from the 2022/23 forecast on favorable crush margins and strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, which is projected to increase 900 million pounds to 12.5 billion. Domestic soybean meal disappearance is forecast to increase 2 percent from 2022/23 on lower soybean meal prices and modest growth primarily in poultry production. U.S. soybean meal exports are forecast at 14.8 million short tons, leaving the U.S share of global trade slightly above the prior 5-year average. U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 1.98 billion bushels, down 40 million from 2022/23 with strong competition from increasing South American production and limited gains in global import demand. U.S. ending stocks for 2023/24 are projected at 335 million bushels, up 120 million from the revised 2022/23 forecast. Soybean and product prices are all forecast lower for 2023/24. The 2023/24 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $12.10 per bushel compared with $14.20 per bushel in 2022/23.
Wheat
The 2023/24 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies and exports, increased domestic use, and smaller stocks compared with 2022/23. U.S. wheat supplies are forecast lower than last year with smaller beginning stocks and only slightly larger production. All wheat production is projected at 1,659 million bushels, up modestly from last year on increased harvested area. However, the harvest-to-plant ratio is down from last year with above-average abandonment in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The all wheat yield, projected at 44.7 bushels per acre, is 1.8 bushels lower than last year. The first survey-based production forecast for 2023/24 winter wheat is up 2 percent from last year as higher Soft Red Winter production more than offsets a decline in Hard Red Winter and White wheat. Total 2023/24 domestic use is projected at 1,112 million bushels, up 1 percent from last year, primarily on increased feed and residual use. Exports are projected at 725 million bushels, 50 million lower than last year. Ending stocks are projected 11 percent lower than last year and the lowest in 16 years. The projected 2023/24 season-average farm price is $8.00 per bushel, down $0.85 from last year’s record.
Reports are for crop conditions up to May 4, 2023.
Western Maryland
Welcome rains fell over the weekend but cooler temperatures will stall the corn that has been planted. Most of the triticale has been harvested and the barley is in head. First-cutting alfalfa will soon be mowed when sun and rain allow. Corn planting will continue at breakneck speed since soybeans are haunting farmers from their seed sheds. Thus far peaches and apples are faring ok as long as the nighttime cold temps don’t drop too far. Spirits are high since our recent rains and farmers are eternal optimists.—Jeff Semler, Washington Co.
Central Maryland
We have finally received some much needed rain, with areas around the county getting a total of 2-3 inches in the past several days. However, this cool and wet weather has slowed planting, as well as crop and summer annual weed emergence. A majority of corn has been planted. Some emerged corn is yellow due to the cooler weather. Barley and wheat are heading.—Kelly Nichols, Montgomery Co.
Much of the small grain acres for forage have been harvested in the last three to four weeks. Many wheat acres are moving past flag-leaf and into heading, though this has been slowed with recent weather. Barley across the county, though short, is headed and into flowering. Some early planted corn has emerged and generally appears okay, however the cooler temperatures have slowed development and in some cases resulted in a few more yellow leaves. Not many soybean acres have been planted thus far, though the ones that have are not yet emerged.—Mark Townsend, Frederick Co.
Northern Maryland
The season was off to an early start, with most everyone that had a corn planter had it rolling full tilt by April 20 or so, which is normally around the time folks are just playing around with planter settings. Since last week, the rains came and temperatures took a nose dive and we went from hot and dry to cool and wet, which has stopped planting. Right now a good majority of the corn crop is planted, with some emerged and looking ok but it is probably wondering where the warm weather went. Some soybeans have been planted, but not a lot. This weather brings the possibility of slug pressure. Early wheat varieties have already flowered; later varieties should be heading in the next few days.—Andy Kness, Harford Co.
Upper and Mid Shore
We were ahead of schedule planting until the heavy rains last week. Soil moisture is optimum/excessive with last weeks 4-6” rain. Early planted corn has faded to a yellow hue with the recent cold weather. Early planted beans have been providing slugs, breakfast, lunch, and dinner with cloudy damp weather. Planters are full and tractors are fueled up waiting for dry sunny weather. Small grain has headed and is being sprayed with scab protectant fungicides. A little dot of hay was made before the rains.—Jim Lewis, Caroline Co.
Lower Shore
After a very dry couple of weeks, we had a heavy rainfall last weekend, ranging from 3-4 inches across the lower shore. Corn planting began before the rain, and now farmers are waiting for the ground to dry out to continue. Some farmers are concerned they will have to replant some corn acreage planted prior to the rain. Winter wheat is looking good and heading out. Fungicides are being sprayed on wheat. Most cover crops have been terminated, but those that remain look great and will provide a nice mulch for reducing summer weed pressure.—Sarah Hirsh, Somerset Co.
Southern Maryland
Planters have been running for weeks now. May-like temperatures in April brought about nearly ideal conditions, and many folks rolled the dice with early planting. It appears it was a good bet as stands have emerged well with no frost. I suspect we are close to 90% planted in So MD. We have many acres of early planted soybeans again this year. Rain was hard to come by with soil conditions becoming dry a couple of weeks ago. Rain 10 days ago and last weekend was much needed though it delayed planting progress. The current week of cooler weather has slowed crop progress, but overall we are in good shape. With recent rains, keep an eye out for slugs in newly emerged fields. In other crops, barley is headed out with some fields turning already. Wheat is headed and flowering now. We have seen an extended flowering period in wheat this year, with a lot of variability in flowering across the same fields. Alfalfa weevil pressure has been high this year. Be sure to scout fields for weevil injury. I have seen a lot of fields with a white cast due to severe feeding injury. In our area, pyrethroids are no longer working well due to resistance. Steward EC is the best alternative. On the fruit and vegetable front, plasticulture strawberries has an excellent growing season and are ripening now. I expect a bumper crop of berries this year. All of our main season vegetable crops are preparing to go in the ground this week.—Ben Beale, St. Mary’s Co.
